By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
Saturday's $500,000 Risen
Star (G2) at Fair Grounds has drawn a strong field befitting its status as the
first 2024-25 Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier worth 50-25-15-10-5 points
to the top five finishers.
A field of 13 has entered,
and it includes two of the most accomplished juveniles of 2024: #4 East Avenue (9-5) and #2 Jonathan's Way (4-1). The two colts are bound to be popular in
the betting, but can either take home the top prize in their first run of the
season?
That's a good question. It's
actually uncommon for horses to win the Risen Star in their three-year-old
debut. Only two horses in recent history have done so: Gun Runner in 2016 and
Sierra Leone in 2024. Gun Runner went on to be Horse of the Year in 2017, and
Sierra Leone was voted champion three-year-old male last year, so you can argue
their above-average talent is what enabled them to win the Risen Star without
the benefit of a prep race.
Now, East Avenue and
Jonathan's Way have accomplished more to this point in their careers than Gun
Runner and Sierra Leone, so perhaps they too have the talent to succeed off the
layoff. East Avenue dominated his first two starts, including the Breeders'
Futurity (G1), before a bad stumble at the start of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile
(G1) contributed to his ninth-place finish. Jonathan's Way opened the Road to
the Kentucky Derby with a win in the Iroquois (G3) and later rallied to finish
second in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2).
But there are also chinks in
their armor. East Avenue benefited from a strong rail bias when taking the
Breeders' Futurity in gate-to-wire fashion, so it's difficult to gauge what his
true level of ability might be. Meanwhile, Jonathan's Way lacked an obvious
excuse when finishing seventh in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, his toughest race
to date. The best horses he's defeated so far include Sam F. Davis S. runner-up
Owen Almighty and Southwest (G3) third-place finish Tiztastic, so in terms of
form lines Jonathan's Way doesn't look like a lock to win the Risen Star.
For these reasons, I'm going
to oppose East Avenue and Jonathan's Way. Instead, I'm going to side with a
longshot: #1 American Promise (12-1).
A beautifully bred son of
Triple Crown winner Justify out of Tapella (the dam of five-time stakes winner
Hoosier Philly), American Promise has been slow to mature for Hall of Fame
trainer D. Wayne Lukas. The chestnut colt lost his first five starts as a
juvenile, all against maiden special weight competition. Along the way he
knocked heads with future Road to the Kentucky Derby participants like Burnham
Square, Chancer McPatrick, Filoso, and Render Judgment.
American Promise improved
when adding blinkers during the fall, and in late December he finally graduated
in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Oaklawn. Racing over a muddy track,
he led all the way through solid fractions to win by 1 1/2 lengths in the good
time of 1:44.81. The runner-up pulled 19 1/2 lengths clear of the rest.
That effort yielded strong
speed figures of 95 (Beyer) and 92 (Brisnet), and American Promise followed up
with a deceptively good try in the Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn. Facing one of the
deepest fields assembled for a Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier this year,
American Promise broke very slowly and conceded the leaders a couple of lengths
right out of the gate. He then rushed up outside of rivals (racing wide around
the first turn) and engaged eventual winner Speed King in an intense duel. At
one point, the two of them pulled half a dozen lengths clear of the rest.
American Promise
understandably tired after these exertions, but he never completely threw in
the towel and was beaten only 6 1/2 lengths in the end. If he gets into a clean
start in the Risen Star and reverts to pacesetting tactics from post position one...
who knows? If American Promise runs back to the speed figures from his maiden
win, he just might take this field all the way on the front end and spring a
double-digit upset.
Other logical contenders in
the Risen Star include #3 Vassimo (8-1),
a Todd Pletcher trainee fresh off a 2 3/4-length score in a $75,000 allowance
optional claimer at Tampa Bay Downs, and #9
Built (5-1), an easy winner of the Gun Runner S. and runner-up in the
Lecomte (G3) at Fair Grounds this winter. Both have strong chances to finish in
the top four, or even visit the winner's circle.
I'll also mention #12 Vamos Carlitos (30-1) as a live longshot. He closed from
behind a pedestrian pace to finish second in a $100,000 allowance optional
claimer racing 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds last month, beaten only
three-quarters of a length. Vamos Carlitos will almost certainly receive more
pace to work with in the Risen Star, so I can picture him closing for a minor
award under hot jockey Florent Geroux.
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Risen Star?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
