By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
The wait is nearly over. On Nov. 1-2 at Del Mar, elite
racehorses from around the globe will square off in 14 races at the Breeders'
Cup World Championships.
Which horses will visit the winner's circle at
California's famous seaside racetrack? Opinions vary, but here's how I see each
Breeders' Cup race unfolding:
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint
Top
Selection: Japanese raider #8 Ecoro Sieg (7-2) is unbeaten in two starts and set blazing
fractions of :21.8 and :43.8 when winning the Canna S. in the time of 1:07.2
for 1,200 meters (about six furlongs), breaking a 23-year-old juvenile course
record. Speed horses excel in the Juvenile Turf Sprint, and I'm willing to bet
Ecoro Sieg is the "speed of the speed" in this contest. I believe he'll lead
all the way.
Second
Choice: #9 Shareholder (12-1) faltered when last seen in the Prix
Morny (G1), finishing last of nine over good-to-soft turf. But he opened his
career with back-to-back wins over good-to-firm turf, including a triumph in
the five-furlong Norfolk (G2) at Royal Ascot. The Norfolk fourth-place finish, #7 Whistlejacket (5-1), returned to win
the Prix Morny and place in two other Group 1 prizes, so returning to firm turf
might be all Shareholder needs to be competitive against top-tier competition.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies
Top
Selection: #9 American Bikini (5-1) has shown immense
talent in Japan, most notably conquering males by 2 1/2 lengths in the
Yamaboshi Sho allowance. She's set or equaled two juvenile track records and
brings plenty of early speed to the table, giving her options for working out a
favorable trip. American Bikini may be the most talented two-year-old from
Japan to compete in the Breeders' Cup thus far, so if her 5-1 morning line odds
hold up, I'll be eager to play her.
Second
Choice: #10 Scottish Lassie (5-2) was tons the best in
the Frizette (G1), romping home by nine lengths with a 90 Beyer Speed Figure
that tops this Breeders' Cup field. Seven of the last 13 Juvenile Fillies
winners prepped in the Frizette, and Scottish Lassie is a serious threat to
American Bikini. Choosing between them is almost a coin flip.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
Top
Selection: Two years ago, trainer Aidan O'Brien won this
race with Meditate, runner-up in the Moyglare Stud (G1) and Chevely Park (G1).
Now O'Brien is bringing #1 Lake Victoria
(8-5), whose unblemished 4-for-4 record includes wins in those two Group 1
prizes. Lake Victoria looks like a class standout in the Juvenile Fillies Turf,
so I hope to see her save ground under Ryan Moore, find an opening in the
homestretch, and burst through to keep her unbeaten record intact.
Second
Choice: #12 May Day Ready (20-1) might be the best of the American
fillies. She's 3-for-3 and exits a rallying triumph in the Jessamine (G2), a
pivotal steppingstone to the Juvenile Fillies Turf. That victory came at the
expense of #5 Totally Justified (20-1),
who had previously won the P. G. Johnson S. at Saratoga. May Day Ready figures
to be closing hard late under internationally renowned jockey Frankie Dettori.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile
Top
Selection: #6 Citizen Bull (10-1) has improved steadily for
five-time Juvenile-winning trainer Bob Baffert. Along the way he's shown a
variety of running styles. He wired the American Pharoah (G1) in a solid time
last month and has cranked out blazing workouts since then, so I expect this
well-bred son of Into Mischief to move forward again on Friday. I hope his
enticing 10-1 morning line odds hold up.
Second
Choice: #1 East Avenue (5-2) was breathtaking in the Breeders'
Futurity (G1), leading all the way to beat Hopeful (G1) runner-up #4 Ferocious (6-1) by 5 1/4 lengths.
