By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
Who will win Saturday's $600,000
Alabama (G1) at Saratoga?
Eight three-year-old fillies
have entered the 1 1/4-mile dirt contest, but one notable name is missing from
the entries. Thorpedo Anna, the runaway division leader after winning the
Kentucky Oaks (G1), Acorn (G1), and Coaching Club American Oaks (G1), is
passing the Alabama in favor of a start against males in next week's Travers
(G1).
Thorpedo Anna would have been
an odds-on choice to add the Alabama to her decorated record. But her absence
doesn't necessarily make the race inscrutable. To the contrary, if Thorpedo
Anna would have been an obvious win choice, isn't Coaching Club American Oaks
runner-up #7 Candied (7-5) a
perfectly logical alternative?
There's a lot to like about
Candied. She's the only proven Grade 1 winner in the Alabama field, having rallied
from midfield to win the Alcibiades (G1) at Keeneland last fall by one length.
She followed up that effort with a game third-place run in the Breeders' Cup
Juvenile Fillies (G1), in which she finished only three-quarters of a length
behind future Kentucky Oaks runner-up Just F Y I.
Candied subsequently took
five months off and ran a bit below form when returning in the Ashland (G1) at
Keeneland, finishing fourth by five lengths. But she bounced back nicely in her
second start of the season, closing from a couple lengths behind a slow pace to
conquer older rivals Honor D Lady and Saddle Up Jessie in the Lady's Secret S.
at Monmouth Park. Honor D Lady and Saddle Up Jessie flattered that form by
returning to run 1-2 in the Delaware H. (G2).
Winning the Lady's Secret prompted
Candied to take on a showdown with Thorpedo Anna in the 1 1/8-mile Coaching
Club American Oaks at Saratoga. While Candied proved to be no match for the
heavy favorite, she showed a bit more tactical speed than usual and stayed on
well to finish second by 4 1/2 lengths. In turn, Candied pulled four lengths
clear of #1 Intricate (6-1), winner
of the Golden Rod (G2) and runner-up in the Rachel Alexandra (G2).
Candied strikes me as a
filly who won't mind stretching out over 1 1/4 miles for trainer Todd Pletcher,
who has won the Alabama four times, including two of the last three editions with
Malathaat (2021) and Nest (2022). I'm optimistic that getting away from
Thorpedo Anna will open the door for Candied to secure her second Grade 1 win
in convincing fashion.
Graded stakes winners
Intricate, #2 Chatalas (8-1), and #3 Power Squeeze (9-2) are other
logical contenders. Of the trio, I slightly prefer the chances of Intricate.
Aside from a fifth-place finish in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2), Intricate hasn't
run a bad race since winning her debut at Keeneland last fall, and it's worth
noting she's the only horse to have ever defeated Thorpedo Anna, doing so by 5
1/4 lengths in the Golden Rod last fall.
But to round out exacta tickets,
I prefer a couple of up-and-comers.
The first is #4 Just Basking (5-1), who proved she
can handle 1 1/4 miles when smashing a maiden special weight during the spring
meet at Churchill Downs by 7 3/4 lengths. She's since proven her worth against
stakes competition, launching a last-to-first rally to dominate the Iowa Oaks by
4 3/4 lengths. Both her sire (Arrogate) and dam sire (Blame) won the Breeders'
Cup Classic (G1) over 1 1/4 miles, so Just Basking is bred to shine over classic
distances and should be gaining ground down the Alabama homestretch.
#6 Miss Justify (6-1),
a second Pletcher trainee, is also worth a long look. She's gone 2-for-2 since
stretching out from sprints to routes. First, she employed dueling tactics to
win a one-mile $100,000 allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs by 2 1/2
lengths. Then she rallied from midfield to take Saratoga's one-mile Wilton S.
by one length. Stretching out another quarter-mile in distance for the Alabama
is a question mark, but Miss Justify is steadily improving and has the tactical
speed to be a factor from the outset. Don't count her out of the mix.
Selections:
1st: Candied
2nd: Just Basking
3rd: Miss Justify
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Alabama?
*****
Want to test your handicapping skills against fellow Unlocking Winners readers? Check out the Unlocking Winners contest page—there's a new challenge every week! (Please note: older contest entries can be found here.)
J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
