Keeler Johnson’s 2024 Breeders’ Cup Selections

By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman

The wait is nearly over. On Nov. 1-2 at Del Mar, elite racehorses from around the globe will square off in 14 races at the Breeders' Cup World Championships.

Which horses will visit the winner's circle at California's famous seaside racetrack? Opinions vary, but here's how I see each Breeders' Cup race unfolding:

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint

Top Selection: Japanese raider #8 Ecoro Sieg (7-2) is unbeaten in two starts and set blazing fractions of :21.8 and :43.8 when winning the Canna S. in the time of 1:07.2 for 1,200 meters (about six furlongs), breaking a 23-year-old juvenile course record. Speed horses excel in the Juvenile Turf Sprint, and I'm willing to bet Ecoro Sieg is the "speed of the speed" in this contest. I believe he'll lead all the way.

Second Choice: #9 Shareholder (12-1) faltered when last seen in the Prix Morny (G1), finishing last of nine over good-to-soft turf. But he opened his career with back-to-back wins over good-to-firm turf, including a triumph in the five-furlong Norfolk (G2) at Royal Ascot. The Norfolk fourth-place finish, #7 Whistlejacket (5-1), returned to win the Prix Morny and place in two other Group 1 prizes, so returning to firm turf might be all Shareholder needs to be competitive against top-tier competition.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies

Top Selection: #9 American Bikini (5-1) has shown immense talent in Japan, most notably conquering males by 2 1/2 lengths in the Yamaboshi Sho allowance. She's set or equaled two juvenile track records and brings plenty of early speed to the table, giving her options for working out a favorable trip. American Bikini may be the most talented two-year-old from Japan to compete in the Breeders' Cup thus far, so if her 5-1 morning line odds hold up, I'll be eager to play her.

Second Choice: #10 Scottish Lassie (5-2) was tons the best in the Frizette (G1), romping home by nine lengths with a 90 Beyer Speed Figure that tops this Breeders' Cup field. Seven of the last 13 Juvenile Fillies winners prepped in the Frizette, and Scottish Lassie is a serious threat to American Bikini. Choosing between them is almost a coin flip.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

Top Selection: Two years ago, trainer Aidan O'Brien won this race with Meditate, runner-up in the Moyglare Stud (G1) and Chevely Park (G1). Now O'Brien is bringing #1 Lake Victoria (8-5), whose unblemished 4-for-4 record includes wins in those two Group 1 prizes. Lake Victoria looks like a class standout in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, so I hope to see her save ground under Ryan Moore, find an opening in the homestretch, and burst through to keep her unbeaten record intact.

Second Choice: #12 May Day Ready (20-1) might be the best of the American fillies. She's 3-for-3 and exits a rallying triumph in the Jessamine (G2), a pivotal steppingstone to the Juvenile Fillies Turf. That victory came at the expense of #5 Totally Justified (20-1), who had previously won the P. G. Johnson S. at Saratoga. May Day Ready figures to be closing hard late under internationally renowned jockey Frankie Dettori.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile

Top Selection: #6 Citizen Bull (10-1) has improved steadily for five-time Juvenile-winning trainer Bob Baffert. Along the way he's shown a variety of running styles. He wired the American Pharoah (G1) in a solid time last month and has cranked out blazing workouts since then, so I expect this well-bred son of Into Mischief to move forward again on Friday. I hope his enticing 10-1 morning line odds hold up.

Second Choice: #1 East Avenue (5-2) was breathtaking in the Breeders' Futurity (G1), leading all the way to beat Hopeful (G1) runner-up #4 Ferocious (6-1) by 5 1/4 lengths. But East Avenue benefited from racing over a strongly inside-biased track, so it could be tricky to replicate that performance over a (presumably) fair track at Del Mar.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf

Top Selection: Aidan O'Brien and Ryan Moore have teamed up to win the Juvenile Turf seven times. They can pick up an eighth with #13 Henri Matisse (6-1). If you draw a line through his fifth-place finish over soft turf in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (G1), it's hard to knock his form. Two starts back he ran second by three-quarters of a length in the seven-furlong Vincent O'Brien National (G1) at the Curragh. The ability Henri Matisse has shown sprinting should serve him well over a two-turn mile at Del Mar, and I'm optimistic Moore can work out a winning trip from post 13—nine years ago, he guided Hit It a Bomb to win this race from post 14.

Second Choice: Trainer Charlie Appleby has won this race three times. He's entered two horses this year, with his go-to jockey William Buick named to ride #12 Aomori City (10-1). Winner of the Vintage (G2) over a turning course at Goodwood, Aomori City ran fourth (three lengths behind Henri Matisse) in the Vincent O'Brien National, but has been freshened since then and may be capable of turning the tables over a much different course configuration at Del Mar.

Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint

Top Selection: #8 Soul of an Angel (12-1) is a capable two-turn performer; in the Molly Pitcher (G3), she came within a head of upsetting champion Idiomatic. But she's been a beast around one turn this year, conquering multiple Grade 1 winner Randomized by daylight in the one-mile Ruffian (G2) and surging to win the seven-furlong Princess Rooney (G3) by 3 1/4 lengths. After repeatedly knocking heads with Randomized, Idiomatic, and Raging Sea this year, I believe Soul of an Angel will find the competition a bit easier in the Filly & Mare Sprint and rally to victory through the final furlong.

Second Choice: Three-year-old #9 Ways and Means (5-2) has been unstoppable since cutting back to one mile or less. She beat multiple graded stakes winner Emery by 2 1/2 lengths in the Test (G1), then conquered older rivals by four lengths in the Gallant Bloom (G2). Another strong showing should be in the offing at Del Mar.

Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint

Top Selection: #9 Cogburn (7-5) has been a beast this year, posting decisive wins in the Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G1), Jaipur (G1), and Ainsworth Turf Sprint (G2). In the Jaipur, Cogburn beat a strong field by 3 1/2 lengths in the North American record time of :59.80 for 5 1/2 furlongs. With Beyer Speed Figures of 114, 107, and 107 under his belt this season, Cogburn is the best turf sprinter in North America and hands-down the horse to beat at the Breeders' Cup.

Second Choice: #1 Believing (12-1) has finished behind #12 Bradsell (7-2) in all three of their meetings this year, but never by more than 1 1/4 lengths. The four-year-old filly has placed in three straight Group 1 sprints and may be able to turn the tables on Bradsell while breaking from the rail; he's marooned in the far outside post and risks a wide trip. In any case, her 12-1 odds seem too high.

Breeders' Cup Distaff

Top Selection: #9 Awesome Result (4-1) hasn't tasted defeat from seven starts in Japan, most notably winning the Breeders' Gold Cup by five lengths in 2:04.0 for 2,000 meters (about 1 1/4 miles), a solid time over one of Japan's slow dirt tracks. 2021 Distaff winner Marche Lorraine required 2:06.6 to win the same race by a much smaller margin. Awesome Result looms as a formidable win threat while making her U.S. debut under legendary jockey Yutaka Take.

Second Choice: #2 Thorpedo Anna (4-5) has been sensational this year, winning the Kentucky Oaks (G1), Acorn (G1), Coaching Club American Oaks (G1), Cotillion (G1), and Fantasy (G2) against fellow three-year-old fillies. She also ran a giant race against males in the Travers (G1), coming within a head of beating champion Fierceness. But Thorpedo Anna performed below expectations in the Cotillion, running slower than usual while battling to victory by a neck. There's at least a small chance she's starting to regress at the end of an action-packed season, opening the door for Awesome Result to surprise.

Breeders' Cup Turf

Top Selection: #11 Rebel's Romance (5-2) won this race two years ago at the conclusion of a 5-for-5 campaign featuring two Group 1 wins in Germany. This year, he's in even stronger form. The Charlie Appleby trainee is 4-for-5 with three Group 1 wins under his belt in Germany, Hong Kong, and Dubai. His lone defeat came when third in England's prestigious King George VI and Queen Elizabeth (G1) to the talented Goliath and future Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (G1) winner Bluestocking. Appleby boasts a 10-for-20 (50%) record at the Breeders' Cup, and eight of his winners have been guided by William Buick, who retains the mount on Rebel's Romance. The stage is set for Rebel's Romance to regain his Turf title.

Second Choice: Three-year-old #5 Jayarebe (4-1) is trained by Brian Meehan, who has saddled only two horses in past editions of the Turf: Dangerous Midge (first in 2010) and Red Rocks (first in 2006, third in 2007, and fifth in 2009). When Meehan sends a Turf starter, it's wise to take notice. Jayarebe has yet to run farther than 1 1/4 miles, but he's won the Prix Dollar (G2) and Hampton Court (G3) this season, and he also finished second in the Prix Guillaume d'Ornano (G2) to Economics, who returned to beat 2023 Breeders' Cup Turf champ Auguste Rodin in the Irish Champion (G1). Form lines suggest Jayarebe has the talent to challenge even while stretching out over 1 1/2 miles.

Breeders' Cup Classic

Top Selection: I feel like a case can be made for at least half a dozen horses to win this ultra-competitive renewal of the Classic. One of them is #14 Next (8-1), the dirt marathon specialist who has won nine of his last 10 starts in spectacular fashion. He's 4-for-4 this year and ran one of his best races in the 1 3/8-mile Brooklyn (G2), blazing his final three furlongs in about :35.71 to trounce Suburban (G2) winner Crupi by 9 1/4 lengths. I don't envision the Classic unfolding at a blazing tempo, so I believe Next can sit a comfortable pace-tracking trip even while cutting back to 1 1/4 miles. If he can reproduce the same finishing turn-of-foot that he's consistently shown over marathon trips, Next can kick away from his Classic rivals and spring an 8-1 surprise.

