By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
One of the best betting
races this Saturday is also the race drawing the most headlines: the $250,000
Lecomte (G3) at Fair Grounds, an important Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier
worth 20-10-6-4-2 points to the top five finishers.
A large and competitive
field has turned out for the Lecomte. There are many viable win contenders,
particularly if you're willing to oppose morning-line favorite #13 Built (3-1), who has a meaningful
question to answer in his graded stakes debut.
Built impressed when making
his Road to the Kentucky Derby debut in the 1 1/16-mile Gun Runner S. at Fair
Grounds last month. Racing over the same distance as the Lecomte, Built led from
the start and powered clear down the homestretch to win by 6 3/4 lengths,
earning a strong 92 Beyer Speed Figure.
But Built enjoyed a perfect
setup in the Gun Runner. Facing only four rivals, he escaped with an easy lead
through slow fractions of :24.64, :49.23, and 1:13.77, leaving him with plenty
in the tank to accelerate his fourth quarter-mile in :23.50 and his final
sixteenth in :06.24.
Built is unlikely to receive
as favorable a setup in the Lecomte. He broke from the rail in the Gun Runner,
but will start from an outside post this Saturday (probably post 12 following
the expected scratch of #3 Admiral Dennis). And there are plenty of other speed
horses in the field, so the pace is likely to be honest.
Perhaps Built can overcome
these obstacles; in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs,
he pressed fractions of :21.93 and :45.26 before taking over to win by 1 1/2
lengths. But in my opinion, Built's 3-1 morning line odds are a little too
short given the possibility he'll encounter a tougher setup and regress off his
Gun Runner performance.
Instead, I'm going to think
outside the box with a speedy longshot as my top choice. I'm going to side with
#1 Innovator (10-1) from the barn of
Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas.
Innovator lost his first six
starts as a juvenile, but he repeatedly ran well against tough competition. For
example:
-
He ran second in a 5
1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Saratoga, beaten only three-quarters of a
length by future Sugar Bowl S. winner and Lecomte entrant #8 Tough Catch (10-1).
-
He ran second by 1
3/4 lengths in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Saratoga, beaten only
by future Street Sense (G3) third-place finisher and promising allowance winner
Sandman while pulling 5 3/4 lengths ahead of next-out winner and eventual
Remsen (G2) runner-up Aviator Gui.
-
He finished fifth out
of nine in the Hopeful (G1) behind Chancer McPatrick, who returned to win the
Champagne (G1).
-
He carved out the
pace in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs before finishing
second by a head against next-out San Vicente (G2) winner Barnes, an early
favorite for the Kentucky Derby. Innovator pulled 10 1/2 lengths clear of the
third-place finisher.
-
He finished second in
the 5 1/2-furlong Advent S. to Kale's Angel, who returned to finish third in
the Smarty Jones S. on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
Clearly Innovator showed
more ability than your typical 0-for-6 maiden. And guess what? He ended 2024 on
a high note, leading all the way over a muddy track at Oaklawn Park to win a six-furlong
maiden special weight by a head. His winning time over the slow track was a sharp
1:09.81, good enough to earn an 87 Beyer Speed Figure.
As a son of 2020 Kentucky
Derby winner Authentic out of a mare by Unbridled's Song, Innovator has the
pedigree to shine while stretching out over 1 1/16 miles. I can envision a
scenario in which Innovator dashes to the lead in the Lecomte, sets a solid yet
relaxed pace (when compared to his sprint races), and keeps going down the homestretch
to spring a double-digit upset. With this possibility in mind, Innovator is my
choice to win.
Other appealing contenders
include #11 Disco Time (9-2), the
undefeated winner of a one-mile $100,000 allowance optional claimer at
Churchill Downs; #2 Maximum Promise (10-1),
a powerful 14 1/2-length maiden special weight winner racing one mile at Ellis
Park last summer; #5 Optical (20-1),
last seen battling to victory in a one-mile $50,000 starter allowance at
Churchill Downs; and #7 Calling Card (12-1),
who wasn't helped by a slow early/fast late race shape when finishing third in
a one-mile $125,000 allowance optional claimer at Oaklawn.
I definitely recommend
including Maximum Promise and Optical on your tickets. Maximum Promise's
runaway maiden win came at the expense of a next-out winner, and he could be
any sort of talent for the high-profile jockey/trainer duo of Brian Hernandez
Jr. and Kenny McPeek. As for Optical, he impressed me with a fast-finishing
14-length victory in a one-mile maiden special weight at Churchill last
September, and he's eligible to outrun expectations while adding blinkers off
fast workouts at Fair Grounds.
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Lecomte?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
