By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
With the Road to the
Kentucky Derby taking a one-week hiatus before the final round of preps, the
graded stakes slate this weekend looks a little light.
However, there are two intriguing
sprint stakes on the agenda. The $250,000 Whitmore S. (G3) at Oaklawn Park and
the $100,000 San Carlos S. (G3) at Santa Anita have both drawn small but
quality fields with fast favorites in the mix.
Let's take a look at both
races:
Whitmore S. (G3)
Seven capable sprinters will
face off over six furlongs in the Whitmore, including #3 Ryvit (2-1), who posted a flashy 99 Beyer Speed Figure when
taking an allowance over this track and distance by two lengths last month. The
four-year-old colt won a bevy of sprint stakes last year, including the Chick
Lang S. (G3), and boasts a 4-for-6 record at Oaklawn Park.
But there are a couple of
possible chinks in Ryvit's armor. For starters, he tends to race on or near the
lead, and there's quite a bit of speed in the Whitmore field—#5 Ninja Warrior (5-1) and #6 Jaxon Traveler (12-1) in particular could
apply early pressure to Ryvit. And one of Ryvit's Oaklawn defeats came when finishing
fifth in the six-furlong Ring the Bell S. behind #2 Tejano Twist (9-5), a stretch runner who figures to receive a
favorable setup this Saturday.
Tejano Twist has been
winning stakes since 2021, but he's gotten particularly good in recent starts.
On Nov. 4, he rallied strongly to beat a deep field in the six-furlong Bet On
Sunshine S. at Churchill Downs, earning a 101 Beyer. On Dec. 9, he launched a
last-to-first charge to dominate the Ring the Bell by five lengths while Ryvit
faded after an early duel.
Tejano Twist's latest effort
came in the Feb. 3 King Cotton S. sprinting six furlongs at Oaklawn. Over a
sloppy track that played kindly toward horses racing inside, Tejano Twist
rallied wide to finish second by 3 1/4 lengths against gate-to-wire winner
Skelly, who was recording his seventh straight victory. The form was flattered
when Skelly came back to finish a strong second in the Riyadh Dirt Sprint (G3)
in Saudi Arabia.
Skelly isn't entered in the
Whitmore, so assuming Tejano Twist gets a fair track and a decent pace to work
with, I expect him to comfortably bounce back to the winner's circle.
San Carlos S. (G3)
Although seven horses have
entered the seven-furlong San Carlos, one stands out as the most likely winner:
#1 The Chosen Vron, who has been
nothing less than a winning machine since his debut in December 2020. To be
precise, he's won 15 of 20 starts, with a second and two thirds for good
measure.
Many of The Chosen Vron's
victories have come against California-bred company, but his forays into the
graded stakes ranks have been quite productive. As a three-year-old in 2021, he
won the 6 1/2-furlong Lazaro Barrera (G3) and 1 1/16-mile Affirmed (G3). And
last summer, he battled to a tenacious victory in the six-furlong Bing Crosby
(G1).
The Chosen Vron enters the
San Carlos having won 10 of his last 11 starts. His lone defeat during that
streak came when fifth (beaten only 5 1/4 lengths) in the 2023 Breeders' Cup
Sprint (G1). He's bounced back from the Breeders' Cup to easily beat
California-breds in the seven-furlong Cary Grant S. and six-furlong Don
Valpredo California Cup Sprint S., so with his hot form and consistently strong
Beyer Speed Figures (which often reach the triple-digit range), The Chosen Vron
looms as a formidable favorite in the San Carlos. I'll be surprised if he
loses.
Second place looks like a
battle between #2 Elwood Blues, a
Bob Baffert trainee with three straight victories under his belt, and #4 Ghost of Midnight, who has likewise
won three in a row for hot conditioner Mark Glatt. Elwood Blues has run a bit
faster on the Beyer scale, but Ghost of Midnight has won three of his four
sprints starts by daylight margins and should finish strongly while cutting
back in distance off a pair of allowance optional claiming wins racing one mile
at Santa Anita.
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Whitmore and the San Carlos?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
