By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
A fantastic week of racing
is on the agenda at Saratoga. Nine stakes (six of them graded) will take place
between Friday and Sunday.
Two of the most interesting
races are the $1 million Whitney (G1) and the $150,000 Birdstone S. The Whitney
has drawn a deep 12-horse field, while the Birdstone has attracted one of the
most talented horses in North America.
Let's analyze both races:
Whitney (G1)
I came into this week with a
notion that I would select #11 Arthur's
Ride (8-1) to spring a Whitney upset. I've long believed this son of Tapit
has the talent of a serious graded stakes horse, and I loved his 12 3/4-length
romp in a 1 1/4-mile $62,500 allowance optional claimer at Saratoga two months
ago, for which he earned a massive 111 Beyer Speed Figure.
But Arthur's Ride secured an
uncontested lead that day, and he's unlikely to do so again while stepping up
in class and cutting back a furlong in distance. I might have still backed him
to overcome those obstacles, but there's rain in the forecast for Saturday at
Saratoga, and that could be problematic since Arthur's Ride never fired at all
in his lone start over a sloppy track, finishing ninth by nearly two-dozen
lengths in an $80,000 allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs two starts
back. Maybe the slop had nothing to do with Arthur's Ride's no-show, but
coupled with the other obstacles he's facing, the Whitney is shaping up as a potentially
tough spot.
Morning line favorite #3 National Treasure (9-5) hasn't run
well over wet tracks either, going 0-for-2, but I'm inclined to believe he's
improved a lot since finishing fifth over muddy footing in the Travers (G1) and
fourth over a wet-fast track in the Awesome Again (G1) last year. Those efforts
were pretty much in line with his earlier sixth-place finish in the Belmont
(G1) and fourth-place run in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) over fast tracks.
We saw National Treasure's
talent on display when he wired a slow-paced edition of the 2023 Preakness
(G1), but he really came to hand last fall, when he finished second by a nose to
Horse of the Year Cody's Wish in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1). Since then,
he's been in excellent form. He kicked off 2024 with a determined victory in
the 1 1/8-mile Pegasus World Cup (G1) over next-out Saudi Cup (G1) winner Senor
Buscador. Then, after finishing a close fourth (beaten 1 1/2 lengths) in the
Saudi Cup, National Treasure returned from a layoff to wire the one-mile
Metropolitan H. (G1) by 6 1/4 lengths.
Although 12 horses have
entered the Whitney, National Treasure and Arthur's Ride loom as the only
obvious pacesetters. With Arthur's Ride marooned in post 11, the door is wide open
for National Treasure to secure the lead and never look back. You have to go
back to Honor Code in 2015 to find the last Whitney winner who raced farther
back than first or second place in the early stages, and Hall of Fame trainer
Bob Baffert has gone 2-for-2 in the Whitney over the last decade (winning with
McKinzie in 2019, and Improbable in 2020), so even though it's an uncreative
opinion I'm picking National Treasure to shine on Saturday.
Birdstone S.
Whether the Saratoga main
track is dry or wet on Sunday, #5 Next looks
like a lock to win the 1 3/4-mile Birdstone for the second straight year.
Next is an absolute beast running
long on dirt. Since stretching out over distances from 1 3/8 miles to 1 3/4
miles, Next has won seven of eight starts while competing exclusively against
stakes competition. He smashed last year's Birdstone over a fast track by 11
3/4 lengths, after which he tackled sloppy, sealed footing in the 1 1/2-mile
Greenwood Cup (G3) at Parx and won by 25 lengths, bringing his record over off
tracks to 3-for-3.
Next is better than ever
this year. He opened 2024 with an 11 1/4-length win in the Isaac Murphy
Marathon S. at Churchill Downs, in which he clocked 1 1/2 miles in the
track-record time of 2:27.93. Then he cut back to 1 3/8 miles for the Brooklyn
(G2) and crushed Suburban (G2) winner Crupi (who is entered in the Whitney) by
9 1/4 lengths, earning a powerful 109 Beyer Speed Figure.
Next ran the final furlong
of the Brooklyn in a terrific :11.89, and this after running his previous two
quarter-mile splits in about :23.74 and :23.90. With that kind of finishing
speed, it's hard to imagine anyone upsetting Next in the Birdstone. He's
already defeated key rivals #2
Masqueparade and #4 Time for Trouble,
and the other two entrants—#1 Slip
Mahoney and #3 Nimitz Class—have
been out of form in recent starts.
For all these reasons, I
view Next as the most likely stakes winner of the weekend.
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Whitney and Birdstone?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
