By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
The Breeders' Cup Classic
(G1) and Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1) are two of the most important Breeders' Cup
events. They frequently producing thrilling results and regularly determine
year-end champions.
Strong fields are expected
to enter the 2024 Classic and Distaff. But we aren't guaranteed to see
short-priced winners just because quality runs deep.
The prospective Classic
field is packed with elite runners from around the globe, but you know what? I
believe Next has a real shot to
upset the Classic if he opts for this race rather than the Breeders' Cup Turf
(G1).
Next is an utterly
sensational long-distance dirt racer. Since stretching out over distances from
1 3/8 miles to 1 3/4 miles, he's won nine out of ten starts, all against stakes
competition. Six of his wins have come by double-digit margins, including a
25-length drubbing of the 2023 Greenwood Cup (G3).
Granted, Next is accustomed
to setting or pressing the slow paces common in dirt marathons, and the Classic
is likely to unfold with a much faster pace. But I'm not convinced a quicker
tempo will derail Next. The abundant stamina he's shown winning back-to-back
editions of the 1 3/4-mile Birdstone S. by double-digit margins may serve him
well, allowing him to partake in a faster pace and still have enough energy for
the Breeders' Cup Classic homestretch.
It's worth noting Next has
consistently shown fast finishing speed at the end of his marathons. Rather
than tiring, he's routinely accelerating at the finish. In the 1 1/2-mile
Greenwood Cup last time out, Next ran his final quarter-mile in :24.58, the
fastest quarter in the entire race, to win by 10 lengths. In the Birdstone, he
ran the penultimate quarter-mile in :23.89 to blow the race apart on his way to
victory by 22 1/4 lengths.
Most importantly, in the 1
3/8-mile Brooklyn (G2) running only a furlong farther than the Classic
distance, Next ran his fourth quarter-mile in :23.82, his fifth quarter-mile in
approximately the same, and his final furlong in a stellar :11.89 to defeat
Suburban (G2) winner Crupi by 9 1/4 lengths.
If Next can run the final
quarter-mile of the Breeders' Cup Classic in anything close to :24 seconds,
he'll be a serious danger down the homestretch. Dismiss this brilliant stayer
at your own risk.
As for the Breeders' Cup
Distaff, many bettors figure to view the race as a battle between defending
winner Idiomatic and the sensational three-year-old filly Thorpedo Anna, who
has won four Grade 1 races against her own age group this year. But it could be
a mistake to count Japanese raider Awesome
Result out of the mix.
A daughter of 2018 Triple
Crown winner Justify, Awesome Result is unbeaten in seven starts. She hasn't defeated
the toughest competition, but it's hard to argue with a perfect record.
Awesome Result prepped for
the Breeders' Cup with an eye-catching performance in the Breeders' Gold Cup
racing 2,000 meters (about 1 1/4 miles) in Japan. After racing outside in third
place for much of the journey, Awesome Result seized command around the final
turn and drew off with authority to beat a next-out winner by five lengths in
2:04, a respectable time given the generally slow nature of Japan's dirt
tracks.
Awesome Result has
consistently displayed strong finishing speed in route races and has won three
times over 1,800 meters (about 1 1/8 miles), similar in trip to the Distaff.
Idiomatic and Thorpedo Anna both run well up and on the pace, so if the two
favorites hook up too soon, I can envision Awesome Result closing into the duel
to spring a surprise. It wouldn't be the first time a Japanese raider has upset
the Distaff; Marche Lorraine pulled off a 49-1 shocker in the 2021 Distaff, one
race after winning the Breeders' Gold Cup with a time of 2:06.6. Comparing race
times between years can be risky, but on the whole Awesome Result brings better
form to the Breeders' Cup than Marche Lorraine, and she can't be dismissed as a
win threat.
Locks of the Week
Turning our attention away
from the Breeders' Cup, a couple of upcoming stakes races appear highly likely
to produce short-priced winners.
The first is Friday's
$145,000 Oklahoma Classics Distaff H. at Remington Park. The one-mile and
70-yard contest for Oklahoma-bred fillies and mares has drawn only six entries,
and it's hard to look past #6 Miss Code
West (3-5) as a standout favorite.
Miss Code West has been
pretty much unstoppable at Remington Park, recording five wins and a second
from six starts. Against Oklahoma-breds, she's a perfect 4-for-4, counting wins
in the Oklahoma Classics Lassie S., Slide Show S., and Oklahoma Stallion
Fillies H. on her record.
Miss Code West has also been
effective against non-state-restricted competition. She won the one-mile
Trapeze S. at Remington Park last year, and last time out she ran second in the
1 1/16-mile Remington Park Oaks. Dropping back into the Oklahoma-bred ranks on
Friday should send Miss Code West back to the winner's circle under hot jockey
Floyd Wethey Jr., a 20% winner at Remington Park this meet.
An even more likely winner
can be found on Saturday at Gulfstream Park. The seven-furlong $200,000 FTBOA
Florida Sire Affirmed S. has drawn half a dozen Florida Sire Stakes-registered
colts and geldings, including #2 Rated
by Merit, who may have enough talent to make noise on the Road to the
Kentucky Derby this winter.
Rated by Merit hasn't been
challenged in two starts sprinting six furlongs at Gulfstream Park. He debuted
in a non-state-restricted maiden special weight and led all the way to defeat
next-out winner Forged Steel by 9 3/4 lengths in the snappy time of 1:10.50,
earning a 92 Beyer Speed Figure. He ran even faster in the FTBOA Florida Sire
Dr. Fager S. last month, tracking a fast pace before taking over to win by 6
1/4 lengths in 1:09.45, earning a 93 Beyer.
As of this writing, Rated by
Merit owns two of the seven highest Beyers posted by two-year-olds this year.
None of his Affirmed rivals can boast similar numbers, and Rated by Merit has
already beaten three of them, so the stage is set for Rated by Merit to record
another decisive victory.
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like this week, and in the Breeders' Cup?
*****
Want to test your handicapping skills against fellow Unlocking Winners readers? Check out the Unlocking Winners contest page—there's a new challenge every week! (Please note: older contest entries can be found here.)
J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
