Picking a European Raider in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup

By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman

Three weeks out from the Breeders' Cup, there isn't a whole lot of graded stakes action taking place in North America. But Keeneland does have one major highlight for us: Saturday's $750,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1), which has drawn a strong field of 10 three-year-old fillies to race 1 1/8 miles on turf.

Historically, fillies based in North America have dominated the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup. Every winner from 1998 through 2022 (a span of 25 years) exited a race in North America. But that trend was broken last year by Mawj, who shipped in from England off a win in the historic 1000 Guineas (G1) five months prior. And I believe we'll see another European take home first prize in the 2024 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup.

There are two international raiders to choose from, and both bring compelling credentials to the table. One is #10 Candala (9-2), a French-bred filly who has shown respectable form against quality competition. During the spring she won the Prix de la Grotte (G3) racing 1,600 meters (about one mile), and last time out she finished third by 2 1/2 lengths in the 2,000-meter (about 1 1/4-mile) Prix Alec Head (G2). The winner, Friendly Soul, flattered the form by returning to win the Prix de l'Opera (G1) last Sunday.

However, a case can be made that Candala is at her best running 2,000 meters or father; in addition to her fine Prix Alec Head effort, she owns a third-place finish by two lengths in the 2,400-meter (about 1 1/2-mile) Prix de Malleret (G2). Furthermore, both of Candala's career wins have come over very soft ground, and the firmest ground she's tackled has been labeled good-to-soft. With dry weather in the forecast for Keeneland, the turf is likely to be firm for the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup, and Candala isn't guaranteed to relish the conditions.

That's why I prefer the chances of the other European challenger, #5 Soprano (7-2). She's repeatedly knocked heads with fierce competition in sprints and miles and has done so over a variety of turf conditions, including good-to-firm.

Soprano has a lot of strong showings on her record. Last year, for example, she finished second in the Sweet Solera (G3) to future Irish classic winner and multiple Group 1 winner Fallen Angel, and also third to four-time Group 1 winner Porta Fortuna in the Albany (G3) at Royal Ascot. This year, Soprano returned to Royal Ascot to win the one-mile Sandringham over good-to-firm turf, and during the summer she ran fourth by 3 1/2 lengths to Friendly Soul in the Valiant (G3).

But Soprano's latest effort is why I'm excited to back her in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup. Stepping up in class for the one-mile Matron (G1) at Leopardstown, she finished third, beaten 1 1/2 lengths by Porta Fortuna and half a length by Fallen Angel. That was an excellent showing against elite rivals, and I expect Soprano will find the competition a bit easier in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup.

One potential chink in Soprano's armor is the fact she's yet to run farther than one mile, but I don't see this being an issue. It's common for European horses to shine running a little longer in North American than in Europe, as the speed they show over shorter trips often translates well to running longer over tight-turning North American courses. Mawj had no experience racing farther than one mile in Europe, but that didn't stop her from successfully stretching out in last year's Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup.

So there you have it: Soprano is my top pick to win the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup. For second place, I'll side with #6 Oversubscribed (6-1), my top choice among the American fillies. Trained by Chad Brown, who has won this race five times, Oversubscribed was a dominant winner of the one-mile Wild Applause S. early in the summer at Aqueduct, charging from far behind two dueling leaders to win by 3 1/4 lengths. According to the Equibase GPS result chart, Oversubscribed ran her final quarter-mile in a quick :23.14.

Oversubscribed subsequently endured a troubled trip in the one-mile Lake George (G3) at Saratoga. She was buried behind rivals down the homestretch and never had much racing room. Even still, she charged home between horses to finish second by three-quarters of a length while running her final quarter-mile in :22.94.

Selections

1st: Soprano
2nd: Oversubscribed
3rd: Candala

Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup?

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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.

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