By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
A deep field has turned out
for Saturday's $150,000 Pegasus S. at Monmouth Park.
The 1 1/16-mile contest for
three-year-olds isn't a graded stakes, but it might as well be. The 2024 field
is packed with Road to the Kentucky Derby alumni (including three graded stakes
winners), and one of the eight entrants ran in the Kentucky Derby (G1) itself.
That horse is #7 Domestic Product, the possible Pegasus
favorite. Although the Chad Brown trainee misfired in the Kentucky Derby,
finishing 13th, his previous three-year-old form was strong. Domestic Product rallied
into a slow pace to finish second by two lengths against pacesetter #5 Hades in the Holy Bull (G3), then
overcame incredibly slow fractions of :25.25, :51.14, and 1:16.21 to win the
Tampa Bay Derby (G3) by a neck.
You can make plenty of
excuses for Domestic Product's disappointment in the Kentucky Derby. Maybe the
step into Grade 1 company was too steep. Perhaps he failed to fire after a
troubled start left him farther off the pace than usual. Maybe he's more of a
miler at heart (as his pedigree hints might be the case) and the Derby's 1
1/4-mile distance proved too far. Whatever the reason(s), Domestic Product
figures to rebound while dropping in class and distance for the Pegasus.
But does that make Domestic
Product a guaranteed winner? Not necessarily. Recent years suggest Kentucky
Derby alumni are vulnerable when the tackle the Pegasus.
In 2023, Derby 14th-place
finisher Kingsbarns was beaten to second place as the 1-2 favorite in the
Pegasus. In 2019, disqualified Derby winner Maximum Security started as an
overwhelming 1-20 favorite in the Pegasus, but settled for second place. And
while Mandaloun (eventually a Kentucky Derby winner via disqualification) managed
to prevail as the 3-10 favorite in the 2021 Pegasus, he did so by only a neck while
Derby 14th-place finish Brooklyn Strong finished a distant fourth.
I do believe Domestic
Product will fire a competitive shot and finish in the Pegasus exacta. There's
a good chance he'll win, and I wouldn't leave him off any multi-race wagers.
But my top choice, hopefully at higher odds, is #1 Tuscan Sky.
Tuscan Sky has lots of
talent, but I'm not sure he enjoys racing in kickback behind rivals. When he
debuted in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Aqueduct in January, he
initially carved out the pace before getting passed and cleared by a rival to
his outside. Once Tuscan Sky got behind the leader, he dropped back as many as
3 1/2 lengths off the pace. But when he shifted outside for a clear path,
Tuscan Sky unleashed an explosive finish and romped home on top by 5 1/4
lengths.
Tuscan Sky subsequently tackled
a $100,000 allowance optional claimer racing 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds.
Facing only two rivals, he was able to track the pace in second place before
taking over to beat the multiple graded stakes-placed Nash by two lengths.
Then came the Wood Memorial
(G2), in which Tuscan Sky started as a popular choice at 2.95-1. Unfortunately,
he broke just a step slowly and got squeezed between rivals, dropping back to
ninth place as a result. Again, he didn't seem to relish kickback and dropped
several lengths behind the eighth-place horse. When Tuscan Sky got in the clear,
he mounted a decent rally around the far turn, and while I don't think he was
going to win, he got behind rivals again approaching the homestretch and then had
to steady when a rival fell. In other words, Tuscan Sky didn't have a fair
chance to sustain his rally, so I'll forgive the fact he finished seventh by 12
lengths.
Now, I'm not thrilled that
Tuscan Sky drew the rail in the Pegasus, because if he fails to make the lead
he's likely to wind up racing behind horses, and that could compromise his
chances. But the Pegasus field isn't overly stuffed with speed, so if Tuscan
Sky gets off to a clean start while equipped with blinkers for the first time,
I think there's a good chance he'll wind up in first or second position and
work out the trip he needs to win.
Adding to the appeal are
Tuscan Sky's speed figures. His two victories yielded back-to-back Brisnet
Speed ratings of 97 and improving Beyer Speed Figures of 89 and 95. Those
numbers look excellent against the Pegasus field, so I'm confident Tuscan Sky's
A-game is good enough to win this race. Throw in the fact trainer Todd Pletcher
has won the Pegasus five times (even defeating Maximum Security with King for a
Day), and I believe Tuscan Sky is a fair choice to spring a mild upset over Domestic
Product.
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Pegasus?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
