By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
Happy Thanksgiving!
A delightful week of racing
is underway. There are graded stakes to enjoy on Thursday, Friday, Saturday,
and Sunday, including the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), a prominent Road to the
Kentucky Derby qualifier.
After analyzing the entries for
a wide variety of races, here are four horses who I believe are highly likely to
visit the winner's circle this week:
Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs
While there are exceptions,
Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) alumni often perform well when wheeling back a few weeks
later for the 1 1/16-mile Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs.
In 2022, Curly Jack (fifth
in the Juvenile) improved to second place in the Kentucky Jockey Club. In 2020,
Juvenile third-place finisher Keepmeinmind delivered victory in the Kentucky
Jockey Club. And in 2018, Signalman parlayed a third in the Juvenile into first
prize in the Kentucky Jockey Club.
That's why I'm willing to
bet #2 Jonathan's Way (5-2) can
shine in the Kentucky Jockey Club. He opened his career with back-to-back wins,
rallying after a troubled start to dominate a six-furlong maiden special weight
before wiring the one-mile Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs in decisive
fashion.
Jonathan's Way subsequently
faltered at a short price in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, finishing seventh. But
the Juvenile was a fast race, and even in defeat Jonathan's Way earned a
respectable 87 Beyer Speed Figure and a sharp 99 Brisnet Speed rating.
Jonathan's Way has turned in
quick workouts since the Juvenile (including a bullet five furlongs in :58 4/5)
and has every chance to rebound while dropping in class and returning to
Churchill Downs for the Kentucky Jockey Club.
FTBOA Florida Sire My Dear Girl S. at Gulfstream Park
A race restricted to Florida
Sire Stakes-registered juvenile fillies isn't the most common place to search
for future Kentucky Oaks (G1) contenders, but the favorite to win this year's 1
1/16-mile FTBOA Florida Sire My Dear Girl S. may indeed be Kentucky
Oaks-caliber.
#1 Stunner (3-5)
has done little wrong in three starts against non-state-restricted competition.
She finished second in her debut sprinting at Saratoga, a fast contest won by
the exciting filly Senza Parole. Stunner subsequently wired a similar maiden
sprint at Saratoga by 6 1/4 lengths.
This preceded a start in the
one-mile Tempted S. at Aqueduct, in which Stunner again led all the way to win
by 3 1/2 lengths. She brings strong speed figures into the My Dear Girl and has
the pedigree to shine while stretching out around two turns for the first time,
so if you're looking for a single to build multi-race wagers around, this Brad
Cox-trained filly is a compelling choice.
FTBOA Florida Sire In Reality S. at Gulfstream Park
Stretching out from seven
furlongs to 1 1/16 miles is the one meaningful question mark facing #1 Rated by Merit (3-5) in the FTBOA
Florida Sire In Reality S. But the abundant talent he's shown in sprints should
allow him to shine even while making his two-turn debut.
Rated by Merit hasn't been
meaningfully challenged in three starts, all at Gulfstream. He debuted in a
non-state-restricted maiden special weight and romped by 9 3/4 lengths with a
92 Beyer Speed Figure. The he stepped into the Florida Sire ranks, winning the
six-furlong Dr. Fager S. by 6 1/4 lengths and the seven-furlong Affirmed S. by
3 3/4 lengths. Those wins yielded improving Beyers of 93 and 99, with the
latter number ranking as the highest posted by any juvenile so far this year.
There's enough stamina in
Rated by Merit's pedigree to suggest he can stretch out over 1 1/16 miles, and
a sharp five-furlong workout in :59 2/5 on Nov. 20 should have him ready for
another peak performance. I'm confident he'll maintain his edge over #8 Neoequos (7-2), runner-up in the Dr.
Fager and Affirmed.
Hollywood Derby (G1) at Del Mar
Although the Hollywood Derby
takes place in California, the 1 1/8-mile turf test is often won by horses shipping
in from the East Coast or Midwest. Five of the last eight winners prepped
outside of California, and a sixth winner competed primarily on the East Coast
before running in one prep race at Santa Anita.
That's why I'm keen to
support #4 Carson's Run (3-1) in this
year's Hollywood Derby. The 2023 Summer (G1) winner has been on a roll as of
late, winning the Tale of the Cat S., Saratoga Derby (G1), and Jockey Club Derby
(G3) in addition to finishing second in the Nashville Derby (G3).
Carson's Run has proven
effective over distances from one mile to 1 3/8 miles, so the 1 1/8-mile trip
of the Hollywood Derby should suit him just fine. Even better, there appears to
be enough pace entered in the Hollywood Derby to set up Carson's Run's typical
homestretch rally. I'm optimistic Carson's Run will swoop past the field to
secure his third Grade 1 win.
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like this week?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
