By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
On a relatively quiet
weekend before Thanksgiving, one of the biggest races on the calendar is
Saturday's $300,000 Commonwealth Turf (G3), a 1 1/16-mile grass contest for
three-year-olds taking place at Churchill Downs.
I'm highlighting the
Commonwealth in this week's edition of Unlocking Winners because I believe #1 My Boy Prince (6-1), the fifth
choice on the morning line, has a legitimate chance to upset his eight rivals.
Conditioned by Hall of Fame
trainer Mark Casse, My Boy Prince showed plenty of talent on turf as a
juvenile. In his first try over the surface, he ran second in the Summer (G1)
at Woodbine, beaten only by future Saratoga Derby (G1) and Jockey Club Derby
(G3) winner Carson's Run.
Then, after wiring the 1
1/16-mile Cup and Saucer S. against fellow Canadian-breds, My Boy Prince
stepped up in class for the one-mile Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) and fared
best of the North American contingent, finishing third by 1 1/2 lengths against
a pair of European raiders.
This year, My Boy Prince has
struggled on turf, missing the board in all three of his starts over the
surface. He's fared much better on Tapeta at Woodbine, winning three stakes and
finishing second in the $1 million King's Plate S. But I would argue
extenuating circumstances explain My Boy Prince's turf defeats:
-
In the 5 1/2-furlong
Palisades S. at Keeneland, his first start off a five-month layoff, My Boy
Prince finished eighth but was beaten only 3 1/4 lengths over a distance surely
shorter than ideal.
-
In the one-mile
Woodbine Mile (G1) at Woodbine, My Boy Prince took on older horses and finished
sixth, beaten only 4 1/2 lengths while gaining some ground down the
homestretch.
-
In the one-mile Bryan
Station (G3) at Keeneland, My Boy Prince set too aggressive of a pace, leading
by as many as three lengths through testing fractions of :22.49, :44.95, and
1:09.00. He still led passing the eighth pole, but understandably tired late to
finish ninth while deep closers swept the exacta.
I'm optimistic everything
will go My Boy Prince's way in the Commonwealth Turf. He's facing fellow
three-year-olds over a suitable distance and looms as the only obvious pacesetter
on paper. My Boy Prince has every opportunity to secure an uncontested lead
while breaking from the rail under new jockey Florent Geroux, opening the door
for a major rebound.
For second place, give #8 Herchee (3-1) a try. He stayed
within three lengths of My Boy Prince's blazing tempo in the Bryan Station
before battling on to finish third by 1 1/4 lengths. Herchee was the only speed
horse to even remotely survive the Bryan Station pace, and his effort wasn't a
fluke; he'd previously chased a hot pace on his way to finishing second in the
Gun Runner S. at Kentucky Downs. This lightly raced three-year-old gelding has
a big chance to factor in the Commonwealth Turf, especially if he works out a
favorable trip stalking a modest pace.
Lock of the Week
The Fair Grounds meet kicks
off on Friday, and the Saturday card is highlighted by a quartet of $100,000
stakes.
The first is the Donovan L.
Ferguson Memorial S., a six-furlong dirt dash for Louisiana-bred two-year-old
fillies. The small six-horse field is led by the undefeated #2 Secret Faith (2-5), a three-time
stakes winner poised to secure her fifth win from as many starts.
Secret Faith opened her
career against non-state-restricted competition, crushing an Evangeline Downs
maiden special weight before taking the Texas Thoroughbred Association Futurity
at Lone Star Park. But she's been even more dominant since tackling the
Louisiana-bred ranks. Back at Evangeline, she wired the D. S. Shine Young
Futurity by 14 lengths. Then she took her game to Delta Downs, where she
overcame some trouble to rally and win the Louisiana Jewel S. by 6 1/4 lengths.
Some bettors may try to beat
Secret Faith with #4 Mischief Princess (5-1),
a Steve Asmussen trainee who dominated a six-furlong maiden special weight at
Louisiana Downs by 9 1/2 lengths. But Secret Faith has run significantly faster
than Mischief Princess on both the Beyer and Brisnet speed figure scales, so
I'm confident Secret Faith will keep her win streak alive at Fair Grounds.
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like this week?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