But East Avenue benefited from racing over a strongly inside-biased track, so
it could be tricky to replicate that performance over a (presumably) fair track
at Del Mar.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf
Top
Selection: Aidan O'Brien and Ryan Moore have teamed up
to win the Juvenile Turf seven times. They can pick up an eighth with #13 Henri Matisse (6-1). If you draw a
line through his fifth-place finish over soft turf in the Prix Jean-Luc
Lagardere (G1), it's hard to knock his form. Two starts back he ran second by
three-quarters of a length in the seven-furlong Vincent O'Brien National (G1)
at the Curragh. The ability Henri Matisse has shown sprinting should serve him
well over a two-turn mile at Del Mar, and I'm optimistic Moore can work out a
winning trip from post 13—nine years ago, he guided Hit It a Bomb to win this
race from post 14.
Second
Choice: Trainer Charlie Appleby has won this race three times.
He's entered two horses this year, with his go-to jockey William Buick named to
ride #12 Aomori City (10-1). Winner
of the Vintage (G2) over a turning course at Goodwood, Aomori City ran fourth
(three lengths behind Henri Matisse) in the Vincent O'Brien National, but has
been freshened since then and may be capable of turning the tables over a much
different course configuration at Del Mar.
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint
Top
Selection: #8 Soul of an Angel (12-1) is a capable two-turn
performer; in the Molly Pitcher (G3), she came within a head of upsetting
champion Idiomatic. But she's been a beast around one turn this year,
conquering multiple Grade 1 winner Randomized by daylight in the one-mile
Ruffian (G2) and surging to win the seven-furlong Princess Rooney (G3) by 3 1/4
lengths. After repeatedly knocking heads with Randomized, Idiomatic, and Raging
Sea this year, I believe Soul of an Angel will find the competition a bit
easier in the Filly & Mare Sprint and rally to victory through the final
furlong.
Second
Choice: Three-year-old #9
Ways and Means (5-2) has been unstoppable since cutting back to one mile or
less. She beat multiple graded stakes winner Emery by 2 1/2 lengths in the Test
(G1), then conquered older rivals by four lengths in the Gallant Bloom (G2).
Another strong showing should be in the offing at Del Mar.
Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint
Top
Selection: #9 Cogburn (7-5) has been a beast this year,
posting decisive wins in the Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G1), Jaipur (G1), and
Ainsworth Turf Sprint (G2). In the Jaipur, Cogburn beat a strong field by 3 1/2
lengths in the North American record time of :59.80 for 5 1/2 furlongs. With
Beyer Speed Figures of 114, 107, and 107 under his belt this season, Cogburn is
the best turf sprinter in North America and hands-down the horse to beat at the
Breeders' Cup.
Second
Choice: #1 Believing (12-1) has finished behind #12 Bradsell (7-2) in all three of
their meetings this year, but never by more than 1 1/4 lengths. The
four-year-old filly has placed in three straight Group 1 sprints and may be
able to turn the tables on Bradsell while breaking from the rail; he's marooned
in the far outside post and risks a wide trip. In any case, her 12-1 odds seem
too high.
Breeders' Cup Distaff
Top
Selection: #9 Awesome Result (4-1) hasn't tasted defeat
from seven starts in Japan, most notably winning the Breeders' Gold Cup by five
lengths in 2:04.0 for 2,000 meters (about 1 1/4 miles), a solid time over one
of Japan's slow dirt tracks. 2021 Distaff winner Marche Lorraine required
2:06.6 to win the same race by a much smaller margin. Awesome Result looms as a
formidable win threat while making her U.S. debut under legendary jockey Yutaka
Take.
Second
Choice: #2 Thorpedo Anna (4-5) has been sensational this year,
winning the Kentucky Oaks (G1), Acorn (G1), Coaching Club American Oaks (G1),
Cotillion (G1), and Fantasy (G2) against fellow three-year-old fillies. She
also ran a giant race against males in the Travers (G1), coming within a head
of beating champion Fierceness. But Thorpedo Anna performed below expectations
in the Cotillion, running slower than usual while battling to victory by a
neck. There's at least a small chance she's starting to regress at the end of
an action-packed season, opening the door for Awesome Result to surprise.
