By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
Three Road to the Kentucky
Derby qualifiers are taking place on the first day of February. Two in
particular—the Holy Bull (G3) and the Robert B. Lewis (G3)—have drawn deep and
intriguing fields.
Let's take a look at both
races:
Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream Park
Year after year, almost
without exception, the 1 1/16-mile Holy Bull plays unkindly toward the top
betting choice. Since 2012, accomplished juveniles like Hansen, Shanghai Bobby,
Classic Empire, Enticed, Frosted, Maximus Mischief, Mo Donegal, and Fierceness
have all fallen to defeat at odds of 2-1 or less. That list of names includes
four champions.
Will the trend continue in
2025? #2 Ferocious (9-5) is
hands-down the most accomplished horse in this year's Holy Bull field. As a
juvenile, he dominated his debut before finishing second in the Hopeful (G1)
and Breeders' Futurity (G1). He ended the year with a troubled trip in the
Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), in which he ran into traffic repeatedly before
closing some ground to finish fifth by 6 1/2 lengths.
I'd be tempted to side with
Ferocious to win the Holy Bull if not for one factor: he's posted only three
timed workouts since the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He clocked three furlong in
:36 3/5 on Dec. 28, four furlongs in :48 on Jan. 16, and five furlongs in 1:01
4/5 on Jan. 24. Those are respectable exercises, but I wonder if Ferocious
might be a little short of peak fitness for his three-year-old debut. Per
Brisnet statistics, trainer Gustavo Delgado wins only 4% of the time with
horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more.
Instead, I'll try backing #7 Burnham Square (5-1), the fourth
choice on the morning line. The three-year-old gelding started his career on
the Kentucky circuit, launching big late rallies to finish second in a
six-furlong $150,000 maiden claimer and third in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special
weight. The latter race was won by Monet's Magic, who has since won an
allowance and run fifth in a deep edition of the Southwest (G3).
Burnham Square subsequently shipped
to Gulfstream Park and ran out of his skin when adding blinkers for a Dec. 28
maiden special weight over the same 1 1/16-mile distance as the Holy Bull.
Showing much-improved tactical speed, he took over the lead before half a mile
had been run and powered clear down the homestretch to win by nine lengths.
I envision Burnham Square
working out a perfect trip in the Holy Bull. He can sit just off the pace
presumably set by Mucho Macho Man S. winner #4 Guns Loaded (5-2) and pounce when called upon. The fact Burnham
Square has a recent race under his belt should give him the edge he needs to
hold off Ferocious down the homestretch.
For second place, I'll take #3 Tappan Street (3-1), a $1 million
yearling acquisition trained by Brad Cox, The son of six-time leading sire Into
Mischief debuted with victory in a seven-furlong maiden special weight on Dec.
28 at Gulfstream and has upside for improvement in his second start. Keep in
mind, Cox wins at a 29% rate with horses running long for the first time per
Brisnet statistics.
Robert B. Lewis (G3) at Santa Anita
In contrast to my creative
selection in the Holy Bull, I'll side with morning line favorite #2 Citizen Bull (6-5) to deliver
victory in the one-mile Robert B. Lewis.
One of three entrants
conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert (who has won the last six
editions of this race), Citizen Bull was a work in progress throughout his
juvenile campaign. He won his debut, finished third in the Del Mar Futurity
(G1), and then bounced back to wire the American Pharoah (G1). Along the way,
Baffert noted how Citizen Bull was a heavy colt who would benefit from his
racing experience.
Three blazing workouts
following the American Pharoah helped Citizen Bull peak in the Breeders' Cup
Juvenile (G1). He led from the start once again to beat a strong field by 1 1/2
lengths.
Rather than give Citizen
Bull a long rest, Baffert returned the son of Into Mischief to serious training
in mid-December. Since then, Citizen Bull has cranked out seven timed workouts,
and the last five have been particularly impressive. Five furlongs in :59 2/5...
five furlongs in a bullet :59 1/5... five furlongs in 1:00 3/5... six furlongs in a
bullet 1:12.00... and five furlongs in a bullet :59.00.
This strong training regimen
should help Citizen Bull maintain or improve his form in the Robert B. Lewis. I
don't think we've seen the best Citizen Bull has to offer yet, and I believe
he'll record another gate-to-wire win in his three-year-old debut.
For second place, I'm keen
to support Baffert's #3 Rodriguez (7-5),
who demolished a one-mile maiden special weight at Santa Anita by seven lengths
with a flashy 100 Beyer Speed Figure. The son of 2020 Kentucky Derby winner
Authentic has trained strongly since then and could be any sort of talent.
#1 Madaket Road (5-2),
runner-up in the Bob Hope (G3) and winner of a six-furlong maiden special
weight on opening day at Santa Anita, can complete a Baffert trifecta sweep.
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in this week's Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifiers?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.