By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
An absolutely fascinating
renewal of the $1.25 million Travers (G1) is taking place at Saratoga this
Saturday.
The 1 1/4-mile contest for
three-year-olds is stuffed with talent. Among the entrants are a champion, a
classic winner, a Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner, a Grade 1 winner who has placed in
two classics, and an undefeated stakes winner. Narrowing down the most likely
winner is anything but easy.
On his best day, the best of
the Travers entrants might be #8
Fierceness (3-1), runaway winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) and
Florida Derby (G1). Last year's champion two-year-old male ran a strong race in
the 1 1/8-mile Jim Dandy (G2) at Saratoga last month, racing wide while close
to an honest pace before turning back a challenge from #2 Sierra Leone (7-2) to win by one length.
But Fierceness is tough to
trust at a relatively short price. He's misfired as the favorite on three
high-profile occasions, finishing seventh in the Champagne (G1), third in the
Holy Bull (G3), and 15th in the Kentucky Derby (G1). He suffered poor starts in
all three of those defeats, so when things don't go Fierceness's way, he has a
tendency to falter. He can't afford a subpar effort against this deep Travers
field.
Sierra Leone may prove a
popular alternative to Fierceness. The stretch-running Blue Grass (G1) and
Risen Star (G2) winner performed well during the Triple Crown, finishing second
in the Kentucky Derby and third in the Belmont (G1). But I'm concerned Sierra
Leone will find himself with too much ground to close down the Saratoga
homestretch. He had every chance to run down Fierceness in the Jim Dandy, but
couldn't quite seal the deal.
The filly #1 Thorpedo Anna (3-1) is a brilliant
wildcard in her first start against males. She's seeking to become the first
female Travers winner since 1915 and certainly has a shot to pull it off. The
daughter of Fast Anna has won all four of her starts this year by a minimum of
four lengths, taking the Fantasy (G2), Kentucky Oaks (G1), Acorn (G1), and
Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) to become the hands-down leader of her
division. Along the way she's defeated champion two-year-old filly Just F Y I,
Ashland (G1) winner Leslie's Rose, and recent Alabama (G1) 1-2 finishers Power
Squeeze and Candied.
Still, the Travers is a
tough spot, and Thorpedo Anna must avoid breaking poorly from the starting gate
like she did in the Coaching Club American Oaks. A slow start from the rail
draw could prevent Thorpedo Anna from securing her customary position on or
near the lead and compromise her chances. Even with a perfect trip, it remains
to be seen whether Thorpedo Anna can successfully stretch out over 1 1/4 miles
for the first time while simultaneously taking on a fierce field of male
rivals.
That's why I'm siding with #7 Dornoch (5-2) as my choice to win
the Haskell. A full brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage, Dornoch
defeated Sierra Leone in the Remsen (G2) last December and did so again in the
Belmont. In the Belmont, Dornoch pressed the early pace before taking over and
turning back a challenge from the talented allowance winner Mindframe to prevail
by half a length, with Sierra Leone another length behind in third place.
Dornoch followed up his
Belmont success with a nearly identical triumph in the Haskell (G1) at Monmouth
Park. After carving out the pace, Dornoch tenaciously turned back another
challenge from Mindframe to win by 1 1/4 lengths, with last year's Champagne
(G1) winner Timberlake another five lengths back in third place.
Having won back-to-back Grade
1 races against tough competition, Dornoch is a logical choice to keep his win
streak going in the Travers, which is taking place over the same track and
distance as the Belmont. Drawing outside the other potential speed horses,
including undefeated Curlin S. winner #3
Unmatched Wisdom (8-1) and Ohio Derby (G3) hero #5 Batten Down (20-1), affords Dornoch plenty of options for
working out a perfect trip. The only poor performances of his career came when
fourth in the Blue Grass (G1) and tenth in the Kentucky Derby (G1), two races
in which Dornoch wound up racing behind rivals. I actually don't anticipate
there being a wild rush for the early lead in the Travers, so Dornoch may find
himself sitting a comfortable trip under two-time Travers-winning jockey Luis
Saez, setting the stage for victory.
Selections
1st: Dornoch
2nd: Fierceness
3rd: Thorpedo Anna
4th: Sierra Leone
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Travers?
Lock of the Week
As an addendum to this post, I would like to mention that—in my opinion—the most likely winner of a graded stakes this weekend is #5 Sweet Azteca in Sunday's 6 1/2-furlong $100,000 Rancho Bernardo H. (G3) at Del Mar.
Sweet Azteca has been on fire in recent starts. During the winter she won a 6 1/2-furlong $50,000 allowance optional claimer at Santa Anita by a dozen lengths. Then she stretched out over one mile to defeat three-time Grade 1 winner Adare Manor in the Beholder Mile (G1). Most recently, Sweet Azteca ended a four-month layoff with a five-length romp in the 6 1/2-furlong Great Lady M (G2).
At one time or another, Sweet Azteca has defeated four of the six rivals she'll face in the Rancho Bernardo. She'll be a short price, but the form lines suggest Sweet Azteca is almost unbeatable in her Del Mar debut. She's a logical single for multi-race wagers.
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