Second Choice: #12 Arthur's Ride (15-1) isn't the most consistent horse; he's misfired twice this year, including in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) last time out. But he's been freshened over the past two months, and on his best day he's fast enough to win the Classic. He threw down a 110 Beyer when wiring the Whitney (G1) by 2 1/4 lengths, and during the spring he trounced a 1 1/4-mile allowance optional claimer at Saratoga with a 111 Beyer. Perhaps if Arthur's Ride can shake loose on a relatively easy lead in the Classic, he can recapture that form and outrun his 15-1 morning line odds.

Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf

Top Selection: #10 Moira (8-1) finished third by 1 1/4 lengths in this race last year, beaten only by elite European raiders Inspiral and Warm Heart. None of this year's overseas raiders appear to be at quite the same level as those two, so Moira has an opportunity to steal the show for North America. From three starts this season, Moira has won the Beverly D. (G2) and finished second under challenging circumstances in two Grade 1 stakes. In the Diana (G1), she was compromised by a pedestrian pace, but nevertheless rallied to miss victory by only three-quarters of a length. In the E. P. Taylor (G1), she rated too far behind a runaway leader and couldn't quite catch up, even while running her final two quarter-miles in :22.21 and :22.80. With a better setup in this large Filly & Mare Turf field, Moira can finally secure her first Grade 1 win.

Second Choice: #4 War Like Goddess (5-2) has possibly lost a step this year, but it's hard to say for certain, because the seven-year-old veteran has routinely faced slow paces detrimental to her stretch-running style. She got a bit more pace to chase when facing males in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) last month and finished second by half a length, so if she encounters a fair tempo in the Filly & Mare Turf, War Like Goddess figures to be gobbling up ground down the homestretch. She lost this race by less than one length back in 2021.

I'll also mention #2 Full Count Felicia (12-1) as a must-use live longshot. The gate-to-wire E. P. Taylor winner has never run 1 3/8 miles, but may shake loose on an uncontested lead under five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. If she does, Full Count Felicia may forget to stop in the homestretch.

Breeders' Cup Sprint

Top Selection: There's a ton of speed in this field, which could compromise morning line favorite #3 Federal Judge (3-1), who benefited from an inside bias when wiring the Phoenix (G2) in a fast time last month. If a blazing pace unfolds, it should suit #4 Nakatomi (6-1), who ran third by two lengths in the 2023 Breeders' Cup Sprint while facing Elite Power and Gunite. I'm not sure there are any horses as good as those two in this year's Sprint field, so Nakatomi may have an easier time in his second Breeders' Cup appearance. He ran against the bias when second to Federal Judge in the Phoenix and previously won the Alfred G. Vanderbilt H. (G1) during the summer at Saratoga, so look for Nakatomi to close ground strongly down the Del Mar homestretch.

Second Choice: Another horse who figures to benefit from a hot pace is #9 Remake (8-1), the stretch-running Japanese sprinter who boasts wins in the Riyadh Dirt Sprint (G3) and Korea Sprint (G3) this year. Back in 2023, he ran third to Elite Power and Gunite in the Riyadh Dirt Sprint, so form lines suggest this globetrotting five-year-old has the talent to factor in the Breeders' Cup Sprint.

Breeders' Cup Mile

Top Selection: A strong field of Europeans has turned out for the Mile, and I narrowly prefer Charlie Appleby's three-year-old #6 Notable Speech (7-2). He faltered over soft ground in the Prix du Moulin de Longchamp (G1) last time out, but over drier ground the Godolphin homebred has been excellent. During the spring he won England's historic 2000 Guineas (G1) over good ground, and when tackling good-to-firm turf in the Sussex (G1) he conquered older rivals by 1 1/2 lengths. William Buick retains the mount as he and Appleby seek to win the Mile for the fourth straight year.

Second Choice: #7 Porta Fortuna (4-1) finished second by half a length in the 2023 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) and has since developed into one of Europe's top milers. A neck defeat in the 1000 Guineas (G1) preceded wins in the Coronation (G1), Falmouth (G1), and Matron (G1), so this classy sophomore filly is a formidable win threat while returning to North America.

Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile

Top Selection: There's a ton of speed in this field, so why not support stretch-running #8 Post Time (12-1) at a price? He was in hot form during the winter and spring, winning four straight races including the General George (G3) and Carter (G2). Then, during the spring, he held his own against top-tier competition when second in the Metropolitan H. (G1) and third (beaten only 2 1/2 lengths) in the Whitney (G1). Post Time remains in strong form, having trounced the one-mile Polynesian S. at Laurel Park last month by 11 1/2 lengths, and the Dirt Mile is arguably an easier spot than the Metropolitan or Whitney. At 12-1, Post Time is worth a long look.

Second Choice: #9 Domestic Product (7-2) has been riding a hot streak since cutting back to one mile or less, dominating the Dwyer (G3) by 7 1/2 lengths before beating a deep field in the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial (G1). Stepping up against older rivals is a new challenge, and I'm not sure Domestic Product is quite as effective around two turns as he is around one turn. But he did win the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) around two turns during the spring, and a blazing pace would play to the strengths of this stretch-running sophomore.

Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the 14 Breeders' Cup races?

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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.