Breeders' Cup Turf
Top
Selection: #11 Rebel's Romance (5-2) won this race two
years ago at the conclusion of a 5-for-5 campaign featuring two Group 1 wins in
Germany. This year, he's in even stronger form. The Charlie Appleby trainee is
4-for-5 with three Group 1 wins under his belt in Germany, Hong Kong, and
Dubai. His lone defeat came when third in England's prestigious King George VI
and Queen Elizabeth (G1) to the talented Goliath and future Prix de l'Arc de
Triomphe (G1) winner Bluestocking. Appleby boasts a 10-for-20 (50%) record at
the Breeders' Cup, and eight of his winners have been guided by William Buick,
who retains the mount on Rebel's Romance. The stage is set for Rebel's Romance
to regain his Turf title.
Second
Choice: Three-year-old #5
Jayarebe (4-1) is trained by Brian Meehan, who has saddled only two horses
in past editions of the Turf: Dangerous Midge (first in 2010) and Red Rocks
(first in 2006, third in 2007, and fifth in 2009). When Meehan sends a Turf
starter, it's wise to take notice. Jayarebe has yet to run farther than 1 1/4
miles, but he's won the Prix Dollar (G2) and Hampton Court (G3) this season,
and he also finished second in the Prix Guillaume d'Ornano (G2) to Economics,
who returned to beat 2023 Breeders' Cup Turf champ Auguste Rodin in the Irish
Champion (G1). Form lines suggest Jayarebe has the talent to challenge even
while stretching out over 1 1/2 miles.
Breeders' Cup Classic
Top
Selection: I feel like a case can be made for at least
half a dozen horses to win this ultra-competitive renewal of the Classic. One
of them is #14 Next (8-1), the dirt
marathon specialist who has won nine of his last 10 starts in spectacular
fashion. He's 4-for-4 this year and ran one of his best races in the 1 3/8-mile
Brooklyn (G2), blazing his final three furlongs in about :35.71 to trounce
Suburban (G2) winner Crupi by 9 1/4 lengths. I don't envision the Classic
unfolding at a blazing tempo, so I believe Next can sit a comfortable
pace-tracking trip even while cutting back to 1 1/4 miles. If he can reproduce
the same finishing turn-of-foot that he's consistently shown over marathon
trips, Next can kick away from his Classic rivals and spring an 8-1 surprise.
Second
Choice: #12 Arthur's Ride (15-1) isn't the most consistent horse;
he's misfired twice this year, including in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) last
time out. But he's been freshened over the past two months, and on his best day
he's fast enough to win the Classic. He threw down a 110 Beyer when wiring the
Whitney (G1) by 2 1/4 lengths, and during the spring he trounced a 1 1/4-mile
allowance optional claimer at Saratoga with a 111 Beyer. Perhaps if Arthur's
Ride can shake loose on a relatively easy lead in the Classic, he can recapture
that form and outrun his 15-1 morning line odds.
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf
Top
Selection: #10 Moira (8-1) finished third by 1 1/4 lengths in this
race last year, beaten only by elite European raiders Inspiral and Warm Heart.
None of this year's overseas raiders appear to be at quite the same level as
those two, so Moira has an opportunity to steal the show for North America.
From three starts this season, Moira has won the Beverly D. (G2) and finished
second under challenging circumstances in two Grade 1 stakes. In the Diana
(G1), she was compromised by a pedestrian pace, but nevertheless rallied to
miss victory by only three-quarters of a length. In the E. P. Taylor (G1), she
rated too far behind a runaway leader and couldn't quite catch up, even while
running her final two quarter-miles in :22.21 and :22.80. With a better setup
in this large Filly & Mare Turf field, Moira can finally secure her first
Grade 1 win.
