By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
Three weeks out from the
Breeders' Cup, there isn't a whole lot of graded stakes action taking place in
North America. But Keeneland does have one major highlight for us: Saturday's
$750,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1), which has drawn a strong field
of 10 three-year-old fillies to race 1 1/8 miles on turf.
Historically, fillies based
in North America have dominated the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup. Every
winner from 1998 through 2022 (a span of 25 years) exited a race in North
America. But that trend was broken last year by Mawj, who shipped in from
England off a win in the historic 1000 Guineas (G1) five months prior. And I
believe we'll see another European take home first prize in the 2024 Queen
Elizabeth II Challenge Cup.
There are two international
raiders to choose from, and both bring compelling credentials to the table. One
is #10 Candala (9-2), a French-bred
filly who has shown respectable form against quality competition. During the
spring she won the Prix de la Grotte (G3) racing 1,600 meters (about one mile),
and last time out she finished third by 2 1/2 lengths in the 2,000-meter (about
1 1/4-mile) Prix Alec Head (G2). The winner, Friendly Soul, flattered the form
by returning to win the Prix de l'Opera (G1) last Sunday.
However, a case can be made
that Candala is at her best running 2,000 meters or father; in addition to her
fine Prix Alec Head effort, she owns a third-place finish by two lengths in the
2,400-meter (about 1 1/2-mile) Prix de Malleret (G2). Furthermore, both of
Candala's career wins have come over very soft ground, and the firmest ground
she's tackled has been labeled good-to-soft. With dry weather in the forecast
for Keeneland, the turf is likely to be firm for the Queen Elizabeth II
Challenge Cup, and Candala isn't guaranteed to relish the conditions.
That's why I prefer the
chances of the other European challenger, #5
Soprano (7-2). She's repeatedly knocked heads with fierce competition in
sprints and miles and has done so over a variety of turf conditions, including
good-to-firm.
Soprano has a lot of strong
showings on her record. Last year, for example, she finished second in the
Sweet Solera (G3) to future Irish classic winner and multiple Group 1 winner
Fallen Angel, and also third to four-time Group 1 winner Porta Fortuna in the
Albany (G3) at Royal Ascot. This year, Soprano returned to Royal Ascot to win
the one-mile Sandringham over good-to-firm turf, and during the summer she ran
fourth by 3 1/2 lengths to Friendly Soul in the Valiant (G3).
But Soprano's latest effort
is why I'm excited to back her in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup.
Stepping up in class for the one-mile Matron (G1) at Leopardstown, she finished
third, beaten 1 1/2 lengths by Porta Fortuna and half a length by Fallen Angel.
That was an excellent showing against elite rivals, and I expect Soprano will
find the competition a bit easier in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup.
One potential chink in
Soprano's armor is the fact she's yet to run farther than one mile, but I don't
see this being an issue. It's common for European horses to shine running a
little longer in North American than in Europe, as the speed they show over
shorter trips often translates well to running longer over tight-turning North
American courses. Mawj had no experience racing farther than one mile in Europe,
but that didn't stop her from successfully stretching out in last year's Queen
Elizabeth II Challenge Cup.
So there you have it:
Soprano is my top pick to win the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup. For second
place, I'll side with #6 Oversubscribed (6-1),
my top choice among the American fillies. Trained by Chad Brown, who has won
this race five times, Oversubscribed was a dominant winner of the one-mile Wild
Applause S. early in the summer at Aqueduct, charging from far behind two
dueling leaders to win by 3 1/4 lengths. According to the Equibase GPS result
chart, Oversubscribed ran her final quarter-mile in a quick :23.14.
Oversubscribed subsequently
endured a troubled trip in the one-mile Lake George (G3) at Saratoga. She was
buried behind rivals down the homestretch and never had much racing room. Even
still, she charged home between horses to finish second by three-quarters of a
length while running her final quarter-mile in :22.94.
Selections
1st: Soprano
2nd: Oversubscribed
3rd: Candala
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.