By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
I had initially planned to
handicap the $1 million Haskell (G1) at Monmouth Park for this week's edition
of Unlocking Winners. But with the field still in flux (key contenders Fierceness
and Dornoch are possible to scratch), it's difficult to make a selection this
far in advance.
Instead, we'll look at the
other big race of the weekend, the $500,000 Coaching Club American Oaks (G1),
as well as another rich Monmouth fixture, the $500,000 Molly Pitcher (G3).
Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) at Saratoga
Only five fillies will face
the starter in the historic Coaching Club American Oaks, and the heavy favorite
to win the 1 1/8-mile contest is #3
Thorpedo Anna (1-2). The speedy filly has dominated all three of her starts
this year by daylight margins, taking the Fantasy (G2) by four lengths, the
Kentucky Oaks (G1) by 4 3/4 lengths, and the Acorn (G1) by 5 1/2 lengths.
I was particularly impressed
with Thorpedo Anna's Acorn performance. She pressed champion two-year-old filly
Just F Y I through stiff splits of :23.53, :46.75, and 1:10.24, then took over
when Just F Y I faded to defeat a strong field, and she did all this despite
losing a shoe during the race.
Still, I do see one possible
chink in Thorpedo Anna's armor. Her greatest weapon is her high cruising speed-she's
able to set or press strong fractions and still kick on down the homestretch.
But Thorpedo Anna is the only obvious speed horse in the Coaching Club American
Oaks field, and I'm concerned that instead of dashing out to run her rivals off
their feet, she'll set a slow pace and make it easy for them to keep up.
A slow pace could play to
the strengths of #1 Candied (5-2),
who won the Alcibiades (G1) and finished third by less than one length in the
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) last year. Candied struggled in her
three-year-old debut, finishing fourth in the Ashland (G1) off a five-month
layoff. But she bounced back impressively in her second start of the season, trouncing
a capable group of older horses in the 1 1/16-mile Lady's Secret S. at Monmouth
Park.
In the Lady's Secret,
Candied faced only three rivals and at one point trailed slow splits of :24.30
and :49.66. But she advanced to challenge through six furlongs in 1:14.18 and
finished up strongly from there, earning an eye-catching 107 Brisnet Late Pace
rating while drawing off to win by 4 1/2 lengths. The next two runners across
the finish line, Honor D Lady and Saddle Up Jessie, returned to run 1-2 in the recent
Delaware H. (G2) ahead of 2023 Coaching Club American Oaks winner Wet Paint.
Candied's Lady's Secret
triumph yielded a 99 Beyer Speed Figure, the same number Thorpedo Anna posted
in the Acorn. If Candied is able to stick close to a slow pace at Saratoga, I
believe she'll have a shot to outkick Thorpedo Anna down the homestretch and
give trainer Todd Pletcher a record-extending ninth victory in the Coaching
Club American Oaks.
Molly Pitcher (G3) at Monmouth Park
I suppose an argument can be
made that #6 Idiomatic (3-5) is
vulnerable as a heavy favorite in the 1 1/16-mile Molly Pitcher. Last year's
champion older dirt female is exiting a defeat as the odds-on favorite in the
Ogden Phipps (G1) at Saratoga, so maybe her form has slipped a little.
But I don't see it that way.
Idiomatic ran well under adverse circumstances in the Ogden Phipps. A
less-than-perfect break left her racing wide against a slow pace set by 2023
Alabama (G1) winner Randomized, runner-up by half a length to Idiomatic in the
2023 Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1). Speed horses racing inside possibly had an
advantage on the day of the Ogden Phipps, yet Idiomatic nearly overcame that
obstacle, finishing fast (final three furlongs in about :36 4/5) to fall a head
shy of catching Randomized. Reigning champion three-year-old filly and 2023
Kentucky Oaks winner Pretty Mischievous finished another 4 1/2 lengths back in
third place.
Idiomatic started 2024 on a
high note, trouncing Pretty Mischievous and others by 3 3/4 lengths in the La
Troienne (G1) at Churchill Downs, which marked her fourth Grade 1 win. The
Molly Pitcher field has come up much lighter than the Ogden Phipps, and I see
no reason why Idiomatic can't bounce back at a short price. If you're playing
multi-race wagers on Haskell day, I strongly recommend singling Idiomatic.
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like this weekend?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
