By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
Two weeks after the 150th
Kentucky Derby (G1) ended in an exciting three-horse photo finish, the Triple
Crown stage shifts to Pimlico for the 149th Preakness (G1).
Unlike the Derby, which
featured a full field of 20 starters, the Preakness is expected to go off with
a field of eight. Nine horse entered, but morning line favorite #4 Muth (8-5) has scratched due to a
fever.
The scratch of Muth takes a
major win threat out of the field and changes the complexion of the 1 3/16-mile
race. Muth is a speed horse who might well have set the pace. Now that he's out
of the mix, the pace figures to be modest—maybe even slow—which could
compromise a number of contenders. Potentially including #5 Mystik Dan (5-2), the Kentucky Derby winner.
Mystik Dan isn't completely
lacking in early speed. To the contrary, he set or pressed the pace in three of
his first four starts. But he's improved a lot since switching to rallying
tactics. He rated midfield while saving ground over a golden rail in the
Southwest (G3) before shooting through inside to dominate by eight lengths. Then
he worked out another perfect inside trip to close from eighth position and win
the Kentucky Derby by a nose in a three-way photo finish.
Mystik Dan shouldn't have any
difficulty securing the rail in the Preakness, not with three stretch runners
drawn to his inside. But if he heads for the rail, he may find himself boxed in
behind a slow pace with nowhere to run. Even if he finds a seam turning for
home, as he did in the Southwest and Kentucky Derby, it could be tricky to run
down leaders who are still fresh from setting or pressing a slow pace.
Louisiana Derby (G2) winner #3 Catching Freedom (6-1), who closed
from 15th place to finish fourth in the Kentucky Derby, may find himself in the
same problematic boat from a pace perspective. Longshot #1 Mugatu (20-1) and #2
Uncle Heavy (20-1) are unlikely to find the pace appealing either.
That's why I'm going to back
a horse with tactical speed, who can stay close to the slow pace and benefit. I
thought about picking San Felipe (G2) winner and Santa Anita Derby (G1)
runner-up #9 Imagination (6-1),
whose trainer—Bob Baffert—has won the Preakness a record eight times. To me,
Imagination is shaping up as the most likely Preakness pacesetter, and I do
believe he'll prove tough to run down in the homestretch.
But instead, I'm going to
side with #8 Tuscan Gold (8-1), the
most lightly raced horse in the field with only three starts under his belt.
While not an obvious speed horse at first glance, Tuscan Gold should be
tactical enough to work out a favorable trip in the Preakness, and I anticipate
he'll deliver a career-best performance in his toughest test to date.
Tuscan Gold debuted in a
one-mile maiden special weight at Aqueduct last fall and endured a bumping
start that left him in last place early on. Despite this disadvantage, Tuscan
Gold made a nice mid-race move before flattening out to finish fourth, beaten 3
1/4 lengths by future Blue Grass (G1) winner and Kentucky Derby runner-up
Sierra Leone.
Nearly three months later,
Tuscan Gold made his two-turn debut in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at
Gulfstream Park, in which he rallied from four lengths behind the early tempo
to dominate by 6 1/4 lengths. Off this flashy victory, Tuscan Gold stepped up
sharply in class for the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds, a
Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier that drew a deep field.
In the Louisiana Derby,
Tuscan Gold showed improved tactical speed. He was never more than 2 1/4
lengths off the pace and raced in third place for much of the journey. He
stayed right in the thick of things down the homestretch and ultimately
finished third by 1 3/4 lengths against Catching Freedom and Kentucky Jockey
Club (G2) winner Honor Marie. Coming home behind Tuscan Gold were several
talented runners, including Lecomte (G3) winner Track Phantom and next-out
Peter Pan (G3) hero Antiquarian.
I love the fact that Tuscan
Gold placed in a major Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier before skipping the
Kentucky Derby and targeting the Preakness. Trainer Chad Brown has previously
employed this approach with Preakness winners Cloud Computing (2017) and Early
Voting (2022), as well as with Blazing Sevens, who was beaten a head when
second in the 2023 Preakness. All three of those colts improved significantly
in the Preakness, and all three offered enticing odds in the betting—Cloud
Computing was 11-1, Early Voting started at 5-1, and Blazing Sevens went off at
9-2.
Tuscan Gold has improved his
Beyer Speed Figure significantly with each start, climbing from 65 to 84 to 95.
One more step forward can put him in the hunt for victory under jockey Tyler
Gaffalione, who won the 2019 Preakness aboard War of Will. I envision Tuscan
Gold racing in third or fourth place early on, within a couple lengths of the
early lead while staying clear of traffic on the outside. From there, he can
launch a winning rally at compelling odds.
This brings me to one other
horse who may benefit from a mild pace: #7
Just Steel (15-1), who faded to finish 17th in the Kentucky Derby after
dueling for the lead through quick fractions of :22.97 and :46.63.
If you look at the chart of
the Kentucky Derby, you'll see a race that experienced a pace meltdown. The
three early pacesetters, including 3-1 favorite Fierceness, faded to finish
11th, 15th, and 17th. Mystik Dan, eighth in the early going, was the only horse
in the front half of the field to record a top-five finish. The next four
horses across the finish line closed from 18th, 16th, 15th, and 17th at the
first call.
Prior to the Kentucky Derby,
Just Steel rated within two lengths of the early lead in the Arkansas Derby
(G1) before staying on to finish second behind Muth. Coming home 4 1/4 lengths
behind Just Steel in third place was Mystik Dan, who endured a wide trip that
day and failed to fire his best shot.
Just Steel and Mystik Dan
have actually met four times. In the Southwest, Just Steel raced wide against
the grain of the inside-favoring track and finished second to Mystik Dan. But
when Mystik Dan employed pace-pressing tactics in the Smarty Jones S., he faded
to finish fifth, three-quarters of a length behind runner-up Just Steel.
In other words, Just Steel
has beaten Mystik Dan in two of their four meetings. If Just Steel stalks a
modest pace in the Preakness, I can envision a scenario where he kicks on down
the homestretch and outruns expectations at double-digit odds, finishing close
to or even ahead of Mystik Dan depending on what kind of trip the Kentucky
Derby winner works out.
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in Preakness 149?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
