By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
Two of the most talented
sprinters in the country are slated to compete in separate races this Saturday.
Ironically, neither of the races are graded stakes, so if you're looking for
short-priced singles to build multi-race bets around, these speedy sprinters
are excellent candidates.
The first is #3 Skelly (4-5), who looks downright
formidable in the $275,000 Aristides S. sprinting
six furlongs at Churchill Downs. Conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Steve
Asmussen, Skelly has won each of his last nine U.S. starts in gate-to-wire
fashion by margins from 1 1/4 lengths to 4 3/4 lengths. His win streak was
interrupted only by a runner-up finish in the Feb. 24 Riyadh Dirt Sprint (G3)
in Saudi Arabia.
Skelly has stayed busy since
the Riyadh Dirt Sprint. He seems to thrive on frequent racing, and his last two
starts have been impressive. In the April 13 Count Fleet Sprint H. (G3) at
Oaklawn Park, he set blazing fractions of :21.52 and :43.88 before cruising
home on top by three lengths, a performance that earned him the Equibase chart
comment "blistered opposition."
Skelly was arguably even
more remarkable in the May 4 Lake Hamilton S. at Oaklawn. Despite breaking
slowly, he recovered to claim the lead through a sensational :21.34 opening
quarter-mile. He widened his advantage to three lengths through half a mile in
:44.33, then held off a late runner to score by 2 1/4 lengths.
None of the other Aristides
entrants have shown the same pacesetting speed as Skelly. Assuming Skelly brings
his best effort while shipping from Oaklawn to Churchill, potential pace rivals
like Churchill Downs (G1) runner-up #8
Here Mi Song (6-1) and recent $100,000 allowance optional claiming winner #4 Angkor (4-1) are likely to be
compromised.
Therefore, I envision Skelly
leading all the way to win the Aristides over #1 Tejano Twist (5-1), a Grade 1-placed stretch runner who has met
Skelly on several occasions in the past. He closed from more than a dozen
lengths behind to finish second in the Count Fleet Sprint H., and if Skelly
burns out the other speed horses at Churchill Downs, Tejano Twist can once
again rally to complete the exacta.
The other sprinter I want to
highlight this week is #6 Ova Charged (1-1),
a talented Louisiana-bred who figures to start as an overwhelming favorite in
the 5 1/2-furlong $100,000 Louisiana
Legends Mademoiselle S. against fellow Louisiana-breds at Evangeline Downs.
Ova Charged has enjoyed her
strongest success on grass, a surface over which she's undefeated in four
starts. Against non-state-restricted competition this year, she's won the 5
1/2-furlong Mardi Gras S. at Fair Grounds by 5 1/4 lengths and the 5
1/2-furlong Unbridled Sidney (G3) at Churchill Downs by a neck.
The Louisiana Legends
Mademoiselle is taking place on dirt, but that shouldn't bother Ova Charged.
She's not undefeated on dirt, but her 9-for-12 tally over the surface is packed
with stakes wins against Louisiana-bred competition, including a 6 3/4-length
drubbing of the Jan. 6 Bob F. Wright Memorial S. dashing six furlongs at Fair
Grounds. Plus, as a three-year-old in 2021, Ova Charged finished second in the
6 1/2-furlong Victory Ride (G3) at Belmont Park, beaten only by next-out Test
(G1) runner-up Souper Sensational.
Ova Charged has already conquered
many of the rivals she'll face in the Mademoiselle, so she'll be difficult or
impossible to defeat while returning to the Louisiana-bred ranks. Who has the
speed to oppose her? Likely no one. Look at the Brisnet E1 and E2 Pace ratings
Ova Charged has produced in her last three starts: 104 and 113, 104 and 114,
and 105 and 110. None of her rivals at Evangeline Downs can boast numbers like
those. The only one who has posted numbers anywhere near as fast in recent
starts is #5 Charlie T (7-2), and
she faded to finish 20 1/2 lengths behind Ova Charged after chasing the
latter's pace in the 5 1/2-furlong Page Cortez S. at Fair Grounds in March.
If you asked me to identify
the most likely runner-up, I might point you toward stretch-running #3 Blessed Assurance (15-1), whose
4-for-7 record over the Evangeline Downs dirt includes a third-place finish
(beaten 1 1/2 lengths) in the 5 1/2-furlong Creole Lady S. last time out. If
Ova Charged carves out a hot pace, Blessed Assurance should have every chance
to pick up the pieces and record a top-two finish.
But mostly, I would focus on
singling Ova Charged in multi-race wagers. The Mademoiselle is the first of six
consecutive stakes on Evangeline's Saturday card, and it's going to be a
delightful day of Louisiana-bred racing action.
Hopefully, by the time
evening falls on Saturday, Skelly and Ova Charged will have delivered resounding
victories. Skelly is already shaping up as a formidable Breeders' Cup Sprint
(G1) contender, and the multi-surface versatility of Ova Charged could make her
a danger in either the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (G1) or the Breeders' Cup
Filly & Mare Sprint (G1).
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Aristides and Mademoiselle?
*****
Want to test your handicapping skills against fellow Unlocking Winners readers? Check out the Unlocking Winners contest page—there's a new challenge every week! (Please note: older contest entries can be found here.)
J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
