By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
The 2024 Triple Crown reaches
its pinnacle this Saturday with the 156th running of the $2 million Belmont Stakes
(G1).
Due to renovations taking
place at Belmont Park, this year's Belmont has been moved to Saratoga and
shortened from 1 1/2 miles to 1 1/4 miles. The result is a field of impressive
quality: seven graded stakes winners, including the Kentucky Derby (G1) and
Preakness (G1) champs, plus a couple of colts who have placed in multiple
graded stakes and an undefeated up-and-comer.
I've been pondering the
Belmont field for days, even before final entries were released, and have gone
back and forth on my top choice. At one time or another I've seriously
considered picking five different horses. I gave a long look to Wood Memorial
(G2) winner #2 Resilience (10-1),
who made a strong mid-race move in the Kentucky Derby before finishing sixth,
and also to Remsen (G2) and Fountain of Youth (G2) hero #6 Dornoch (15-1), who ran into plenty of trouble when breaking
from the rail in the Kentucky Derby and finishing tenth.
But ultimately, I considered
the fact neither Resilience nor Dornoch have posted a Beyer Speed Figure higher
than 91 and decided to look elsewhere for the winner. I think both colts have
strong chances to finish in the top four this Saturday, but claiming top honors
against a field of this caliber will likely require a large step forward from a
Beyer standpoint.
I thought about keeping
things simple with #9 Sierra Leone (9-5),
the morning line favorite after winning the Risen Star (G2) and Blue Grass (G1)
and finishing second by a nose in the Kentucky Derby. Sierra Leone is actually
two noses away from being undefeated, but I see a couple of possible chinks in
his armor. For starters, he's a deep closer who risks falling too far behind a
modest Belmont pace. He got a great setup in the Kentucky Derby, which was
dominated by horses rallying from off the pace, and I actually wonder if 1 1/4
miles is a hair longer than Sierra Leone wants to run. He has a habit of
lugging in down the homestretch, and long distances may be exacerbating that tendency.
As of yesterday, I had
penciled in #1 Seize the Grey (8-1)
as my Belmont choice. The stoutly bred son of Arrogate has improved by leaps and
bounds in recent starts for Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas, a four-time
winner of the Belmont. After closing from no more than two lengths off the lead
to win a fast-paced edition of the Pat Day Mile (G2) over a strong field, Seize
the Grey led all the way through honest fractions to win the Preakness by 2 1/4
lengths over Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan, earning a 100 Beyer Speed
Figure. I'm inclined to believe Seize the Grey can repeat that performance in
the Belmont, especially if he makes the lead again while breaking from the
rail.
But for better or worse, I've
settled on #10 Mindframe (7-2) as my
Belmont choice, even while acknowledging he has challenges to overcome. For
example, he's never run in a graded stakes, and the last horse to win the
Belmont in his graded stakes debut was Sarava in 2002.
However, Mindframe is the
fastest Belmont entrant in terms of both Beyer Speed Figures and Brisnet Speed
ratings, so those are big positives. Trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Belmont
four times since 2007, and Mindframe may have enough raw talent to give
Pletcher a fifth Belmont triumph.
I liked Mindframe's victory
in a 1 1/16-mile $100,000 allowance optional claimer on Kentucky Derby Day at
Churchill Downs. There wasn't much speed in the field, so Mindframe made the front
through easy fractions of :24.65, :49.18, and 1:13.17 before accelerating
strongly (final five-sixteenths of a mile in :30.00) to dominate by 7 1/2
lengths under a hand ride. His fourth quarter-mile fraction was especially strong
at :23.57.
Some bettors might be
skeptical of Mindframe's performance because he escaped with such an easy lead,
but there are two reasons why I'm not especially concerned about this. First, I
don't anticipate the Belmont pace being blazing; I think Seize the Grey will
make the front from the rail with Dornoch up close, but not applying pressure,
and that could lead to a leisurely tempo.
Secondly, Mindframe isn't a
need-the-lead type, and he actually produced his strongest effort when settling
2-3 lengths off a blazing pace in a sprint. Indeed, when Mindframe debuted in a
seven-furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park, he rated in fourth
position behind fractions of :21.92 and :44.44 before taking over to obliterate
a next-out winner by 13 3/4 lengths. That runaway victory yielded a 103 Beyer
Speed Figure and a 106 Brisnet Speed rating, higher than the 97s Mindframe
earned for his allowance win.
I like the outside draw for
Mindframe in the Belmont, as it affords him the opportunity to work out a clean
tracking trip outside and perhaps just behind Seize the Grey and Dornoch. From
there, he'll have every chance to shine under five-time Eclipse Award-winning
jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., a two-time Belmont winner aboard Creator (2016) and Mo
Donegal (2022).
For the minor awards, #3 Mystik Dan (5-1) and #5 Antiquarian (12-1) are other logical
contenders. Mystik Dan was game as could be when employing ground-saving
tactics to win the Kentucky Derby by a nose over Sierra Leone, and he also ran well
when finishing second in the Preakness, but he's had a busy campaign and I do
wonder if 1 1/4 miles might be a little longer than his best distance.
As for Antiquarian, he's
improving for Todd Pletcher and battled to a gritty victory in the Peter Pan
(G3) last time out, but in terms of Beyer Speed Figures and Brisnet Speed
ratings he's still a notch or two below the Belmont favorites, and he'll likely
need a step forward to conquer Saturday's formidable field.
Selections
1st: Mindframe
2nd: Seize the Grey
3rd: Sierra Leone
4th: Resilience
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Belmont Stakes?
Lock of the Week
As I sit writing this column
on Wednesday, I feel like I should briefly mention the Rehoboth S. taking place
at Delaware Park this afternoon. #10
Alva Starr (3-5), winner of the Madison (G1) and runner-up in the Derby
City Distaff (G1) in her last two starts, looks like an absolute lock to win
the six-furlong sprint.
Originally, nine fillies and
mares were set to face Alva Starr in the Rehoboth. But six of them scratched,
leaving only three to oppose the heavy favorite. None of them have ever earned
a Beyer Speed Figure higher than 77, whereas Alva Starr has posted numbers in
the 96-100 ranges in five of her last six starts.
There won't be much value in
betting Alva Starr to win (she'll surely start at odds of 1-20), but if you're
looking for a trustworthy single in multi-race wagers, Alva Starr looks
virtually certain to secure her third stakes win of 2024 in the Rehoboth. I can't
recommend the last time I saw a horse who looked this unbeatable on paper.
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
