By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
On a quiet Saturday without
any graded stakes on the agenda, one of the most intriguing races is the
$150,000 Pasco S. at Tampa Bay Downs, a seven-furlong dirt sprint for
three-year-olds.
Every now and then, the
Pasco tosses up a Kentucky Derby starter. Half a dozen Pasco alumni have
entered the Run for the Roses since 2009, including West Saratoga last year.
The 2025 Pasco field has
come up small but strong. Only six horses have been entered, but there are
several promising names in the mix, including established Road to the Kentucky
Derby competitor #6 Owen Almighty.
Trainer by Brian Lynch (who
has gone 2-for-2 at Tampa this meet), Owen Almighty started his career on a
high note. In June, he won a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill
Downs by 3 1/2 lengths. In August, he dominated the seven-furlong Ellis Park
Juvenile S. by 4 3/4 lengths over Bashford Manor S. winner Politicallycorrect.
Owen Almighty also ran well
when making his graded stakes debut in Churchill's one-mile Iroquois (G3) on
the Road to the Kentucky Derby, closing from just off the pace to finish second
by 2 3/4 lengths to Jonathan's Way, who later ran second in the Kentucky Jockey
Club (G2).
Unfortunately, Owen Almighty
hasn't run since. A gastrointestinal infection interrupted his training, and he
disappeared from the work tab for nearly two months. He returned to serious
training at the end of November and has posted half a dozen workouts in
preparation for the Pasco, including a quick half-mile from the Palm Meadows
starting gate in :47 3/5.
Lynch wins at a 23% rate
with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, so chances are Owen
Almighty will be primed for a fine showing in his comeback. But he may need his
absolute A game to defeat #4 Rookie Card,
an up-and-comer with a strong chance to spring a mild surprise.
Rookie Card has knocked
heads with some tough rivals in his first three starts. He debuted in a deep
six-furlong maiden special weight at Saratoga, where he ran second by a head
against next-out Champagne (G1) winner Tip Top Thomas while finishing three
lengths ahead of future Street Sense (G3) conqueror Sovereignty.
In his second start, Rookie
Card finished second in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Aqueduct,
beaten half a length while pulling 8 1/4 lengths clear of the rest. He finally
graduated when tackling a six-furlong maiden special weight at Aqueduct,
leading all the way to romp by five lengths over a field containing next-out
winner and recent Mucho Macho Man S. runner-up Treaty of Rome.
Having demonstrated his
worth against stakes-caliber rivals like Tip Top Thomas, Sovereignty, and
Treaty of Rome, Rookie Card should be ready to step up in class for the Pasco.
His Beyer Speed Figures and Brisnet Speed ratings compare favorably to Owen
Almighty, and his abundant early speed (he's set the pace in all three of his
starts) may lend him a tactical advantage. Rookie Card is my choice to win the
Pasco.
Owen Almighty can take home
second place over #5 Naughty Rascal,
a two-time stakes winner on dirt and turf who finished second in Tampa's
six-furlong Inaugural S. last month.
Selections
1st: Rookie Card
2nd: Owen Almighty
3rd: Naughty Rascal
Bonus Pick
Race 3 on the Saturday card
at Tampa Bay Downs is a maiden special weight for three-year-old fillies
sprinting six furlongs on dirt, and I'm keen to support #8 Cease Fire, one of two first-time starters conditioned by
trainer Christophe Clement.
Did you know Clement is
almost unstoppable when debuting horses in dirt sprints at Tampa Bay Downs?
Since 2020, he's gone 7-for-9 (78%) with such runners.
That powerful statistic
alone is reason enough to back Cease Fire, but there are other positives in her
favor. She enters off a bullet three-furlong workout in :36 4/5 at Payson Park.
She's a daughter of War Front, who sires a solid 14% winners from first-time
starters per Brisnet statistics. And she'll be ridden by five-time Eclipse
Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., who has gone 3-for-6 (50%) teaming up with
Clement over the last two months.
The War Front and Ortiz
angles are the reasons I prefer Cease Fire over her stablemate #7 Curlaine. Since the Pasco is Race 4,
consider betting a cold Cease Fire/Rookie Card daily double.
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like at Tampa Bay Downs this Saturday?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
