By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
The Road to the Kentucky
Derby makes a pivotal stop at Keeneland this Saturday for the $1 million Blue
Grass (G1).
Although the Blue Grass hasn't
produced a Kentucky Derby winner since Street Sense in 2007, a strong field has
turned out for the 2024 edition, led by two colts who rank among the current
favorites for the Derby: #4 Dornoch (3-1)
and #10 Sierra Leone (2-1).
Dornoch and Sierra Leone
have already faced off once over the 1 1/8-mile distance of the Blue Grass. In a
deep renewal of the Remsen (G2) at Aqueduct last December, Dornoch got the
better of Sierra Leone by a nose. But there are reasons to believe the outcome
will reverse in the Blue Grass.
In the Remsen, Dornoch had an
experience advantage. He'd already started three times, finishing second in a Saratoga
maiden special weight and Monmouth Park's Sapling S. before breaking his maiden
at Keeneland by 6 1/2 lengths. The Remsen marked his third route race, whereas Sierra
Leone was making only his second start (and his two-turn debut) after winning a
one-mile maiden special weight at Aqueduct.
Furthermore, the Remsen took
place over a muddy, sealed track that played strongly in favor of speed horses.
Dornoch carved out the pace and enjoyed a much better setup than Sierra Leone,
who trailed the 10-horse field by a dozen lengths early on. Despite this
disadvantage, Sierra Leone launched a giant homestretch rally and actually led past
the eighth pole before Dornoch battled back to narrowly prevail.
Dornoch and Sierra Leone have
since gone their separate ways, with each winning a Road to the Kentucky Derby
qualifier to kick off 2024. Dornoch led all the way to win the 1 1/16-mile Fountain
of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream Park, while Sierra Leone closed from ninth to first
in the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds.
At first glance, the
performances seem comparable. But dig into the details, and Sierra Leone's effort
becomes more impressive. Three of the favorites scratched from the Fountain of
Youth, including a couple of speed horses, leaving Dornoch to cruise on an
uncontested lead through fractions of :24.39, :47.14, and 1:11.43. He
ultimately edged away in a drive to win by 1 3/4 lengths over Le Dom Bro and
Frankie's Empire, who subsequently finished ninth and sixth in the Florida
Derby (G1).
Sierra Leone, on the other
hand, overcame modest fractions of :24.32, :49.67, and 1:14.74 over a sloppy
track to win the Risen Star by half a length over pacesetter Track Phantom, who
had previously won the Lecomte (G3) and Gun Runner S. Furthermore, Sierra Leone
finished 1 3/4 lengths ahead of Smarty Jones S. winner Catching Freedom and 6
1/4 lengths clear of Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) hero Honor Marie, two talented
runners who returned to finish 1-2 in the Louisiana Derby (G2). In other words,
Sierra Leone overcame an unfavorable pace scenario to beat a deep field in the
Risen Star.
Cementing Sierra Leone as
the horse to beat in the Blue Grass is the record of his trainer, four-time
Eclipse Award winner Chad Brown. When a Brown trainee shows Kentucky Derby
potential at age two, he typically gives them a two-prep three-year-old
campaign in which they improve sharply in their second run of the Derby year. Examples
abound:
-
Normandy Invasion,
beaten a nose when second in the Remsen, kicked off his three-year-old year with
a fifth-place finish in the Risen Star before improving to run second by less
than one length in the Wood Memorial (G1).
-
Practical Joke won
the Hopeful (G1) and Champagne (G1) at age two, but was beaten 5 3/4 lengths when
starting his three-year-old season with a second in the Fountain of Youth. He
ran much better next time, finishing second by only three-quarters of a length
in the Blue Grass.
-
Good Magic, voted champion
two-year-old male after winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), was beaten to
third-place when starting his sophomore campaign in the Fountain of Youth, but quickly
bounced back to win the Blue Grass.
-
Highly Motivated won
the Nyquist S. as a juvenile, but struggled in his three-year-old debut,
finishing third in the Gotham (G3). One month later, he pushed two-time
champion Essential Quality to the limit in the Blue Grass, finishing second by
a neck.
-
Zandon followed a
similar path to Sierra Leone. After winning his debut, he finished second by a
nose in the Remsen. But Zandon could only manage a non-threatening third-place
finish in the Risen Star before bouncing back to win the Blue Grass in his
second start at age three.
The fact Sierra Leone
conquered a strong Risen Star field in his three-year-old debut bodes well for
his long-term potential. History suggests we'll see Sierra Leone move forward
in the Blue Grass, setting the stage for another victory. And who knows?
Normandy Invasion, Practical Joke, Good Magic, and Zandon all moved forward
again in their third starts at age three, recording top-five finishes in the
Kentucky Derby. A similar trajectory for Sierra Leone could land him in the
Kentucky Derby winner's circle.
Sierra Leone is my top pick
in the Blue Grass, but I'll also give a shout-out to #2 Be You (8-1) as a midrange longshot worth considering. The son
of Curlin debuted in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Saratoga last
summer, finishing second by a nose against future Arkansas Derby (G1) runner-up
Just Steel while coming home 3 1/2 lengths ahead of subsequent Breeders'
Futurity (G1) winner Locked.
Be You subsequently finished
fourth in the Hopeful (G1) and third in the American Pharoah (G1) before
regressing in a couple of maiden special weight routes at Churchill Downs and
Gulfstream. He appeared to be off form until he cut back in distance for a
seven-furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park; after settling a couple
lengths off a decent pace, he charged home to win by 2 1/2 lengths.
It's possible the cutback in
distance triggered Be You's rebound, but it's also possible he's finally
figuring things out and moving forward in a meaningful way. Two bullet half-mile
workouts at Palm Beach Downs suggest he's ready for another big run under five-time
Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., so don't leave Be You off your
tickets.
Good luck!
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
