By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
On Aug. 23 at Saratoga, we
witnessed one of the most exciting races so far in 2024.
The Personal Ensign (G1) for
fillies and mares racing 1 1/8 miles drew a stellar field. Reigning champion older
dirt female Idiomatic started as the 4-5 favorite against multiple Grade 1
winner Randomized, the Breeders' Cup-placed three-time graded stakes winner
Raging Sea, the Grade 1-placed multiple graded stakes winner Xigera, and graded
stakes winner Soul of an Angel.
Bettors largely viewed the
race as a rematch between Idiomatic and Randomized, separated by half a length
when finishing 1-2 in the 2023 Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1). The two fast females
had met once since, with Idiomatic defeating the slow-starting and wide-racing
Idiomatic by a head in the 1 1/8-mile Ogden Phipps (G1) at Saratoga.
Idiomatic wasn't about to
let Randomized get away with an easy trip in the Personal Ensign. When
Randomized stumbled at the start, Idiomatic—breaking to her inside—dashed to
the lead. Randomized quickly recovered and raced up to engage Idiomatic, so the
two favorites wound up dueling for the lead through increasingly stiff
fractions of :23.28, :46.66, and 1:10.53. With three furlongs remaining, they
seemed to be in a match race, with the rest of the field six lengths behind the
dueling leaders.
Randomized gave way at the
top of the stretch, and Idiomatic surged to a four-length lead. But then from
out of the clouds came Raging Sea, gobbling up ground on the outside. As
Idiomatic grew leg-weary from her early duel, Raging Sea surged in time to
prevail by a head, with Idiomatic pulling 10 1/4 lengths clear of Soul of an
Angel. Randomized finished five lengths behind in fourth place.
The Personal Ensign has
already produced one next-out winner, as Soul of an Angel came back to take the
Princess Rooney (G3) by 3 1/4 lengths, earning a fees-paid berth to the
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1). I suspect the Personal Ensign will
produce two more winners this week, as Idiomatic and Raging Sea have gone their
separate ways to target graded stakes on an action-packed weekend of Breeders' Cup
preps.
Fresh off conquering a
champion, #4 Raging Sea looms as an
overwhelming favorite while facing five rivals in Sunday's $250,000 Beldame
(G2) at Aqueduct's "Belmont at the Big A" meet. Sure, she received a fantastic pace
setup in the Personal Ensign and is unlikely to get as lucky in the Beldame.
But Raging Sea isn't a pace-dependent deep closer who needs a perfect setup to
shine. She'd won four of her five starts leading up to the Personal Ensign,
with her lone defeat being a fourth-place finish against Randomized and
Idiomatic in the Ogden Phipps.
Those four wins included
triumphs in the Comely (G3), Doubledogdare (G3), and Shuvee (G2). Raging Sea
didn't receive especially favorable pace setups in any of those races, so
instead she stayed within 1 1/2 to three lengths of the lead and kicked on down
the stretch to beat quality rivals like Scylla, Julia Shining, Honor D Lady,
Hidden Connection, and Shotgun Hottie. Raging Sea is the only graded stakes
winner in the Beldame field and shouldn't have much difficulty adding another
graded score to her accomplished record.
As for #1 Idiomatic (3-5), she's the heavy morning line favorite to win
Sunday's $600,000 Spinster (G1) at Keeneland for the second straight year. Last
year, she wired the Spinster by 4 1/4 lengths, which marked the fourth of her
five consecutive graded stakes wins to wrap up 2023.
A case can be made that
Idiomatic is a step or two slower this year, since she's lost two of her four
2024 starts. But it's just as easy to argue Idiomatic is the victim of unlucky trips
against formidable rivals. Her Personal Ensign defeat can be attributed to the
intense duel with Randomized, and as mentioned previously she suffered a poor
break and a wide trip when narrowly beaten in the Ogden Phipps. In between
those defeats, Idiomatic defeated Soul of an Angel by a head in the Molly
Pitcher (G3), and she opened 2024 with a resounding 3 3/4-length score in the
La Troienne (G1).
In any case, the Spinster
field hasn't come up as tough as the Personal Ensign or Ogden Phipps, so
Idiomatic has a clear path to victory. Delaware H. (G2) winner #4 Honor D Lady (4-1) and recent
Alabama (G1) runner-up #2 Candied (9-2)
are capable fillies, but they aren't quite at Idiomatic's level in terms of
Beyer Speed Figures and Brisnet Speed ratings. Throw in the fact there isn't a
ton of pace in this six-horse Spinster field, and the stage is set for
Idiomatic to lead all the way from her rail draw and pick up the fifth Grade 1
win of her career.
Granted, there isn't much
creativity in picking Raging Sea and Idiomatic to win this weekend. But if the
goal of Unlocking Winners is to unlock winners, one would be hard-pressed to
identify a pair of more likely stakes winners on this busy Breeders' Cup prep
weekend.
Let's add one more likely
winner to the mix and try to go 3-for-3 with this week's selections. In Saturday's
$100,000 Chillingworth (G3) for fillies and mares sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs on
dirt at Santa Anita, I'm confident four-year-old #3 Sweet Azteca (3-5) will take home top honors over the
up-and-coming three-year-olds #5 One
Magic Philly (5-1) and #2 Hope Road (4-1).
One Magic Philly and Hope
Road enter off impressive victories, but in terms of Beyer Speed Figures they have
form to find against Sweet Azteca, who has posted triple-digit numbers in three
consecutive graded stakes. She threw down a 103 when beating multiple Grade 1
winner Adare Manor in the Beholder Mile (G1). She posted a 106 when dominating
the 6 1/2-furlong Great Lady M (G2) in track-record time. And she ran a 107
when taking the 6 1/2-furlong Rancho Bernardo H. (G3) by seven easy lengths.
Sweet Azteca has posted
sharp workouts since the Rancho Bernardo, including a swift five furlongs in
:59 4/5, and may simply be too fast for her younger rivals at this point in
time.
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like this week?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
