By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
Rain could impact several of
the high-profile turf races taking place on the East Coast this weekend.
Already the Arlington Million (G1), Beverly D. (G2), and Secretariat (G2) have
been delayed by a day, while the Saratoga Derby (G1) and Fourstardave H. (G1)
may soon follow suit.
Even amidst all the
uncertainty, we'll aim to pick three winners this weekend:
Arlington Million (G1) at Colonial Downs
The historic Arlington
Million has been delayed from Saturday to Sunday due to rain, and even with the
delay, there's a chance the 1 1/4-mile grass race will take place over a
rain-soaked course that's less than firm.
That shouldn't bother #4 Nations Pride (8-5), the
globetrotting Godolphin homebred who has won at the highest level in the U.S.,
Canada, and Germany. He's won six times over the Arlington Million's 1 1/4-mile
distance, including when taking the 2023 Canadian International (G1) by 2 1/4
lengths over yielding turf and the 2023 Grosser Dallmayr-Preis Bayerisches
Zuchtrennen (G1) over soft ground at Munich by three lengths.
Nations Pride is winless this
year, finishing third off a layoff in the Man o' War (G2) at Aqueduct before
running second in Saratoga's Manhattan (G1). But Nations Pride kept good
company in those races, and his Manhattan effort was an improvement over the
Man o' War, so he's progressing in the right direction.
For the Arlington Million,
Nations Pride is reuniting with William Buick, who was aboard for all three of
Nations Pride's victories last year. The Arlington Million field has come up
lighter than the Manhattan, and Nations Pride has enjoyed the opportunity to
breeze three times over the Saratoga training track turf course in recent
weeks, so all signs suggest he's poised for a winning run in his third start of
the season.
#1 Integration (5-2),
who handled soft turf at Colonial Downs just fine to win the Million Preview S.
last month by 6 1/2 lengths, can complete the exacta for Hall of Fame trainer
Shug McGaughey. Integration is 3-for-3 at Colonial, most notably winning last
year's Virginia Derby (G3) by 1 1/4 lengths over three-time Grade 1 winner
Program Trading.
Galway S. at Saratoga
It remains to be seen
whether Saturday's 5 1/2-furlong Galway S. at Saratoga will remain on turf or
get transferred to dirt. If it stays on grass, then #5 Star of Mystery (2-5) looms as perhaps the likeliest stakes
winner of the weekend.
Star of Mystery has been running
with aplomb against tough competition in turf sprints. During the winter in
Dubai, she competed three times against older males, winning the Blue Point
Sprint (G2) before finishing second in the Nad Al Sheba Turf Sprint (G3) and Al
Quoz Sprint (G1). Then she took her game to the U.S. and finished third against
older males in the Jaipur (G1) at Saratoga, where she was beaten only 3 3/4
lengths by the victorious Cogburn, who set a North American record of :59.80
for 5 1/2 furlongs.
Star of Mystery returned to
the three-year-old ranks for the Quick Call (G3) against males at Saratoga last
month and rallied strongly to score by 1 1/2 lengths with a 106 Beyer Speed
Figure. The Galways is restricted to three-year-old fillies, so this is shaping
up as Star of Mystery's easiest race in quite a while. There's plenty of pace
in the field to set up Star of Mystery's late rally, and regular jockey Flavien
Prat (a 22% winner at Saratoga this meet) is retaining the mount, so her 2-5
morning line odds are warranted.
Sorrento (G3) at Del Mar
Another likely winner this
weekend is #1 Nooni in the Sorrento
for two-year-old fillies sprinting six furlongs on dirt. The Sorrento has come
up with a small but deep field; stakes winners #4 Vodka With a Twist and #5
White Sands are shipping in from the Midwest, while #2 Casalu and #3 Night Beacon
exit impressive debut victories.
But Nooni made a fantastic
impression when debuting in a five-furlong maiden special weight at Santa Anita
two months ago. The $1.8 million auction acquisition led by a minimum of two
lengths at every call and powered clear under no urging down the homestretch to
win by 9 1/2 lengths. The 78 Beyer Speed Figure she earned is the highest
number in the Sorrento field, and hot jockey Juan Hernandez (a 38% winner teaming
up with Baffert over the last two months per Brisnet stats) retains the mount, so
the stage is set for Nooni to make her stakes debut a winning one.
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like this weekend?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
