By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
I've puzzled over
handicapping Saturday's $1 million Pennsylvania Derby (G1) at Parx Racing. The
reason? For the most part, the 11 horses entered in this 1 1/8-mile race
haven't run especially fast on the Beyer Speed Figure scale, suggesting a
longshot won't need much improvement to snatch victory.
That's not to say there
aren't accomplished runners in the field. To the contrary, the Pennsylvania
Derby has attracted a quality field. Take morning line favorite #7 Dragoon Guard (9-5), who is a neck
away from being undefeated in five starts for high-percentage trainer Brad Cox.
Since finishing second by a neck in his debut against future Remington
Springboard Mile S. winner Otto the Conqueror, Dragoon Guard has rattled off
four straight wins by a minimum of 2 1/2 lengths, including triumphs in the
Indiana Derby (G3) and West Virginia Derby (G3). But his last three Beyers have
all come in at 91—has he reached a plateau?
Dragoon Guard's Indiana
Derby triumph came at the expense of #11
Stronghold (5-2), who raced bottled up in traffic for much of the race
before finishing up nicely to gain second place by 2 1/2 lengths. The Kentucky
Derby (G1) seventh-place finisher won the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and Sunland
Park Derby (G1) during the first few months of 2024, but his career-best 90
Beyer looks a little light.
#2 Seize the Grey (5-1)
ran meaningfully faster than the Pennsylvania Derby favorites when wiring the
Preakness (G1) over Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan; his 2 1/4-length victory
earned a 100 Beyer. But the Preakness took place over a muddy, sealed track.
Seize the Grey earned an 88 Beyer when winning the Pat Day Mile (G2) over fast
footing two weeks prior to the Preakness, and returning to fast footing for the
Belmont (G1) and Jim Dandy (G2) yielded defeats by double-digit margins.
Viewed from this
perspective, the Pennsylvania Derby appears ripe for an upset. Wouldn't it be
nice if there were a longshot contender with Beyer Speed Figures strong enough
to put him in the hunt against the favorites?
Such a longshot does exist.
Best of all, he regularly earns higher Beyers than the favorites. Who is he? #8 Unmatched Wisdom (8-1).
Unmatched Wisdom didn't
debut until May 10, when he employed pace-tracking tactics to trounce a
one-mile maiden special weight at Aqueduct by 6 1/4 lengths. His reward? A 98
Beyer.
Some might quibble that
Unmatched Wisdom earned that number over a muddy, sealed track, but he's since
proven it wasn't a fluke. In a 1 1/8-mile allowance against older horses on
June 22 at Aqueduct, Unmatched Wisdom pressed the pace before taking over to
win by 5 3/4 lengths with a 93 Beyer. And when he returned to his own age group
for the 1 1/8-mile Curlin S. at Saratoga, Unmatched Wisdom led all the way to
win by one length with a 99 Beyer. Finishing third by four lengths was #4 Timeout (10-1), who subsequently
finished second by half a length in a 1 1/8-mile allowance against older horses
at Aqueduct.
So why isn't Unmatched
Wisdom the Pennsylvania Derby favorite? It's because he never factored in the 1
1/4-mile Travers (G1) at Saratoga last time out, finishing seventh by 18 3/4
lengths in his first career defeat. But nothing went right for Unmatched Wisdom
that day—he got bumped around at the start, wound up racing off the pace for
the first time, and then had one of his leg wraps come loose with more than
half the race remaining. The Equibase result chart notes he "dragged [the leg
wrap]... behind him three to four wide into the far turn." Even with all this
trouble, Unmatched Wisdom earned an 86 Beyer.
If you forgive Unmatched
Wisdom's Travers effort, he's a perfectly logical Pennsylvania Derby favorite.
Drawing post eight gives him options for working out a favorable trip stalking
the leaders, and it's worth noting he's reuniting with jockey Flavien Prat, who
was aboard for each of Unmatched Wisdom's three victories. If those 8-1 morning
line odds hold up (and I have my doubts), Unmatched Wisdom is a compelling
play.
Bonus pick: Greenwood Cup (G3)
Also on the Saturday card at
Parx is the $200,000 Greenwood Cup (G3), a 1 1/2-mile contest in which #9 Next (1-5) figures to start as an
overwhelming favorite.
Next wired last year's
Greenwood Cup by 25 effortless lengths, and he remains a dominant long-distance
dirt racer this year. He's 3-for-3 in 2024, winning the 1 1/2-mile Isaac Murphy
Marathon in track-record time before dominating the 1 3/8-mile Brooklyn (G2) by
9 1/4 lengths and the 1 3/4-mile Birdstone S. by an unbelievably easy 22 1/4
lengths.
There are no certainties in
horse racing, but I'm having trouble imagining a way for Next to lose the
Greenwood Cup. He's one of only two horses in the field who shows early speed
with any regularity, and the other—#3
Ridin With Biden (10-1)—finished third in last year's Greenwood Cup after
chasing Next's early pace. Next looms as perhaps the likeliest stakes winner of
the weekend.
For second place, try #6 Truculent (5-1). He smashed a 1
1/16-mile $40,000 allowance optional claimer at Monmouth Park by 8 1/2 lengths,
and stretching out over 1 1/2 miles shouldn't be an issue—during the spring at
Oaklawn Park, he finished second by a head in a 1 3/4-mile $10,000 starter
allowance.
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like at Parx this Saturday?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
