By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
The ninth running of the $3
million Pegasus World Cup (G1) is taking place on Saturday at Gulfstream Park.
A competitive 12-horse field will race 1 1/8 miles over the main track, and
determining the most likely winner isn't easy.
Reviewing the first eight
editions of the Pegasus World Cup reveals a strong trend: speed horses
dominate. No winner has closed from farther back than fourth place, and none
have settled more than 2 1/2 lengths off the pace at any call.
However, there aren't many
speed horses entered in this year's Pegasus World Cup. The only obvious
pacesetter is #2 Saudi Crown (9-2),
winner of the 2023 Pennsylvania Derby (G1). He regularly sets the pace and
exits a two-length victory in a quick renewal of the 1 1/16-mile Tenacious S.
at Fair Grounds last month.
But can Saudi Crown handle 1
1/8 miles? It's probably a little longer than he wants to run. He did win the
Pennsylvania Derby over this distance, but only by a diminishing half-length over
a rival with a 1-for-10 career record as of this writing.
Saudi Crown also has a
tendency to misfire without obvious excuses; last year he finished 12th in the
Godolphin Mile (G2) and 13th in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1). There are
enough uncertainties surrounding Saudi Crown that I hesitate to select him in
the Pegasus World Cup, even if he does seem likely to secure an uncontested
lead.
Who are other possible speed
horses? #3 Newgrange (20-1) has
shown pacesetting speed on occasion, most notably when wiring the 2024 San
Pasqual (G2) over a strong field including future Grade 1 winners Newgate and
Mixto. But Newgrange hasn't run since July and failed to show as much speed in
his final two starts of 2024, so it's difficult to predict what running style
he'll utilize in his return.
#4 White Abarrio (3-1)
is fast enough to force the pace on his best day, as he did when dominating the
2023 Whitney (G1) by 6 1/4 lengths. That runaway win preceded a pace-tracking
triumph in the 2023 Breeders' Cup Classic (G1).
But since returning from a
layoff in November, White Abarrio has shown a tendency to break slowly. It didn't
matter when he trounced five rivals by a double-digit margin in a seven-furlong
$62,500 allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream Park, but it arguably cost him
victory in the Mr. Prospector (G3) over the same track and distance, as White
Abarrio raced in ninth place for the first half-mile before gobbling up ground
to finish second by 1 1/4 lengths. If he breaks slowly from post 4 in the Pegasus
World Cup, White Abarrio may have a tough time working out the trip he needs to
shine.
#10 Skippylongstocking (10-1)
usually finds himself setting or stalking the pace, and through the years he's
won seven graded stakes and over $3 million in purse money. That's an admirable
record, but he's yet to finish better than third in nine starts against Grade 1
company, and he's finished off the board in two previous editions of the
Pegasus World Cup. The caliber of competition on Saturday may prove to be a
little too stiff for Skippylongstocking.
For all these reasons, I've
settled on #11 Locked (5-2) as my
choice to win the Pegasus World Cup. True, he's drawn post 11 and risks a wide
trip with the short run to the first turn. And yes, he tends to be more of a midpack
closer than a speed horse, which isn't the ideal running style for the Pegasus
World Cup.
But I believe Locked can
overcome both these obstacles.
Let's start with the question
of tactical speed. When Locked won the Cigar Mile H. (G2) racing a one-turn
mile at Aqueduct last time out, he closed from sixth place. But take note, he
was never more than 3 1/4 lengths behind sharp fractions of :22.87 and :45.30. He
advanced to third place by 1 1/2 lengths through six furlongs in 1:09.81, then
took over down the homestretch to defeat Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) third-place
finisher Mullikin by 1 1/2 lengths, with Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1) runner-up
Post Time another length behind in third.
Two starts back, in his return
from a nearly one-year layoff, Locked won a seven-furlong $62,500 allowance
optional claimer at Aqueduct by 7 1/2 lengths. On that occasion, he raced in second
place early on, only one length behind fractions of :22.83 and :45.09.
The distinct possibility of
a modest pace in the Pegasus World Cup opens the door for Locked to secure a
favorable forward position while stretching out around two turns. And even if
he races wide along the way, he may have the talent and stamina to compensate.
In the 2023 Breeders' Futurity (G1) racing 1 1/16 miles around two turns,
Locked raced wide every step of the journey, but still got up to win by half a
length.
In my opinion, Locked's
Cigar Mile triumph against Mullikin and Post Time ranks as the best piece of
recent form belonging to any horse in the Pegasus World Cup field. With the
right trip—which I believe he'll receive—Locked can keep his win streak alive on
Saturday.
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Pegasus World Cup?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.