By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
How fast a pace will we see
unfold in the 2024 Kentucky Derby (G1)? That's a key question handicappers must
debate as they search for the most likely winner on the first Saturday in May.
The last two years have
featured hot fractions favorable to stretch runners. In 2022, UAE Derby (G2)
runner-up Summer Is Tomorrow set the fastest opening quarter-mile in Kentucky
Derby history—:21.78. The half-mile and six-furlong fractions (:45.36 and
1:10.34) were also fast, setting the stage for 80-1 longshot Rich Strike to
successfully rally from 18th place. Six of the top seven finishers were racing
between 13th and 20th after the opening quarter.
In 2023, the fractions set
by Blue Grass (G1) runner-up Verifying were :22.35, :45.73, and 1:10.11, fast
enough for 15-1 longshot Mage to close from 16th place and take home top
honors. The third- and fourth-place finishers closed from as far back as 16th
and 13th place.
These fast fractions stood
in contrast to 2021, when Medina Spirit (since disqualified due to a positive
drug test) escaped with easy fractions of :23.09, :46.70, and 1:11.21 before
crossing the wire first by half a length. The top four finishers raced no
farther back than seventh place at any call.
Obviously the pace of the
Kentucky Derby can determine whether a speed horse or a closer has the best
shot at winning. And in analyzing the prospective entries for this year's Derby
field, it seems there's a good chance the pace will be favorable to a
stretch-running winner.
Check out the possible
pacesetters in this year's Derby:
-
Expected favorite Fierceness has shown speed in four of
his five starts. He led all the way to trounce the Florida Derby (G1) by 13 1/2
lengths, and in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) he pressed the pace
before drawing off to win by 6 1/4 lengths. He also wired his debut by 11 1/4
lengths.
-
Dornoch has
set the pace in all three of his victories, including triumphs in the Remsen
(G2) and Fountain of Youth (G2). A switch to rating tactics for the Blue Grass
(G1) saw Dornoch struggle home in fourth place, so don't be surprised if he
reverts to his pacesetting style in the Kentucky Derby.
-
Track Phantom is
pure speed: he's set the pace or dueled for the lead in all seven of his
starts. Expect the gate-to-wire Lecomte (G3) winner to be a forward presence
under the Twin Spires.
-
Encino is
versatile; he's run well setting the pace, rallying from midfield, and closing
from far behind. But two of his three victories have been achieved in
gate-to-wire fashion, including a career-best triumph in the Lexington (G3)
last time out, so Encino has to be viewed as another potential pace player.
-
From Japan comes the
speed of T O Password, who raced in
second place during the early stages of his debut before taking over to win the
1,800-meter (about 1 1/8-mile) contest by two lengths. He then led all the way
to win the 1,800-meter Fukuryu S. on the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby.
That's five horses who have
done their best work on the lead, and they're not the only potential speed
horses in the Derby field. Stronghold closed
from 2 1/2 lengths back to win the Santa Anita Derby (G1), but had previously
employed pace-pressing tactics to win the Sunland Derby (G3). Resilience was never farther back than
third place when winning the Wood Memorial (G2). Just a Touch has raced second or third during the early stages of
all three of his starts, including when second in the Blue Grass (G1). Iroquois
(G3) winner West Saratoga is a bit
more tractable, but did wire a one-mile maiden special weight at Ellis Park
last summer. Just Steel is usually
within shouting range early and was never more than two lengths off the pace
when finishing second in the Arkansas Derby (G1). Catalytic raced in second place at every call of the Florida Derby.
Epic Ride dueled for the lead on his
way to a four-length victory in the Leonatus S., which came one start after he
led all the way to break his maiden sprinting six furlongs.
Horses in this second group
are unlikely to set the Kentucky Derby pace, but they could apply pressure
during the middle stages of the race, heating up the six-furlong and one-mile
fractions. And if this pressure comes on the heels of fast quarter-mile and
half-mile fractions set by some combination of Fierceness, Dornoch, Track
Phantom, Encino, and T O Password... the pace could become destructive.
This could impact the
chances of Fierceness, depending on where he draws in the starting gate.
Fierceness has been absolutely brilliant when allowed to work out a comfortable
trip setting or pressing the pace; he had a particularly easy time of things in
the Florida Derby, securing an uncontested lead through modest fractions of
:24.06, :47.50, and 1:11.31 before finishing powerfully.
But Fierceness has struggled
when things haven't gone his way. He got off to a poor start in the Champagne
(G1) and raced in sixth position early; after advancing to third place around
the turn, he gave way down the homestretch to finish seventh by 20 1/4 lengths.
And in the Holy Bull (G3), he got bounced around at the start and wound up racing
in third place behind a very slow pace. He never seemed fully comfortable with
his position, and even though he rallied to lead around the far turn he
flattened out in the drive to finish third by 3 1/2 lengths.
I hope to see Fierceness
draw an outside post in the Kentucky Derby, giving him options to stay out of
trouble and find his rhythm. He may be talented enough to withstand a hot pace
so long as he's comfortable with his position, but if he has any trouble at the
start from an inside post, I'm concerned he'll get buried in traffic and fail
to bring his A-game.
Setting the Fierceness
question aside, a hot pace in the Kentucky Derby will surely benefit deep
closers Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom, the possible second
and third choices in the betting. Sierra Leone is a nose away from being
undefeated in four starts, and this year he's produced powerful finishes to win
the Risen Star (G2) and Blue Grass (G1) against strong competition.
Catching Freedom finished
third by 1 3/4 lengths in the Risen Star, but didn't get the cleanest run down
the homestretch. He sandwiched that defeat between stretch-running scores in
the Smarty Jones S. and Louisiana Derby (G2), so he's consistently shown a high
level of talent and should have every chance to factor at Churchill Downs.
Honor Marie is
another who could benefit from a fast pace. The deep-closing Louisiana Derby
runner-up won the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs last fall and
has never been closer than eighth place during the early stages of a race, so
he's the type who could pick up the pieces from far behind to crash the
Kentucky Derby superfecta.
Now it's your turn! How do
you envision the Kentucky Derby pace unfolding?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
