By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
An excellent field has
assembled for Sunday's Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn Park, as is befitting for a race
offering a $1.25 million purse and 50-25-15-10-5 Road to the Kentucky Derby
qualification points.
There plenty of logical
contenders to consider, so let's quickly analyze some of the most accomplished
entrants:
#3 Sandman (4-1)
is the morning line favorite. He gradually improved as a juvenile and ended
2024 with a fast-finishing win in a one-mile $125,000 allowance optional
claimer at Oaklawn.
I was impressed by Sandman's
performance in the 1 1/16-mile Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn last month. After
getting off to a terrible start, Sandman unleashed a long rally to finish
second by one length. But he was aided by an intense midrace speed duel between
eventual winner Speed King and also-ran American Promise.
#5 Madaket Road (9-2)
hails from the barn of eight-time Rebel-winning trainer Bob Baffert. The son of
Quality Road has sandwiched a determined maiden win in between a runner-up
finish in the Bob Hope (G3) and a third in the Robert B. Lewis (G3). The latter
defeat came at the hands of reigning champion two-year-old male Citizen Bull.
Madaket Road may find the
competition a little easier in the Rebel, but his race record to date hints he might
be better running shorter than the 1 1/16-mile trip he'll tackle at Oaklawn.
#10 Bullard (5-1)
launched a big rally to win his debut, then trounced Madaket Road by 4 3/4
lengths in the Bob Hope. However, the Bob Hope unfolded with blazing pace
fractions of :21.63 and :43.93, giving Bullard a perfect setup.
When Bullard encountered
more reasonable fractions of :22.65 and :45.10 in the San Vicente (G2) last
time out, he flattened out after rallying mildly to finish third, beaten six
lengths by early Kentucky Derby (G1) favorite Barnes. Bullard may find the
Rebel pace to be slower than ideal, especially if it turns out he's more of a
stretch-running sprinter/miler than a two-turn horse.
#11 Speed King (6-1)
warrants serious respect after leading all the way to win the Southwest over
Sandman and Tiztastic. A pure pacesetter, Speed King withstood a stiff midrace
duel in the Southwest and nearly did the same in the Remington Springboard Mile
S. two starts back, finishing second by half a length against late-running Coal
Battle.
The only problem for Speed
King is the presence of other serious pace players in the Rebel field. #8 Innovator (15-1) has set the pace in
each of his last four starts and figures to vie for early command again, and #9 Smoken Wicked (8-1) is bound to be
up close after showing speed in three straight sprint wins.
#13 Tiztastic (8-1)
has shown admirable consistency on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, running
second (ahead of Sandman) in the Street Sense (G3), third in the Kentucky
Jockey Club (G2), and third in the Southwest. He has a strong chance to pick up
additional Kentucky Derby qualification points in the Rebel, but he needs to
step forward off his last three efforts to challenge for victory.
#1 Coal Battle (10-1)
is unbeaten in four starts on dirt and has won twice on the Road to the Kentucky
Derby, rallying to beat Speed King in the Remington Springboard Mile before wiring
the Smarty Jones S. by four lengths.
Coal Battle's versatility is
impressive, but it should be noted he received perfect pace setups in both of
his Road to the Kentucky Derby wins. In the Springboard Mile, he rated nearly
six lengths off the pace as Speed King engaged in a long duel for supremacy. In
the Smarty Jones, he was allowed to set pedestrian fractions of :24.11, :49.03,
and 1:15.64 on the front end.
Since all of the
above-mentioned stakes alums have at least minor questions to answer, I'm going
to back an up-and-comer at potentially enticing odds: #4 Hypnus (10-1).
Hypnus is a beautifully bred
son of six-time leading North American sire Into Mischief out of Starlet (G1)
winner Dream Tree. Prior to his Jan. 18 debut in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special
weight at Fair Grounds, Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Kenny McPeek described
Hypnus as "a beast."
McPeek doesn't often saddle
winning first-time starters, but Hypnus overcame his 16-1 post-time odds to
rally from sixth place and score by 2 1/2 lengths in the good time of 1:46.33
over a sloppy track. Later in the day, the Lecomte (G3)—a Road to the Kentucky
Derby qualifier—produced a final time of 1:47.07.
Hypnus has since posted a
trio of five-furlong workouts at Fair Grounds, including one in 1:00.00 and
another in 1:00 4/5. From all appearances, he's ready to move forward in his
second start, which is common for McPeek trainees.
Sealing my support for
Hypnus is the lengthy list of McPeek trainees who have won first-time out before
going on to find success at the stakes level. Examples include 2024 Horse of
the Year Thorpedo Anna, multiple Grade 2 winner Smile Happy, Pocahontas (G3)
winner V V's Dream, Debutante S. conqueror Behave Virginia, Martha Washington
S. victor Band of Gold, and Smarty Jones S. winner Dash Attack.
Here's another way to crunch
the numbers: according to DRF Formulator statistics, over the last five years,
McPeek has gone 5-for-20 (25%) saddling second-time starters in stakes races.
If the 10-1 morning line
odds on Hypnus hold up (and I have my doubts), I think he'll offer real value
in this competitive field. He's my top choice to win.
Selections
1st: Hypnus
2nd: Sandman
3rd: Speed King
4th: Madaket Road
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Rebel?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
