By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
Closing week of the Del Mar
summer meet is underway. Two final Grade 1 races wrap up the action: Saturday's
$300,000 Del Mar Debutante (G1) for two-year-old fillies and Sunday's $300,000
Del Mar Futurity (G1) for two-year-olds.
Both races are seven-furlong
dirt sprints. Both have drawn promising fields that could produce serious
contenders for the 2024 Breeders' Cup at Del Mar.
Let's dive in and start
handicapping:
Del Mar Debutante (G1)
No trainer has won the Del
Mar Debutante on more occasions than Bob Baffert. The Hall of Fame conditioner
has saddled 10 winners since 1995, including three of the last five.
Baffert can pick up an 11th
victory courtesy of #2 Nooni, a
daughter of the Grade 1-winning sprinter Win Win Win. Nooni is undefeated in
two starts and brings serious speed to the Del Mar Debutante.
Nooni debuted in a
five-furlong maiden special weight on June 13 at Santa Anita. The result? An
effortless victory. She broke quickly and led by daylight at every call to
dominate by 9 1/2 lengths, earning a 91 Brisnet Speed rating.
Nooni wasn't quite as authoritative
in the Aug. 10 Sorrento (G3) dashing six furlongs at Del Mar, but she
nevertheless led all the way through splits of :21.87 and :44.90 to prevail by
1 1/2 lengths over #4 Vodka With a Twist,
winner of the Debutante S. at Churchill Downs. Nooni's second triumph yielded a
95 Brisnet Speed rating.
Vodka With a Twist is back
for a rematch in the Del Mar Debutante, but I'm confident Nooni can maintain
her advantage. The Sorrento marked her first start in two months, and she's
trained strongly since then, breezing five furlongs in :59 2/5, five furlongs
in 1:00, and six furlongs in 1:11 4/5. She's retaining the services of Del Mar's
leading jockey Juan Hernandez (a 45% winner teaming up with Baffert over the
last two months per Brisnet statistics), and she's drawn outside the other key
speed horse #1 Proud Starlet, so Nooni
has options for working out a favorable trip and thus keeping her unbeaten
record intact.
Speaking of Proud Starlet,
she showed serious early speed in her debut sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs at Del
Mar, setting fractions of :21.54 and :44.92 on her way to victory by 4 1/4
lengths. The Tim Yakteen trainee enters off a near-bullet five-furlong workout
in :59 and may set the pace from the rail post. Don't be surprised if she hangs
on to round out the exacta.
Del Mar Futurity (G1)
Baffert is also the
winningest trainer in Del Mar Futurity history, saddling 17 winners since 1996.
That includes the last three winners in a row: Pinehurst (2021), Cave Rock
(2022), and Prince of Monaco (2023).
Baffert trains three of the
seven entrants in the 2024 Del Mar Futurity. The expected favorite is #1 Getaway Car, but debut winners #2 Gaming and #7 Citizen Bull also boast solid credentials.
I believe all three colts
have the ability to develop into stakes horses. Getaway Car and Gaming in
particular have shown eye-catching early maturity and brilliance. I believe one
of these two will visit the Del Mar Futurity winner's circle, but which one?
Getaway Car has more
experience. He's been busy at Del Mar this summer, going 2-for-2. He debuted in
a five-furlong maiden special weight on July 20, in which he led all the way to
win easily by 3 1/4 lengths. Actually, "easily" understates his dominance—he wasn't
asked for much run at all by jockey Juan Hernandez.
The result was the same in
the six-furlong Best Pal (G3) on Aug. 11. Again Getaway Car set the pace, cruising
along through fractions of :22.20 and :45.17. Again he kicked clear under
little urging from Hernandez, dominating by 5 1/2 lengths in 1:10.73.
Now, I pondered the
possibility of backing Gaming to upset Getaway Car. On the same Aug. 11 card as
the Best Pal, Gaming easily won a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight with
splits of :21.87, :44.71, and 1:10.51—faster at every stage than Getaway Car. (Gaming's
final time was 1:17.42.) And Equibase lists the run-up distance for both races
as 45 feet, so the times should theoretically be comparable.
But two hours elapsed
between the two races, and speed figures suggest the track may have sped up by
the time of Gaming's maiden win. Getaway Car earned 96 Brisnet Speed rating and
an 88 Beyer Speed Figure compared to Gaming's 90 and 81 on the same scales. And
while Hernandez rode both colts on Aug. 11, he's sticking with Getaway Car in
the Del Mar Futurity.
Ultimately, I'll trust the
speed figures, Hernandez, and my own eyes to conclude that Getaway Car is the
horse to beat in the Del Mar Futurity. I'll make Gaming my second choice, with
Citizen Bull and flashy Del Mar maiden winner #6 McKinzie Street the ones I'll use to round out trifecta and
superfecta tickets.
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Del Mar Debutante and Del Mar Futurity?
J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
