By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
The Road to the Kentucky
Derby continues this Saturday with the running of the $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby
(G3) at Tampa Bay Downs. Meanwhile at Santa Anita, the $100,000 Santa Ysabel
(G3) serves as the latest stop on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks.
Let's take a look at both
races:
Tampa Bay Derby (G3)
The 1 1/16-mile Tampa Bay
Derby typically draws a competitive field, and this year is no exception. There
are many viable win contenders among the 10 entrants.
One runner who's bound to
draw plenty of betting support is #7 No
More Time, a gate-to-wire winner of the 1 1/16-mile Sam F. Davis (G3) at
Tampa last month. The speedy son of Not This Time figures to be prominent from
the outset, especially after breezing a bullet half-mile in :47 4/5 last
Saturday. But No More Time's Sam F. Davis triumph yielded a modest 80 Beyer
Speed Figure, suggesting #5 Domestic
Product might be a more likely winner of the Tampa Bay Derby.
Domestic Product impressed
when employing pace-tracking tactics to dominate a 1 1/8-mile maiden special
weight at Aqueduct last fall by 4 1/2 lengths, counting fellow Tampa Bay Derby
entrant #10 Sturdy among his beaten
rivals. Domestic Product subsequently finished seventh when joining the Road to
the Kentucky Derby in Aqueduct's 1 1/8-mile Remsen (G2), but I won't judge his
defeat too harshly. Domestic Product settled behind the leaders over a strongly
speed-favoring track, and it turns out the Remsen was a very deep race,
producing Fountain of Youth (G2) 1-2 finishers Dornoch and Le Dom Bro, Risen
Star (G2) hero Sierra Leone, and Jerome S. winner Drum Roll Please.
Domestic Product himself
returned to action in the 1 1/16-mile Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream Park, where
he was compromised by racing off the pace against slow fractions of :25.03,
:50.53, and 1:14.25 set by gate-to-wire winner Hades. But despite this
disadvantage, Domestic Product rallied gamely to finish second by two lengths,
ahead of Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) winner and champion two-year-old male
Fierceness.
I'm optimistic the Tampa Bay
Derby will unfold at a quicker tempo, opening the door for Domestic Product to
deliver a career-best performance. The 87 Beyer Speed Figure he posted in the
Holy Bull tops the Tampa Bay Derby field, so any improvement at all from
Domestic Product can land him in the winner's circle.
Santa Ysabel (G3)
Eight sophomore fillies will
race 1 1/16 miles in the Santa Ysabel, a race Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert
has won a record eight times. Baffert's tally includes three consecutive
victories with Beautiful Gift (2021), Eda (2022), and Faiza (2023).
Baffert can pick up a fourth
straight Santa Ysabel and a ninth win overall courtesy of #4 Kinza. The undefeated daughter of Carpe Diem debuted in a
six-furlong maiden special weight on Dec. 29 at Santa Anita and left no doubt
about her superiority, pressing a quick pace before taking over to dominate by
7 1/2 lengths.
Kinza made her stakes and
route debut in the Feb. 10 Las Virgenes (G3) racing one mile at Santa Anita,
and the result was much the same. After carving out a good pace, Kinza stayed
on down the homestretch and widened her advantage through the final furlong to
beat runaway Santa Ynez (G3) winner Kopion by two lengths in the good time of
1:37.03.
Kopion has opted to skip the
Santa Ysabel, leaving Kinza as hands-down the filly to beat under Santa Anita's
leading jockey Juan Hernandez, who has won at a 32% rate teaming up with
Baffert over the last two months. Kinza looks like the "speed of the speed" in
the Santa Ysabel field and should have every chance to record another
gate-to-wire victory.
#5 She's a Tempest is
a logical contender for the minor awards after finishing third in the Las
Virgenes, beaten 3 1/2 lengths by Kinza. She previously led almost all the way
to win a one-mile maiden special weight at Santa Anita by a head over next-out
maiden winner #1 Ultimate Authority.
But don't count debut winner
#6 Nay V Belle out of the mix. She finished
fast from off the pace to win a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Santa
Anita last month for red-hot trainer Mark Glatt, a 31% winner at Santa Anita
this meet and a 21% winner with horses running long for the first time. Nay V
Belle is eligible to challenge for a top-three finish while stepping up in
distance under internationally renowned jockey Frankie Dettori, a 36% winner
teaming up with Glatt over the last two months.
Now it's your turn! Who do you
like in the Tampa Bay Derby and Santa Ysabel?
*****
Want to test your handicapping skills against fellow Unlocking Winners readers? Check out the Unlocking Winners contest page—there's a new challenge every week! (Please note: older contest entries can be found here.)
*****
The Unlocking Winners Road to the Kentucky Derby Handicapping Challenge is back! Check out the special contest page to play along.
J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
