By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
A fantastic holiday weekend of
horse racing is on the agenda. Rich stakes races can be found all across the
country, and some of the best horses in training are slated to compete.
We'll analyze three races
this week: Saturday's $1 million Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar, Sunday's $1
million Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) at Saratoga, and Sunday's $125,000 Shared
Belief S. at Del Mar.
Jockey Club Gold Cup
There are plenty of reasons
why #7 Arthur's Ride (4-5) is the
heavy morning line favorite to win the 1 1/4-mile Jockey Club Gold Cup. Let's
rattle off the three big ones:
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He was easily best
against a quality field in the 1 1/8-mile Whitney (G1) at Saratoga last month,
carving out a fast pace and opening up a clear lead before staying on to win by
2 1/4 lengths.
-
He previously set a
more relaxed pace on his way to dominating a 1 1/4-mile $62,500 allowance
optional claimer at Saratoga by 12 3/4 lengths.
-
Those victories
yielded powerful Beyer Speed Figures of 110 and 111, easily the two highest
numbers in Sunday's field.
Clearly Arthur's World has
an abundance of talent and loves Saratoga. There are no certainties in horse
racing, but Arthur's Ride looks mighty tough to beat in the Jockey Club Gold
Cup. He's the only definite speed horse on paper, so if Arthur's Ride secures
an uncontested lead—like he did in his Saratoga allowance score—his rivals are
likely running for second place.
Speaking of second place, #3 Bright Future (10-1) offers some
appeal as a double-digit longshot to use in the exacta and trifecta. He completely
misfired in the Whitney, finishing eighth by nearly two-dozen lengths. But that
was his first start over an off track (the surface was muddy and sealed), so
perhaps Bright Future didn't care for the footing.
Bright Future started 2024
with a decisive victor in the Salvator Mile (G3), in which he overcame getting
shuffled back around the far turn to rally and win by 1 3/4 lengths. Last year,
he flaunted his talent with a pace-pressing victory in the Jockey Club Gold Cup
over Grade 1 winner Proxy. Bright Future is adding blinkers in defense of his
Jockey Club Gold Cup title, and if returning to fast footing triggers a
rebound, a spot in the top three isn't out of reach.
Pacific Classic (G1)
It's not unheard of for a
mare to win the 1 1/4-mile Pacific Classic—Beholder dominated her competition
in 2015. I'm optimistic #7 Adare Manor (9-5)
can emulate Beholder with a victory over male rivals.
Adare Manor has long been a
force to reckon with against fillies and mares. Since 2022, she's won the Apple
Blossom H. (G1), two editions of the Clement L. Hirsch (G1), two renewals of
the Santa Margarita (G2), the Zenyatta (G2), the Santa Maria (G2), and the Las
Virgenes (G3). That's three Grade 1 wins and eight graded stakes wins, for
those keeping count.
I loved Adare Manor's
performance in the Clement L. Hirsch at Del Mar last month. Much of her success
has come with pacesetting tactics, but in the Hirsch, Adare Manor was beaten to
the lead and wound up boxed in behind rivals. Despite getting shuffled back around
the far turn, Adare Manor unleashed a bold rally once in the clear, reeling in
multiple graded stakes winner Scylla (runner-up in the Grade 1 Ballerina H. last
week) to dominate by 3 1/4 lengths.
The Pacific Classic field
hasn't come up especially deep; aside from Adare Manor, the only Grade 1 winner
in the field is 2022 Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) winner #2 There Goes Harvard (15-1), who hasn't cracked the trifecta in
his last five starts, including two this year. Adare Manor has the pedigree to
shine while stretching out over 1 1/4 miles and appears well-spotted to beat
the boys in Del Mar's signature race.
For second place, give #3 Dr. Venkman (5-2) a try. The former
sprinter has only run long once, winning the 1 1/16-mile San Diego H. (G2) in
fine fashion. The improving son of Ghostzapper still has upside, and his
tactical speed should land him right in contention turning for home.
Shared Belief S.
It could be easy to overlook
on this busy weekend, but multiple Grade 1 winner #3 Muth is making his return to action in the Shared Belief S., a
one-mile contest for three-year-olds.
Muth's form lines are excellent.
Last year, he sandwiched an American Pharoah (G1) victory between runner-up
finishes in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) and the Best Pal (G3). This year he's
2-for-2, winning the San Vicente (G2) and Arkansas Derby (G1).
Only two horses have ever
defeated Muth: champion Fierceness, who won the Travers (G1) last week, and Del
Mar Futurity (G1) hero Prince of Monaco, runner-up in the H. Allen Jerkens
Memorial (G1) and Woody Stephens (G1) this year.
Muth's Arkansas Derby
triumph came at the expense of Mystik Dan, who returned to win the Kentucky
Derby (G1) and finish second in the Preakness (G1). A fever forced Muth to miss
a scheduled Preakness start, but he's been training fast at Del Mar (where he clocked
a bullet five furlongs in :58 2/5 last Saturday), and a typical performance should
land Muth in the Shared Belief winner's circle.
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like this weekend?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
