By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
A pair of graded stakes at
Saratoga this weekend—Saturday's $500,000 Jim Dandy (G2) and Sunday's $250,000
Bowling Green (G2)—could be strongly influenced by pace dynamics.
Let's check out the fields
and see what the prospective pace scenarios mean for handicapping:
Jim Dandy (G2)
I was tempted to select
reigning champion two-year-old male #6
Fierceness (9-5) to win the Jim Dandy. On his best day, Fierceness is
sensational. He trounced proven Grade 1 winners Muth, Locked, and Timberlake by
6 1/4 lengths in the 2023 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), and his record-breaking 13
1/2-lengh demolition of the Florida Derby (G1) was a sight to behold.
But consistency isn't a
strong suit for Fierceness. He's prone to misfiring, as he did when seventh in
the Champagne (G1), third in the Holy Bull (G3), and 15th in the Kentucky Derby
(G1). He suffered poor starts in all three of those defeats, and he possibly
wasn't helped by pressing a hot pace in the Kentucky Derby.
Fierceness set an
uncontested, modest pace in the Florida Derby, and if he figured to enjoy a
similar trip in the Jim Dandy I'd be confident in his win chances. But although
the Jim Dandy drew a small six-horse field, it's stuffed with speed horses. #2 Seize the Grey (6-1) wired the
Preakness (G1) and set the pace in the Belmont (G1), #3 Batten Down (5-1) led all the way in the Ohio Derby (G3), and #4 Pony Express (20-1) exits a
gate-to-wire maiden victory at Santa Anita.
A contested pace seems
likely, so I'm going to back #1 Sierra
Leone (1-1), a tried-and-true closer who has never run a bad race. After
launching big rallies to win the Risen Star (G2) and Blue Grass (G1), the son
of Gun Runner performed well in the Triple Crown, finishing second (beaten only
a nose) in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and third by 1 1/2 lengths in the Belmont
(G1).
Both the Kentucky Derby and
the Belmont took place over 1 1/4 miles, and prior to the Belmont I argued that
the distance might be a little farther than Sierra Leone wants to run. I'm
optimistic cutting back to 1 1/8 miles for the Jim Dandy will strengthen his
finishing kick and lead to victory under jockey Flavien Prat, a 31% winner
teaming up with trainer Chad Brown over the last two months per Brisnet
statistics.
For the minor awards, #5 Gould's Gold (15-1) is an intriguing
longshot. He gamely chased Batten Down every step of the way in the Ohio Derby
and closed some ground down the lane to finish second by 1 3/4 lengths. I
envision Gould's Gold settling toward the back of the Jim Dandy field, likely
in fifth position, and if a fast pace unfolds he'll have a chance to pick up
the pieces and snatch a top-three finish.
Bowling Green (G2)
It seems like an honest pace
ought to develop in the Bowling Green. The 1 3/8-mile turf test features a
tried-and-true pacesetter in the form of #6
Strong Quality, a stakes winner on both dirt and turf this year. #3 Sugoi, a gate-to-wire winner of the
1 1/2-mile Louisville (G3) over the Churchill Downs lawn, likewise brings speed
to the table. Louisville runner-up #7
Strong Tide figures to be prominently placed as well.
All this speed is, in my
opinion, good news for #2 Silver Knott.
Runner-up by a nose in the 2022 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1), Silver Knott
went 0-for-6 during his three-year-old campaign, though he did place in a
quartet of graded stakes.
Silver Knott has turned
things around impressively since stretching out in distance as a four-year-old.
First he tracked a slow pace on his way to victory in the 1 1/2-mile Elkhorn
(G2) at Keeneland, in which he defeated multiple graded stakes winner Missed
the Cut by 1 1/2 lengths. Then Silver Knott cut back slightly in distance for
the 1 3/8-mile Man o' War (G2) at Aqueduct and romped by 4 1/2 lengths over a
field that included three-time Grade/Group 1 winner Nations Pride.
I was quite impressed by
Silver Knott's Man o' War performance. The pace was decent over a good turf
course—:24.09, :48.09, and 1:13.48—and Silver Knott confidently settled in
third place, as many as six lengths behind a runaway leader, before smoothly taking
command to dominate.
I envision Silver Knott
working out a similar trip in the Bowling Green. If the pace is on the quick
side, he can settle and get first run when the leaders tire. If, on the other
hand, the tempo is unexpectedly slow, Silver Knott can stay close as he did in
the Elkhorn and still take control when it counts.
For all these reasons, I
view Silver Knott as one of the most likely stakes winners of the weekend. #1 Ohana Honor, runner-up in the Man o'
War and most recently third in a strong edition of the 1 3/16-mile Manhattan
(G1), can complete the exacta.
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like this weekend?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
