By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
The first day of March is
packed with high-profile Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifiers.
Three stakes worth
50-25-15-10-5 points to the top five finishers are on the agenda. Let's take a look
at each one:
Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream Park
There are four accomplished
stakes winners slated to contest the 1 1/16-mile Fountain of Youth, but three
have possible chinks in their armor.
#1 Gate to Wire impressed
when making his dirt debut in the seven-furlong Swale S. at Gulfstream, romping
to victory by five lengths. But the Fountain of Youth marks his route debut,
and it's uncommon for horses without experience racing one mile or farther to
win this race.
#8 Keep It Easy was much the best in the 6 1/2-furlong Ed
Brown S. at Churchill Downs last fall, scoring by 5 1/4 lengths over next-out
Sugar Bowl S. winner Tough Catch. But like Gate to Wire, Keep It Easy is
stretching out beyond sprint distances for the first time.
#2 Sovereignty made
a great impression in the 1 1/16-mile Street Sense (G3) at Churchill Downs last
fall, surging from last place to win by five lengths. The form of the Street
Sense has held up well; runner-up Tiztastic and third-place finisher Sandman
have since placed in multiple Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifiers apiece. But
Sovereignty hasn't raced in Oct. 27, so it's possible he'll need a race off the
layoff.
#3 Burnham Square looks
like the most trustworthy of the proven stakes winners. He's gone 2-for-2 since
adding blinkers, and both of those wins have come racing 1 1/16 miles at
Gulfstream Park. He crushed a maiden special weight by nine lengths, then
launched a last-to-first rally to win the Holy Bull (G3) by 1 3/4 lengths.
But I'm going to side with
up-and-comer #6 River Thames, who
has run a bit faster than Burnham Square on the Beyer Speed Figure scale.
Whereas Burnham Square earned a 90 in the Holy Bull, River Thames earned a 94
when taking his sprint debut by 4 3/4 lengths and a 92 when trouncing a
one-mile $75,000 allowance optional claimer by 6 1/2 lengths.
Both of those wins came at
Gulfstream for the high-profile jockey/trainer duo of John Velazquez and Todd
Pletcher, who have respectively won the Fountain of Youth five and four times
apiece.
The Fountain of Youth isn't
packed with need-the-lead types, so I'm optimistic River Thames will work out a
favorable forwardly placed trip in his two-turn debut. If he winds up setting
or pressing a modest pace, that trip may give him the edge he needs to turn
back Burnham Square in the homestretch.
San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita
Arguably the strongest field
of the week can be found in the San Felipe. The 1 1/16-mile race has drawn
early Kentucky Derby favorite #3 Barnes,
impressive Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) winner #2 Journalism, and fast maiden winner #4 Rodriguez.
I won't be surprised if any
of these three win. But Barnes is stretching out around two turns for the first
time, and Journalism is returning from a 2 1/2-month layoff, so I'll side with
Rodriguez.
Rodriguez earned a terrific
100 Beyer Speed Figure when trouncing a one-mile maiden special weight at Santa
Anita by seven lengths. That form was flattered when runner-up Baeza won his
next start with a 93 Beyer.
Rodriguez subsequently
stepped up in class for the one-mile Robert B. Lewis (G3) at Santa Anita. He
couldn't quite keep pace with reigning champion two-year-old male Citizen Bull,
finishing second by 3 3/4 lengths, but he did pull 2 1/4 lengths clear of
Madaket Road, who came back to finish a strong second in the Rebel (G2).
Stiff workouts since the
Robert B. Lewis (including a bullet six furlongs in 1:11 4/5) should help
Rodriguez move forward in his second stakes start. I'm optimistic he'll deliver
victory under red-hot jockey Flavien Prat, a 32% winner at Santa Anita this
meet.
Gotham (G3) at Aqueduct
To me, the one-mile Gotham
is shaping up as a battle between three talented New York-breds: #3 Calling Card, #4 Sacrosanct, and #5 Sand
Devil.
Calling Card crushed a
one-mile maiden special weight for New York-breds at Aqueduct last fall by 17
1/4 lengths. He hasn't been as competitive in two subsequent starts against
non-state-restricted competition, finishing third in a $125,000 allowance
optional claimer at Oaklawn and eighth in the Lecomte (G3) at Fair Grounds. But
perhaps returning to Aqueduct will trigger a turnaround.
Sancrosanct has competed
exclusively against New York-breds, going 4-for-4 while winning three stakes. It's
hard to knock anything this Brad Cox trainee has accomplished, but take note,
he hasn't run in 2 1/2 months.
I'll side with Sand Devil,
who has run faster than Sacrosanct in terms of Beyer Speed Figures and Brisnet
Speed ratings. He's gone 3-for-3 against New York-breds and has run a couple of
strong races at Aqueduct this year. He obliterated a one-mile $80,000 allowance
optional claimer by 12 1/2 lengths, then battled to a neck triumph in the
seven-furlong Damon Runyon S.
Sand Devil has tactical
speed, but he also showed a strong finishing kick in the Damon Runyon, clocking
his final three furlongs in :36.14. I'm confident he has the talent to step
outside the New York-bred ranks and conquer Road to the Kentucky Derby
competition in the Gotham.
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in this week's Kentucky Derby preps?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
