Will a Price Horse Upset the Holy Bull?

By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman

Three Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifiers are taking place on the first day of February. Two in particular—the Holy Bull (G3) and the Robert B. Lewis (G3)—have drawn deep and intriguing fields.

Let's take a look at both races:

Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream Park

Year after year, almost without exception, the 1 1/16-mile Holy Bull plays unkindly toward the top betting choice. Since 2012, accomplished juveniles like Hansen, Shanghai Bobby, Classic Empire, Enticed, Frosted, Maximus Mischief, Mo Donegal, and Fierceness have all fallen to defeat at odds of 2-1 or less. That list of names includes four champions.

Will the trend continue in 2025? #2 Ferocious (9-5) is hands-down the most accomplished horse in this year's Holy Bull field. As a juvenile, he dominated his debut before finishing second in the Hopeful (G1) and Breeders' Futurity (G1). He ended the year with a troubled trip in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), in which he ran into traffic repeatedly before closing some ground to finish fifth by 6 1/2 lengths.

I'd be tempted to side with Ferocious to win the Holy Bull if not for one factor: he's posted only three timed workouts since the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He clocked three furlong in :36 3/5 on Dec. 28, four furlongs in :48 on Jan. 16, and five furlongs in 1:01 4/5 on Jan. 24. Those are respectable exercises, but I wonder if Ferocious might be a little short of peak fitness for his three-year-old debut. Per Brisnet statistics, trainer Gustavo Delgado wins only 4% of the time with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more.

Instead, I'll try backing #7 Burnham Square (5-1), the fourth choice on the morning line. The three-year-old gelding started his career on the Kentucky circuit, launching big late rallies to finish second in a six-furlong $150,000 maiden claimer and third in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight. The latter race was won by Monet's Magic, who has since won an allowance and run fifth in a deep edition of the Southwest (G3).

Burnham Square subsequently shipped to Gulfstream Park and ran out of his skin when adding blinkers for a Dec. 28 maiden special weight over the same 1 1/16-mile distance as the Holy Bull. Showing much-improved tactical speed, he took over the lead before half a mile had been run and powered clear down the homestretch to win by nine lengths.

I envision Burnham Square working out a perfect trip in the Holy Bull. He can sit just off the pace presumably set by Mucho Macho Man S. winner #4 Guns Loaded (5-2) and pounce when called upon. The fact Burnham Square has a recent race under his belt should give him the edge he needs to hold off Ferocious down the homestretch.

For second place, I'll take #3 Tappan Street (3-1), a $1 million yearling acquisition trained by Brad Cox, The son of six-time leading sire Into Mischief debuted with victory in a seven-furlong maiden special weight on Dec. 28 at Gulfstream and has upside for improvement in his second start. Keep in mind, Cox wins at a 29% rate with horses running long for the first time per Brisnet statistics.

Robert B. Lewis (G3) at Santa Anita

In contrast to my creative selection in the Holy Bull, I'll side with morning line favorite #2 Citizen Bull (6-5) to deliver victory in the one-mile Robert B. Lewis.

One of three entrants conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert (who has won the last six editions of this race), Citizen Bull was a work in progress throughout his juvenile campaign. He won his debut, finished third in the Del Mar Futurity (G1), and then bounced back to wire the American Pharoah (G1). Along the way, Baffert noted how Citizen Bull was a heavy colt who would benefit from his racing experience.

Three blazing workouts following the American Pharoah helped Citizen Bull peak in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1). He led from the start once again to beat a strong field by 1 1/2 lengths.

Rather than give Citizen Bull a long rest, Baffert returned the son of Into Mischief to serious training in mid-December. Since then, Citizen Bull has cranked out seven timed workouts, and the last five have been particularly impressive. Five furlongs in :59 2/5... five furlongs in a bullet :59 1/5... five furlongs in 1:00 3/5... six furlongs in a bullet 1:12.00... and five furlongs in a bullet :59.00.

This strong training regimen should help Citizen Bull maintain or improve his form in the Robert B. Lewis. I don't think we've seen the best Citizen Bull has to offer yet, and I believe he'll record another gate-to-wire win in his three-year-old debut.

For second place, I'm keen to support Baffert's #3 Rodriguez (7-5), who demolished a one-mile maiden special weight at Santa Anita by seven lengths with a flashy 100 Beyer Speed Figure. The son of 2020 Kentucky Derby winner Authentic has trained strongly since then and could be any sort of talent.

#1 Madaket Road (5-2), runner-up in the Bob Hope (G3) and winner of a six-furlong maiden special weight on opening day at Santa Anita, can complete a Baffert trifecta sweep.

Now it's your turn! Who do you like in this week's Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifiers?

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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.

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