By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
I may regret making this
declaration, but I feel like Saturday's 150th running of the Kentucky Derby
(G1) at Churchill Downs is shaping up as one of the most straightforward Derbys
to handicap in recent years.
There's a lot of quality in
the overflow field, even after Lexington (G3) winner Encino scratched with a
minor injury. But the three favorites look formidable, and overall I think
we'll see fairly chalky outcomes in the trifecta and superfecta.
With this disclaimer, here
are my selections for Kentucky Derby 150:
WIN CONTENDERS
#17 Fierceness (5-2)
There's no doubt about it:
on his best day, Fierceness is the fastest horse in the Kentucky Derby field.
In three of his five starts, he's been utterly spectacular, winning by daylight
margins. In the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) last fall, he pressed a good pace
before drawing off to dominate by 6 1/4 lengths over Grade 1 winners Muth,
Locked, and Timberlake. And in the Florida Derby (G1) five weeks ago, he led
all the way before finishing fast (final three furlongs in :36.91) to dominate
by 13 1/2 lengths.
Those victories yielded
Beyer Speed Figures of 105 and 110 and Brisnet Speed ratings of 112 and 106.
None of the other Kentucky Derby entrants have posted a Beyer higher than 101
nor a Brisnet higher than 104, so the fact Fierceness owns the two highest
numbers on both scales is significant.
Now, there are potential
chinks in Fierceness's armor. He's run poorly twice when faced with less-than-perfect
trips, finishing seventh in the Champagne (G1) and third in the Holy Bull (G3).
And he escaped with an uncontested lead in the Florida Derby, and that's
unlikely to happen again in the Kentucky Derby, not with speedy rivals like #1
Dornoch (20-1) and #12 Track Phantom (20-1) drawn to his inside.
But Fierceness has trained
up a storm in preparation for the Kentucky Derby, and drawing wide affords him
an opportunity to settle into a good rhythm regardless of whether the early
pace is fast, modest, or slow. I think that, at the very least, Fierceness has
a 1-in-3 chance of winning the Kentucky Derby, so I see value in his 5-2
morning line odds.
#2 Sierra Leone (3-1)
In the event that Fierceness
falters, Sierra Leone is a logical choice to pick up the pieces. A powerful
stretch runner, Sierra Leone suffered his lone defeat from four starts when
beaten a nose in the Remsen (G2) last fall, a race in which he closed a ton of
ground over a strongly speed-favoring track.
In 2024, Sierra Leone is
2-for-2. He started the year with a rallying triumph in the Risen Star (G2), in
which he overcame a slow pace to defeat a stellar field including Lecomte (G3)
winner Track Phantom, future Louisiana Derby (G2) 1-2 finishers Catching
Freedom and Honor Marie, and subsequent Wood Memorial (G2) hero Resilience.
Sierra Leone was even more
visually impressive in the Blue Grass (G1), surging down the homestretch to
defeat Gotham (G3) runner-up Just a Touch by 1 1/2 lengths. A fast early/slow
late race shape aided Sierra Leone in the Blue Grass, but he has upside for
improvement while making his third start of the season in the Kentucky Derby.
Sierra Leone is trained by Chad Brown, who has used the two-prep approach to
secure excellent Derby performances from Good Magic (second in 2018), Zandon
(third in 2022), Normandy Invasion (fourth in 2013), and Practical Joke (fifth
in 2017).
All four of those colts were
beaten in at least one of their two Derby preps, and they improved from their
first prep to their second prep and again in the Kentucky Derby. The fact
Sierra Leone has gone 2-for-2 this year, while still improving from the Risen
Star to the Blue Grass, suggests he's sitting on a career-best performance at
Churchill Downs.
#4 Catching Freedom (8-1)
Catching Freedom has made
steady progress on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. He didn't run especially
fast when charging from off the pace to win the Smarty Jones S. by 2 1/2
lengths, but he counted future Arkansas Derby (G1) runner-up Just Steel among
his beaten rivals. He ran faster on the Beyer and Brisnet scales when finishing
third to Sierra Leone in the Risen Star, even though he didn't get the cleanest
run down the homestretch.
Catching Freedom improved
again in the Louisiana Derby (G2), launching a powerful last-to-first rally to
win by one length over Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) winner Honor Marie. The pace
of the Louisiana Derby was decent for its 1 3/16-mile distance, yet Catching
Freedom still managed to close his final three furlongs in approximately
:36.58, an excellent fraction.
I feel like Catching Freedom
is a horse who is peaking at the right time. He's never been one to throw down
overly fast workouts in the mornings, yet at Churchill Downs last Saturday he worked
five furlongs in :59 1/5, traveling in company with Encino. I can definitely
envision a scenario where Catching Freedom improves again and runs down
everyone to win the Kentucky Derby, and a top-three finish is absolutely within
reach.
EXOTICS CONTENDERS
#15 Domestic Product (30-1)
I'm not sure if Domestic
Product is fast enough to win a race like the Kentucky Derby. I'm not sure
because he hasn't had a chance to run fast for more than a few furlongs at a
time this year.
Domestic Product has been
compromised by slow paces twice this season. In the Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream
Park, he settled off the pace behind splits of :25.03, :50.53, and 1:14.25
before closing gamely to finish second, two lengths behind the pacesetting
winner and 1 1/2 lengths ahead of Fierceness.
Then in the Tampa Bay Derby
(G3), Domestic Product found himself rating behind some of the slowest
fractions I can recall seeing in a Kentucky Derby prep race on dirt: :25.25,
:51.14, and 1:16.21. Despite this dreadful setup, Domestic Product managed to
blaze his final three furlongs in an epic :35.01 to win by a neck.
