By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
The lone graded stakes
taking place in the United States this Saturday is the $200,000 Pennine Ridge
(G2) at Aqueduct ("Belmont at the Big A").
Most of the graded stakes
action across the country is being saved for Memorial Day, but we'll give the 1
1/8-mile Pennine Ridge our attention because of its intriguing field and status
as an important steppingstone toward the July 6 Belmont Derby (G1) at Aqueduct.
Since the Pennine Ridge was inaugurated in 2014, Mr Speaker (2014), Oscar
Performance (2017), Catholic Boy (2018), Henley's Joy (2019) and Far Bridge
(2023) have all used the race as a springboard to Belmont Derby glory.
Seven horses have entered
the 2024 Pennine Ridge. There are a few promising up-and-comers in the entries,
but Godolphin colorbearer #2 Legend of
Time (2-1)—the most accomplished horse in the field—is my top pick even
though he exits a defeat at short odds.
Under the care of Charlie
Appleby, who wins at a 37% rate with his North American starters, Legend of
Time started his career on a promising note abroad. Competing in the United
Kingdom and Dubai, he won four of his five starts over distances from 1,400
meters (about seven furlongs) to 1,800 meters (about 1 1/8 miles). Legend of Time's
victory over the latter distance came in the Jumeirah Classic at Meydan, a
stakes in which he saved ground behind the pacesetter before splitting horses
to dominate by 4 3/4 lengths.
Legend of Time made his U.S.
debut in the American Turf (G2) at Churchill Downs three weeks ago. He started
as the 5-4 favorite, but appeared unsettled while pressing the pace outside in
second place. When called upon for his best run in the homestretch, Legend of
Time failed to respond and weakened in the final furlong to finish fifth by
five lengths.
I'm optimistic Legend of
Time will fare much better in the Pennine Ridge. He's based in the U.S. now, so
he's had more time to acclimate to the conditions here. He even worked an easy
five furlongs at Saratoga last Saturday. And he's picking up jockey Joel
Rosario, who has won the Pennine Ridge twice aboard Decorated Invader (2020)
and Sainthood (2021).
The one difficulty I see in
Legend of Time's path to victory is the lack of early speed in the Pennine
Ridge field. There isn't a single proven pacesetter in the field, which is
unfortunate since an honest pace would give Legend of Time every chance to tuck
in behind the leader and pounce to victory down the homestretch, like he did in
the Jumeirah Classic.
But maybe the lack of pace
will prove to be a blessing in disguise. On paper, Legend of Time appears to
have more early speed than anyone else, so there's a chance he'll shake loose
on an utterly uncontested lead. If he can settle on the front end through slow
fractions, he may prove impossible to catch.
Or, perhaps we'll see the
reasonably tactical #1 White Palomino (6-1) assume the early lead from the rail
draw, allowing Legend of Time to slot in behind him from post 2. If such a trip
allows Legend of Time to settle, then giving up an easy lead to White Palomino
might be worthwhile, as I'm willing to bet a comfortable Legend of Time will
have enough in reserve to outkick White Palomino in a flying finish.
In any case, my money will
be riding on Legend of Time to bounce back and deliver victory in the Pennine
Ridge. It's not the most creative opinion, but I'm hoping his defeat at short
odds in the American Turf will prompt caution from some bettors, allowing
Legend of Time to start to playable odds. I think he has around a 40-45% chance
of winning the Pennine Ride, so his 2-1 morning line odds are appealing.
For second place, I'm keen
to support the above-mentioned White Palomino. Sure, he finished third behind #7 Triple Espresso (4-1) in his debut racing 1 1/16 miles over
the Gulfstream Park turf course. But Triple Espressor has proven to be a decent
stakes horse, finishing only a head behind future Preakness (G1) winner Seize
the Grey when fourth in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), and White Palomino's second
start yielded a sharp maiden victory racing 1 3/16 miles at Keeneland.
In that win, White Palomino
was never more than two lengths behind a decent tempo before finishing up nicely
to score by two lengths. The son of Kitten's Joy is progressing in the right
direction and should have enough tactical speed to work out a favorable trip
under jockey Flavien Prat, a 36% winner at Aqueduct since May 2.
Triple Espresso also has a strong
shot to finish in the top three. His Jeff Ruby effort wasn't bad, and before
that he finished a pace-compromised by fourth (beaten only three lengths) in a
remarkably slow early/fast late edition of the one-mile Colonel Liam S. The
main downside to Triple Espresso is his lack of tactical speed; he's closed
from far back in five of his six starts, and that could be problematic given
the lack of pace entered in the Pennine Ridge. But talent alone can land him a
spot in the trifecta.
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Pennine Ridge?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