Second
Choice: #4 War Like Goddess (5-2) has possibly lost a
step this year, but it's hard to say for certain, because the seven-year-old
veteran has routinely faced slow paces detrimental to her stretch-running
style. She got a bit more pace to chase when facing males in the Joe Hirsch Turf
Classic (G1) last month and finished second by half a length, so if she
encounters a fair tempo in the Filly & Mare Turf, War Like Goddess figures
to be gobbling up ground down the homestretch. She lost this race by less than
one length back in 2021.
I'll also mention #2
Full Count Felicia (12-1) as a must-use live longshot. The gate-to-wire E.
P. Taylor winner has never run 1 3/8 miles, but may shake loose on an
uncontested lead under five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. If
she does, Full Count Felicia may forget to stop in the homestretch.
Breeders' Cup Sprint
Top
Selection: There's a ton of speed in this field, which
could compromise morning line favorite #3 Federal Judge (3-1), who benefited
from an inside bias when wiring the Phoenix (G2) in a fast time last month. If
a blazing pace unfolds, it should suit #4
Nakatomi (6-1), who ran third by two lengths in the 2023 Breeders' Cup
Sprint while facing Elite Power and Gunite. I'm not sure there are any horses
as good as those two in this year's Sprint field, so Nakatomi may have an
easier time in his second Breeders' Cup appearance. He ran against the bias
when second to Federal Judge in the Phoenix and previously won the Alfred G.
Vanderbilt H. (G1) during the summer at Saratoga, so look for Nakatomi to close
ground strongly down the Del Mar homestretch.
Second
Choice: Another horse who figures to benefit from a hot pace is #9 Remake (8-1), the stretch-running
Japanese sprinter who boasts wins in the Riyadh Dirt Sprint (G3) and Korea
Sprint (G3) this year. Back in 2023, he ran third to Elite Power and Gunite in
the Riyadh Dirt Sprint, so form lines suggest this globetrotting five-year-old
has the talent to factor in the Breeders' Cup Sprint.
Breeders' Cup Mile
Top
Selection: A strong field of Europeans has turned out
for the Mile, and I narrowly prefer Charlie Appleby's three-year-old #6 Notable Speech (7-2). He faltered
over soft ground in the Prix du Moulin de Longchamp (G1) last time out, but
over drier ground the Godolphin homebred has been excellent. During the spring
he won England's historic 2000 Guineas (G1) over good ground, and when tackling
good-to-firm turf in the Sussex (G1) he conquered older rivals by 1 1/2
lengths. William Buick retains the mount as he and Appleby seek to win the Mile
for the fourth straight year.
Second
Choice: #7 Porta Fortuna (4-1) finished second by half a length
in the 2023 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) and has since developed
into one of Europe's top milers. A neck defeat in the 1000 Guineas (G1)
preceded wins in the Coronation (G1), Falmouth (G1), and Matron (G1), so this
classy sophomore filly is a formidable win threat while returning to North
America.
Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
Top
Selection: There's a ton of speed in this field, so why
not support stretch-running #8 Post Time
(12-1) at a price? He was in hot form during the winter and spring, winning
four straight races including the General George (G3) and Carter (G2). Then,
during the spring, he held his own against top-tier competition when second in
the Metropolitan H. (G1) and third (beaten only 2 1/2 lengths) in the Whitney
(G1). Post Time remains in strong form, having trounced the one-mile Polynesian
S. at Laurel Park last month by 11 1/2 lengths, and the Dirt Mile is arguably
an easier spot than the Metropolitan or Whitney. At 12-1, Post Time is worth a
long look.
Second
Choice: #9 Domestic Product (7-2) has been riding a hot
streak since cutting back to one mile or less, dominating the Dwyer (G3) by 7
1/2 lengths before beating a deep field in the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial (G1).
Stepping up against older rivals is a new challenge, and I'm not sure Domestic
Product is quite as effective around two turns as he is around one turn. But he
did win the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) around two turns during the spring, and a
blazing pace would play to the strengths of this stretch-running sophomore.
Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the 14 Breeders' Cup races?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