The paces of the Holy Bull
and Tampa Bay Derby were terribly unconducive to producing fast final times
(and fast speed figures), so I'm certain Domestic Product is capable of running
faster if given more pace to work with. How much faster is unclear, and I'm
also uncertain he has the pedigree to truly shine racing 1 1/4 miles. But at
odds of 30-1, with a couple of fast-finishing efforts under his belt, I have to
include Domestic Product in any trifecta and superfecta tickets.
#7 Honor Marie (20-1)
Since I like Catching
Freedom, I pretty much have to like Honor Marie, the stretch-running two-length
winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs last fall. Honor
Marie was beaten only one length by Catching Freedom in the Louisiana Derby (G2)
despite racing at least a little wide around both turns. Even in defeat, he ran
his final three furlongs in approximately :37.01, a rock-solid time.
With only two starts under
his belt this year, Honor Marie has upside for improvement in the Kentucky
Derby, especially after breezing a bullet five furlongs in :59 1/5 at Churchill
Downs last Friday. He's another dangerous threat from off the pace.
#11 Forever Young (10-1)
One of only two undefeated
horses in the Kentucky Derby field is Forever Young, a talented Japanese raider
with a 5-for-5 record. As a juvenile in his home country, Forever Young won all
three of his starts, culminating with a seven-length drubbing of the important
Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun. Then he traveled to the Middle East for the Saudi
Derby (G3) and UAE Derby (G2), winning both with eye-catching performances.
Forever Young probably
wasn't cranked for a peak effort racing 1,600 meters (about one mile) in the
Saudi Derby, but he nevertheless launched a relentless rally to get up and beat
three-time U.S. stakes winner Book'em Danno by a head. Then in the 1,900-meter
(about 1 3/16-mile) UAE Derby, Forever Young was a bit more tactical and
gradually took over to win by two lengths.
Forever Young isn't the
quickest horse out of the starting gate, and that could cause him to fall
farther off the Kentucky Derby pace than ideal. But if Dornoch, Track Phantom,
and/or Fierceness ensure a hot pace up front, that could be to Forever Young's
benefit, allowing him to come running down the homestretch and secure a spot in
the superfecta. Or maybe even keep his unbeaten record intact.
#8 Just a Touch (10-1)
You have to admire the
performance lightly raced Just a Touch delivered in the Blue Grass (G1). After
tracking a quick pace from second place, he took over the lead in the
homestretch, only to get run down late by the giant stretch rally of Sierra
Leone.
Now, Just a Touch was tiring
meaningfully down the Blue Grass homestretch (running his final three furlongs
in :39.31), and he also grew a little leg-weary when finishing second in the one-mile
Gotham (G3) two starts back. Even though he's a son of Triple Crown winner
Justify out of a mare by Tapit (the sire of four 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes
winners), I wonder if—at least for now—Just a Touch might be better running
shorter distances than 1 1/4 miles.
On the other hand, there's
no shame in losing to a horse like Sierra Leone, especially after being
involved in a quick pace. Just a Touch pulled 3 3/4 lengths clear of the Blue
Grass third-place finisher while earning solid speed figures of 96 (Beyer) and
100 (Brisnet), so he's a talented colt with a shot to finish in the top four on
the first Saturday in May.
#14 Endlessly (30-1)
Much has been made of the
fact Endlessly has never raced on dirt, and even trainer Michael McCarthy has
noted the colt might not relish switching surfaces for the Kentucky Derby. But
it's hard to knock how Endlessly has won five of his six starts, including four
stakes, with impressive rallies. In the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) on Tapeta, which
produced 2022 Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike and 2023 Derby runner-up Two
Phil's, Endlessly blazed his final three furlongs in :36.49 to swallow the
field and beat Iroquois (G3) winner West Saratoga by four lengths.
Here's what's interesting:
the Churchill Downs main track tends to play a bit more kindly toward turf and
synthetic horses than other dirt tracks. Most notably, Animal Kingdom won the
2011 Kentucky Derby in his dirt debut, and that was after he romped in the Jeff
Ruby (which was then known as the Spiral).
Endlessly worked a quick half-mile
in :47 4/5 at Churchill Downs last Friday and seems to be handling the
Louisville oval well enough in training. His pedigree offers some potential for
success on dirt (Oscar Performance has sired multiple graded winners on dirt
even though he himself was a turf horse), so I don't think Endlessly is an
impossible longshot in the Kentucky Derby.
SELECTIONS
Ultimately, I'm going to
keep things simple and side with the fastest horse. Consistency has been a
struggle for Fierceness, but I think he's sitting on a big race in the Kentucky
Derby, and I'm optimistic his draw in the outer 25% of the field will allow him
to work out an ideal trip under three-time Derby-winning jockey John Velazquez.
1st: Fierceness
2nd: Sierra Leone
3rd: Catching Freedom
4th: Domestic Product
Bonus Pick
On Friday at Churchill
Downs, the sensationally talented Louisiana-bred #2 Ova Charged (7-2) will tackle the graded stakes ranks in Race 6,
the Unbridled Sidney (G3) sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on turf. She's 12-for-15
lifetime and 3-for-3 on turf, most recently shredding the Page Cortez S. at
Fair Grounds by 12 1/2 lengths in the fast time of 1:01.90.
I believe Ova Charged may be
talented enough to factor in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (G1) at Del Mar this
fall. In the meantime, if her 7-2 morning line odds hold up (I have my doubts),
Ova Charged is my best bet of Kentucky Derby week.
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the 2024 Kentucky Derby?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
