By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
An exciting slate of races
is taking place across North America this Saturday.
At Churchill Downs, a
five-stakes card is highlighted by the Iroquois (G3) and Pocahontas (G3), the
opening legs of the Road to the Kentucky Derby and Road to the Kentucky Oaks.
At Belmont at the Big A, the Jockey Club Oaks (G3) is the feature event. And at
Woodbine, there are six graded stakes on the agenda, including a quartet of
Grade 1s.
We'll focus our attention on
one of Woodbine's top-tier prizes: the E. P. Taylor (G1) for fillies and mares
racing 1 1/4 miles on turf. At first glance, it might seem like a
less-than-compelling race to handicap since only six horses have entered. But
the small field size notwithstanding, I believe the E. P. Taylor will end in an
upset.
The favorites, to their
credit, are a quality bunch. #2 Moira (7-5)
has been competing with aplomb against tough competition for three seasons. She
finished third by 1 1/4 lengths against an international field in the Breeders'
Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1) last fall, and she's arguably better than ever
this year. In the Diana (G1), Moira closed gamely against a slow early/fast
late race shape to finish second by three-quarters of a length. Then she
rallied resolutely against another slow pace to win the Beverly D. (G2) over reigning
E. P. Taylor winner #3 Fev Rover (7-2),
who is back to defend her title.
Moira and Fev Rover are
logical win threats at Woodbine, as is the three-year-old filly #6 Cinderella's Dream (2-1), who has
conquered her own age group in the Belmont Oaks (G1) and Saratoga Oaks (G2).
Cinderella's Dream boasts a strong turn-of-foot and shouldn't be underestimated
for the formidable jockey/trainer duo of William Buick and Charlie Appleby, who
have teamed up to win eight Breeders' Cup races since 2017.
Nevertheless, I'm thinking
outside the box and backing #5 Blue Rose
Cen (8-1) to win the E. P. Taylor. Based in France, the daughter of
Churchill ranked among the best fillies in her country in both 2022 and 2023.
She hasn't been as productive this year, but her back class is formidable.
As a two-year-old in 2022,
Blue Rose Cen won four out of six starts. She ended the season in resounding
fashion, taking the Prix d'Aumale (G3) and Prix Marcel Boussac (G1) in
succession. The latter victory came by five lengths.
Blue Rose Cen again won four
out of six starts in 2023. She started the year on a high note, rattling off
triumphs in the Prix de la Grotte (G3), Poule d'Essai des Pouliches (G1), and
Prix de Diane (G3). In the Prix de Diana, held over about 1 5/16 miles, Blue
Rose Cen romped by four lengths.
Blue Rose Cen subsequently
missed the trifecta while facing older rivals in the Nassau (G1) and Prix
Vermeille (G1), but those races featured deep fields and Blue Rose Cen was
beaten by modest margins both times. In the Prix Vermeille, contested over a
distance (about 1 1/2 miles) likely farther than Blue Rose Cen's best, she was
beaten only 2 1/2 lengths by future Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) winner and
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf runner-up Warm Heart.
Despite these defeats, Blue
Rose Cen recaptured her winning ways in her final start of 2023, taking the
Prix de l'Opera (G1) over about 1 1/4 miles. That triumph marked the fourth
Group 1 win of her decorated career.
If Blue Rose Cen had gone
unraced since the Prix de l'Opera, she would be a heavy favorite to take the E.
P. Taylor. But four starts in 2024 have failed to yield a single top-three
finish, hence Blue Rose Cen's ranking as a longshot in her North American
debut.
However, some of Blue Rose
Cen's efforts are better than they first appear. She faced males in her first
two starts of the season, finishing fifth (beaten only 2 1/2 lengths) in the
Prix d'Ispahan (G1) and seventh (behind reigning Breeders' Cup Turf winner
Auguste Rodin) in the Prince of Wales's (G1) at Royal Ascot.
Back against fellow fillies
and mares, Blue Rose Cen struggled home last of seven in the Prix Rothschild
(G1) racing about one mile. But when she stretched back out over roughly 1 1/4
miles for the Prix Jean Romanet (G1) last month, she fared much better, finishing
fourth while beaten only three-quarters of a length by Mqse De Sevigne, winner
of the Prix Jean Rothschild and Prix d'Ispahan.
In other words, Blue Rose
Cen is rounding back into form just in time for the E. P. Taylor. Racing 1 1/4
miles at Woodbine should suit Blue Rose Cen just fine, and it's worth noting
she's adding Lasix, which could potentially trigger improvement.
Overall, the form lines Blue
Rose Cen brings into the E. P. Taylor are excellent. She's been facing fierce
competition race after race after race, and I believe she'll find the E. P.
Taylor to be an easier spot, setting the stage for an upset victory.
Selections
1st: Blue Rose Cen
2nd: Moira
3rd: Cinderella's Dream
Lock of the Week
If you watched Royal Ascot
earlier this year, then you doubtlessly came away impressed by Bedtime Story. The two-year-old
daughter of British superstar Frankel was nothing less than sensational while
facing males in the seven-furlong Chesham S., dominating 14 rivals by 9 1/2
lengths.
Bedtime Story has done
nothing wrong since then. She's followed up with victories in the Silver Flash
(G3) and Debutante (G2), setting the stage for a winning Group 1 debut in
Sunday's seven-furlong Moyglare Stud (G1) at the Curragh in Ireland.
The field for the Moyglare
Stud has yet to be finalized, but Bedtime Story is an overwhelming favorite
among British bookmakers, who are generally offering 8-11 odds. With her unblemished
4-for-4 record and obvious talent, this Aidan O'Brien-trained filly looms as
one of the likeliest winners anywhere in the world this weekend.
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like this weekend?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
