By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
Five weeks out from the
Breeders' Cup, an action-packed Saturday at Santa Anita is highlighted by the
$1 million California Crown (G1).
The California Crown is a
rebranding of the Awesome Again, coupling a new name and a dramatically richer
purse with the date, distance, and Grade 1 status of the Awesome Again. The
result is a stellar seven-horse field featuring five Grade/Group 1 winners.
Many bettors will view the
Awesome Again as a rematch between #3
National Treasure and #6 Senor
Buscador. They're the most accomplished runners in the field, and they've
met twice already this year, with each winning once.
National Treasure has been a
top-tier competitor since 2022, when he placed in the American Pharoah (G1) and
Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1). As a three-year-old last year he capitalized on a
slow pace to wire the Preakness (G1), then reiterated his class with a nose
defeat against eventual Horse of the Year Cody's Wish in the Breeders' Cup Dirt
Mile (G1).
This year, National Treasure
has mixed excellent performances with subpar ones. He started the year on a
grand note, employing pace-pressing tactics to defeat Senor Buscador by a neck
in the Pegasus World Cup (G1). But then he faltered to finish fourth behind
Senor Buscador in Saudi Arabia's $20 million Saudi Cup (G1).
Back home in the U.S.,
National Treasure led from start to finish in the Metropolitan H. (G1), romping
by 6 1/4 lengths. That effort stamped him as an odds-on favorite for the
Whitney (G1), but after getting boxed in behind rivals over a muddy track, he
faded to finish sixth by 10 lengths.
So which version of National
Treasure will we see in the California Crown? Given that National Treasure hasn't
cracked the trifecta in three starts over wet tracks, I'm inclined to forgive
his misfire when changing running styles over muddy footing in the Whitney. I'll
also overlook his Saudi Cup defeat; he was only beaten 1 1/2 lengths over the unfamiliar
surface at Riyadh that includes sand and wood chips, and it's possible the
track was less than ideal for National Treasure. In short, I expect we'll see
National Treasure rebound to his best in the California Crown.
I also respect the chances
of Senor Buscador. He's improved a lot since his third-place finish in the 2023
Awesome Again. A pure deep closer, Senor Buscador ended 2023 with a runner-up
finish in the Cigar Mile H. (G2), in which he was compromised by a speed-favoring
track. He then closed resolutely to finish second by a neck against National
Treasure in the Pegasus World Cup before conquering that rival (and several other
accomplished horses) in the Saudi Cup.
Following a third-place
finish in the Dubai World Cup (G1), Senor Buscador took time off. He returned
at Del Mar last month with a fourth-place finish in the seven-furlong Pat O'Brien
(G2). The distance was much shorter than ideal for Senor Buscador, so I thought
he ran respectably off the layoff. That sprint sharpener should set the stage
for a competitive showing in the California Crown.
But guess what? I'm picking
neither National Treasure nor Senor Buscador to win the California Crown. I
believe they'll round out the trifecta behind National Treasure's
three-year-old stablemate #5 Muth.
Muth ranked among the best
juveniles of 2023, winning the American Pharoah by 3 3/4 lengths before
finishing second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile against champion Fierceness, who
has since added the Florida Derby (G1) and Travers (G1) to his record.
This year, Muth is unbeaten
in three starts. He won the seven-furlong San Vicente (G2) by 2 3/4 lengths,
then proved his worth over 1 1/8 miles in the Arkansas Derby (G1), winning by
two lengths over a field including next-out Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Mystik
Dan and Champagne (G1) hero Timberlake.
Unfortunately, a fever
prevented Muth from starting in the Preakness, and he wound up spending five
months on the sidelines. Trainer Bob Baffert considered Muth for races like the
Haskell (G1) and Pacific Classic (G1), but ultimately brought his star
sophomore back in the one-mile Shared Belief S. on Sept. 1 at Del Mar.
I don't think Muth was
cranked for a peak showing in his comeback, but nevertheless he showed speed on
his way to victory by two lengths over fellow California Crown entrant #7 Indispensable and Santa Anita Derby
(G1) runner-up Imagination.
Having shaken off the rust,
I believe Muth will improve significantly in his first start against older
horses. Two years ago, Baffert sent out
Triple Crown alumni Medina Spirit to win the Shared Belief in workmanlike
fashion off a layoff. In his next start, Medina Spirit crushed older rivals—including
Santa Anita H. (G1) winners Express Train and Idol—by five lengths in the
Awesome Again.
I believe Muth can follow
the same path. He only needs about 6-8 points of improvement on the Beyer Speed
Figure scale to have an excellent shot at upsetting National Treasure and Senor
Buscador, and I'm confident he can step forward by that amount.
Selections
1st: Muth
2nd: National Treasure
3rd: Senor Buscador
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the California Crown?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
