By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
Barely more than two weeks
out from the 2024 Kentucky Derby (G1), all the prep races have been contested and
the field is coming into sharp focus. It's time to analyze the prospective
entries and look for live longshots capable of crashing the superfecta at
double-digit odds.
With this goal in mind, here
are a trio of longshots I'm considering backing in this year's Derby:
Domestic Product
Domestic Product caught my
eye when he dominated a 1 1/8-mile maiden special weight at Aqueduct last fall.
After tracking a slow pace, he finished fast (final three furlongs in :36.66)
to win by 4 1/2 lengths.
Since then, Domestic Product
has encountered one bad setup after another. In the 1 1/8-mile Remsen (G2) at
Aqueduct, Domestic Product settled in fourth position over a muddy and strongly
speed-favoring track before giving way to finish seventh behind Dornoch, who
led virtually all the way.
Back on a fast track for the
1 1/16-mile Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream, Domestic Product was compromised by
settling as many as three lengths behind pedestrian fractions of :25.03,
:50.53, and 1:14.25. Despite this obstacle, he rallied gamely to finish second,
1 1/2 lengths ahead of Kentucky Derby favorite Fierceness.
Domestic Product encountered
an even slower pace in the 1 1/16-mile Tampa Bay Derby (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs,
rating a couple of lengths behind snail-like fractions of :25.25, :51.14, and
1:16.21. But he refused to be defeated, sprinting his final three furlongs in a
blazing :35.01 (and his final furlong in :11.77) to prevail by a neck over the
pace-tracking Sam F. Davis (G3) winner No More Time.
The point is, Domestic
Product has qualified to the Kentucky Derby despite receiving poor setups in
three straight stakes. He's repeatedly shown a strong finishing kick on fast
tracks, and while entering the Kentucky Derby off an eight-week layoff is a
question mark, I believe Domestic Product has a shot to land a top-four finish
under five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr.
Honor Marie
We know Honor Marie likes
Churchill Downs. The son of champion Honor Code boasts a 3-2-1-0 record at the
Kentucky Derby host track, highlighted by a stretch-running score in the 1
1/16-mile Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) last fall. Modest early fractions of
:23.70, :48.45, and 1:13.40 didn't lend Honor Marie any advantages, yet he
clocked his final three furlongs in a sharp :36.79 to get up and win by two
lengths.
Honor Marie didn't fare as
well when kicking off 2024 in the Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds, rallying
only belatedly from 11th position to finish fifth. But the top four finishers
were Blue Grass (G1) winner Sierra Leone, Lecomte (G3) hero Track Phantom,
Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Catching Freedom, and Wood Memorial (G2) victor Resilience,
so we can forgive Honor Marie for faltering against a deep field in his first
start off a three-month layoff. Even in defeat, he ran his final three furlongs
in approximately :37.27.
Honor Marie improved
significantly in his second start of 2024. In the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby
(G2) at Fair Grounds, he rallied wide to finish second by one length against
Catching Freedom. By hand-timing the replay of the race, I gauge that Honor
Marie ran his final three furlongs in :37.01.
In short, Honor Marie has
finished up strongly in three straight Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifiers. I
can certainly envision a scenario where Honor Marie rallies from far behind to
crack the Kentucky Derby superfecta
T O Password
Undefeated UAE Derby (G2)
winner Forever Young is considered the top Kentucky Derby contender from Japan,
but don't underestimate T O Password. The lightly raced colt is 2-for-2 and heads
to Churchill Downs with a promising profile.
T O Password showed speed
when winning his debut racing 1,800 meters (about 1 1/8 miles) at Kyoto, racing
in second place before finishing his final 600 meters (about three furlongs) in
:37.5 to win by two lengths. He was particularly strong through the final 200
meters (about one furlong), which elapsed in :12.1.
T O Password showed a
similar turn-of-foot when stepping up in class for the 1,800-meter Fukuryu S.
at Nakayama, the final stop on the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby. After
setting fractions of :24.8, :51.3, and 1:16.2, T O Password ran his final 600
meters in :37.9 to hold off a deep closer and win by a head in 1:54.1.
It's important to note that
dirt tracks in Japan tend to play quite slowly, and the fact T O Password has
twice finished in under :38 while racing 1,800 meters is respectable. Remember
Master Fencer, the Japanese raider who finished seventh (upgraded to sixth via
disqualification) at 58-1 in the 2019 Kentucky Derby? He exited a runner-up
finish in the Fukuryu, in which he finished up in :37.1 to record a final time
of 1:53.4.
T O Password is bound to
encounter a faster pace in the Kentucky Derby, and that's a question mark. But
if he's able to adapt to an off-the-pace running style, I don't think we can
dismiss the possibility of T O Password launching a homestretch rally to finish
in the top four, especially if the track is sloppy. His sire, Copano Rickey,
repeatedly thrived over sloppy and muddy tracks while winning multiple local
Group 1 races on Japan's National Association of Racing (NAR) circuit.
Now it's your turn! Which
live longshots do you like in the 2024 Kentucky Derby?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
