By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
The weekend in between the
Kentucky Derby (G1) and the Preakness (G1) isn't the busiest one on the U.S. racing
calendar, but a solid Saturday of graded stakes action at Aqueduct (racing
under the "Belmont at the Big A" branding) includes the $400,000 Man o' War
(G2) for older horses racing 1 3/8 miles on turf.
A Grade 1 event for decades,
the Man o' War has been downgraded to Grade 2 for its 2024 renewal, but a
capable field has nevertheless turned out. Leading the nine-horse charge is #9 Nations Pride (8-5), a multiple
Grade 1 winner who looks mighty tough to beat in his 2024 debut.
Nations Pride is the class
of the Man o' War field, and he's been demonstrating his talent since the
summer of 2022, when he closed a lot of ground to finish second in the 1
1/4-mile Belmont Derby (G1). That defeat by three-quarters of a length was
followed by a 1 3/4-length score in the 1 3/16-mile Saratoga Derby (G1) over future
Saranac (G3) and Coolmore Turf Mile (G1) winner Annapolis, after which Nations
Pride trounced the 1 1/2-mile Jockey Club Derby (G3) by 6 1/4 lengths and
finished a respectable fifth against older rivals in the Breeders' Cup Turf
(G1).
Nations Pride was every bit
as productive in 2023, winning a trio of graded and group stakes from five
starts. In Dubai, he took the 1 1/4-mile Dubai Millenium (G3) and finished third
by three-quarters of a length in the 1 1/8-mile Dubai Turf (G1). In Germany
four months later, he trounced the 1 1/4-mile Grosser Dallmayr-Preis -
Bayerisches Zuchtrennen (G1) by three lengths over Group 1 Deutches Derby
winner Fantastic Moon. Then he returned to North America for the 1 1/4-mile
Canadian International (G1), which he won by 2 1/4 lengths with a career-best
108 Brisnet Speed rating. His only misfire came when ending 2024 with a
seventh-place finish (beaten four lengths) in the Bahrain International Trophy
(G2).
The number of countries, courses,
and distances Nations Pride has handled is rather extraordinary. He's won in
the United Kingdom, Dubai, the United States, Germany, and Canada. He's won
over two different synthetic tracks and six different turf courses rated good,
firm, soft, and yielding. As far as distances go, he's won six times over 1 1/4
miles, but has also won running as short as one mile and as far as 1 1/2 miles.
It seems there isn't anything Nations Pride can't do.
Some bettors might feel
inclined to oppose Nations Pride in his 2024 debut, but he won his seasonal
opener in both 2022 and 2023, so the layoff shouldn't be a concern. He hails
from the barn of Charlie Appleby, whose terrific 32-for-87 (37%) record in
North America includes a 3-for-8 (38%) tally in recent years with horses
returning from layoffs of 90 days or more. Just last month, Appleby sent out
2023 Breeders' Cup Mile (G1) winner Master of The Seas to win the Maker's Mark
Mile (G1) at Keeneland in his 2024 bow.
Throw in the fact Nations
Pride will be guided in the Man o' War by renowned jockey Frankie Dettori, and
it's hard to make a case against him. In fact, his 8-5 morning line odds will
be quite enticing if they hold up, because I believe there's better than a 50%
chance of Nations Pride winning the Man o' War and anything higher than
even-money is value from that perspective.
Now, who will round out the
minor awards? I'm inclined to favor the second Appleby entrant, #8 Silver Knott (3-1), runner-up by a
nose in the 2022 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1). Silver Knott competed five
times in North America last year, and while he failed to win he cracked the
trifecta on four occasions in the 1 1/8-mile Hollywood Derby (G1), 1 1/8-mile
Twilight Derby (G2), 1 1/8-mile Pennine Ridge (G2), and one-mile Secretariat
(G2).
It's possible Silver Knott was
crying out for longer distances, because when he stepped up to 1 1/2 miles for
the Elkhorn (G2) at Keeneland last month, he shrugged off a 4 1/2-month layoff
to track a slow pace and prevail by 1 1/2 lengths. The runner-up, Missed the
Cut, had previously won the San Marcos (G3) and San Luis Rey (G3) in
succession.
#2 Kertez (5-1),
a former French campaigner who won Gulfstream Park's 1 1/2-mile Pan American
(G2) in his U.S. debut for trainer Christophe Clement, is my third choice. It's
a chalky set of selections, but they have the potential to yield a decent
return on investment if we play only one or two exacta and trifecta
combinations:
Selections
1st: Nations Pride
2nd: Silver Knott
3rd: Kertez
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Man o' War?
*****
Want to test your handicapping skills against fellow Unlocking Winners readers? Check out the Unlocking Winners contest page—there's a new challenge every week! (Please note: older contest entries can be found here.)
*****
The Unlocking Winners Road to the Kentucky Derby Handicapping Challenge is back! Check out the special contest page to play along.
J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
