By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
Happy New Year!
I'm happy to report I hit a
milestone goal in 2024: 50% winning selections on Unlocking Winners. Depending
on whether or not you count second choices after a few of my top choices
scratched, my record for the year ended at either 47-for-94 (50%) or 49-for-97
(50.5%).
Thank you for bearing with me
as I toured plenty of minor stakes in search of near-certain winners. I hope my
7-for-14 Breeders' Cup tally, with winning longshots Citizen Bull (15-1) and
Soul of an Angel (19-1), compensated for the amount of chalky favorites I
picked along the way. Chalk notwithstanding, my Breeders' Cup picked ensured
that anyone betting an equal amount to win on all my selections in 2024 would
have made a profit.
Having unlocked an ample
supply of winners in 2024, my goal for 2025 is to pursue higher payoffs. I'll
start with a non-favored entrant in Saturday's $250,000 Smarty Jones S. at
Oaklawn Park, a 1 1/16-mile Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier that yielded
last year's Derby 1-3 finishers Mystik Dan and Catching Freedom.
The morning line favorite is
#6 Hot Property (8-5), and his
credentials are respectable. Trained by Brad Cox (who has won three of the last
four editions of the Smarty Jones), Hot Property debuted with victory in a 1
1/16-mile maiden special weight at Fair Grounds last month. The stoutly bred
son of Medaglia d'Oro led all the way to defeat next-out winner Seattle Road by
3 3/4 lengths, earning an 84 Beyer Speed Figure.
I should note, however, that
Hot Property benefited from setting a slow pace. Fractions of :24.89, :49.65,
and 1:14.64 gave him a tactical advantage over Seattle Road, who was attempting
to close from last place in a seven-horse field.
That's why I'm going to oppose
Hot Property with #1 Kale's Angel (2-1),
who has shown considerably more early speed. The Smarty Jones is often won in
gate-to-wire fashion by sprinters stretching out in distance—think Victory
Formation (2023), Gold Street (2020), Gray Attempt (2019), and Mourinho (2018)—and
I'm confident Kale's Angel can do exactly that.
No one would have identified
Kale's Angel as a probable Smarty Jones winner based off his first four starts
on turf. The son of Champagne (G1) winner Complexity enjoyed relatively little
success, winning only a five-furlong maiden special weight while missing the
trifecta in a pair of one-mile stakes.
But when Kale's Angel
switched to dirt for the 5 1/2-furlong Advent S. at Oaklawn last month, he ran
out of his skin. Relishing the change in surface, Kale's Angel tracked and
pressed fractions of :22.87 and :46.49 before blazing his fifth furlong in
about :11.68 and his final sixteenth in :06.21 to draw off and dominate by 5
3/4 lengths in 1:04.40, earning a 93 Beyer Speed Figure.
The form of Kale's Angel's
runaway win was flattered when runner-up Innovator returned to win a quick
six-furlong maiden special weight at Oaklawn last week.
The Oaklawn dirt has been
playing on the slow side this meet; on the same day Kale's Angel won the
Advent, older fillies and mares required 1:12.05 to complete a six-furlong
$50,000 allowance optional claimer. Kale's Angel's fast clocking is a sign of
serious talent, and I believe his 93 Beyer is well deserved.
There isn't much pace in the
Smarty Jones field, so I envision Kale's Angel working out an easy pacesetting
trip while stretching out in distance. I'm not sure Hot Property has enough
early speed to pressure Kale's Angel, so the Advent winner has every chance to
become the seventh gate-to-wire Smarty Jones winner in the last nine years.
On a related note, the lack
of speed in the Smarty Jones could compromise #8 Coal Battle (9-2), the third choice on the morning line and the
most accomplished horse in Saturday's field. He's undefeated in three starts on
dirt and enters off stretch-running victories in the 6 1/2-furlong Jean Lafitte
S. and one-mile Remington Springboard Mile S.
The problem is, Coal Battle
benefited from a destructive speed duel between the two favorites when charging
late to win the Springboard Mile by half a length. The runner-up, Speed King,
was one of the early duelers. Coal Battle is bred for speed, so unless he gets
a favorable pace setup, I'm concerned his rally may falter in the final furlong
over the Oaklawn homestretch.
For the minor awards, I'm
more inclined to support Churchill Downs maiden winner #5 Mo Quality (5-1) or perhaps #3
Optical (12-1), who recently battled to victory in a $50,000 starter
allowance racing one mile at Churchill.
Selections
1st: Kale's Angel
2nd: Hot Property
3rd: Mo Quality
4th: Optical
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Smarty Jones Stakes?
*****
Want to test your handicapping skills against fellow Unlocking Winners readers? Check out the Unlocking Winners contest page—there's a new challenge every week! (Please note: older contest entries can be found here.)
J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
