By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
A seemingly wide-open field
has assembled for Saturday's $250,000 Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa Bay Downs, the
latest stop on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
Ten horses have entered the
1 1/16-mile race, and in my opinion you can make a solid case for most of them
to win. Even some double-digit longshots have pathways to the winner's circle.
The two most accomplished
horses in the field are #6 Owen Almighty
(2-1) and #7 Poster (4-1). Both
have performed well on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, with Owen Almighty
finishing second in the one-mile Iroquois (G3) last fall and Poster taking the 1
1/8-mile Remsen (G2) in his dirt debut.
But both colts have
questions to answer. Owen Almighty has yet to race around two turns, and his
pedigree hints he might be best as a sprinter. He's crossed the wire first in
all three of his starts dashing seven furlongs or less, including last month's
Pasco S. at Tampa, in which he dueled through blazing fractions and crossed the
wire first before getting disqualified to fifth for interference. Adding
blinkers may sharpen Owen Almighty's speed even further.
As for Poster, he wasn't originally
intended to start in the Sam F. Davis. He was targeting last week's Withers S.
at Aqueduct, but nasty winter weather at his home base in Kentucky caused him
to miss some training. It's possible Poster will be a bit short of peak fitness
for his first start of the season.
I'll try to beat both Owen
Almighty and Poster. The question is, with which horse(s)?
I definitely want to include
#3 John Hancock (3-1) on my tickets.
The son of Constitution impressed when debuting in a six-furlong maiden special
weight at Tampa Bay Downs last month. Despite hopping at the start, he recovered
to set a solid pace, and down the homestretch he unleashed an eye-catching
burst of speed when asked for his best. John Hancock ran his final quarter-mile
in a swift :24.04 to win by three lengths in the snappy time of 1:09.45.
John Hancock is trained by
Brad Cox, who has gone 2-for-2 at Tampa Bay Downs this meet. According to
Brisnet statistics, Cox wins at a 29% rate with horses running long for the
first time, and just last week he sent out debut sprint winner Tappan Street to
finish a game second in the Holy Bull. Throw in the fact John Hancock is a
half-brother to 1 1/16-mile Ashland (G1) winner and 1 1/8-mile Kentucky Oaks
(G1) third-place finisher Speech, and there's a clear path for John Hancock to
shine in his route debut. The presence of hot jockey Flavien Prat (who has gone
4-for-5 at Tampa this meet) cements John Hancock as a serious win threat.
For all these reasons, I
narrowly prefer John Hancock as my top choice to win the Sam F. Davis. But
there are a couple of double-digit longshots I won't want to leave out of
multi-race wagers.
The first is #1 Camp Hale (20-1). True, he's a
0-for-3 maiden, but Camp Hale has run well against quality maiden special
weight competition. He finished second in his debut sprinting six furlongs at
Keeneland, ahead of next-out runaway winner Patch Adams. Then Camp Hale
finished second in a six-furlong contest at Churchill Downs, beaten only by
next-out Mucho Macho Man S. winner Guns Loaded.
Most recently, Camp Hale finished
second racing one mile at Gulfstream Park, beaten 2 1/2 lengths by the
promising Grande while pulling 5 1/4 lengths clear of the rest. Camp Hale
brings respectable Beyer Speed Figures and Brisnet Speed ratings to the table,
and he's bred to handle stretching out around two turns, so don't be surprised
if Camp Hale works out a ground-saving trip under jockey Brian Hernandez Jr.
and gets involved for a top-three finish.
The other longshot I like is
#4 Dr Ruben M (12-1), the
gate-to-wire winner of a one-mile maiden special weight at Santa Anita. Last
time out, Dr Ruben M engaged in a stiff speed duel with Speed King in the
Remington Springboard Mile S. before tiring to finish fourth. The winner, Coal
Battle, returned to win the Smarty Jones S., while runner-up Speed King came
back to upset the Southwest (G3).
Given the quality of the
Remington Springboard Mile field, I feel Dr Ruben M's fourth-place is
respectable, especially given the intensity of his duel with Speed King. If Dr
Ruben M opts for rating tactics in the Sam F. Davis, I think there's a chance
he'll move forward in a big way under jockey Junior Alvarado, who has gone
4-for-8 (50%) at Tampa this meet.
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Sam F. Davis?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
