By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
The Road to the Kentucky
Derby heads to Tampa Bay Downs this Saturday for the $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby
(G3).
A quality field has entered
the 1 1/16-mile race. Three of the seven entrants are stakes winners. Three of
the seven have won or placed at the Grade 1 level. Five of the seven have
earned Kentucky Derby (G1) qualification points.
#2 Chancer McPatrick
is the possible favorite. Certainly he brings the flashiest past performances
into the race. The deep-closing Chad Brown trainee won his first three starts
around one turn last year, including the Hopeful (G1) and Champagne (G1).
But Chancer McPatrick
struggled in his two-turn debut, rallying only mildly to finish sixth by 6 1/2
lengths in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1). He subsequently underwent surgery
to remove a bone chip from his ankle and has posted only six timed workouts in
preparation for the Tampa Bay Derby.
Keep in mind, it's not
uncommon for Brown's most accomplished dirt juveniles to lose their sophomore
debuts before improving sharply through the spring and into the Kentucky Derby.
Past examples include Good Magic, Practical Joke, Zandon, and Normandy
Invasion. The Tampa Bay Derby looks like a starting point for Chancer
McPatrick, and since he's yet to win around two turns, I'm going to oppose him
for win purposes.
#3 Hill Road is
another Brown trainee who may be using the Tampa Bay Derby as a springboard to
bigger and better things. Formerly based in Ireland with trainer Adrian Murray,
Hill Road made his dirt debut in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, rallying from dead
last to finish third by 4 3/4 lengths. It was a solid performance against a
tough field, but Hill Road has recorded only five timed workouts this year (including
two at three furlongs) and may be short of peak fitness for his sophomore debut.
Fitness shouldn't be any
concern for #1 Owen Almighty, who
has run twice at Tampa Bay Downs this winter. He led from start to finish in
the seven-furlong Pasco S. before getting disqualified to fifth place for
interfering with a rival. Then he finished second in the 1 1/16-mile Sam F.
Davis S. on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, beaten only 2 1/4 lengths by the
promising John Hancock.
I believe Owen Almighty has
a strong chance to finish in the top three in the Tampa Bay Derby. But it's
worth noting he's crossed the wire first in all three of his sprint starts and
is 0-for-2 racing one mile or farther. I wonder if 1 1/16 miles is just a hair
farther than Owen Almighty wants to run.
The same question mark
surrounds #6 Naughty Rascal, the
upgraded winner of the Pasco who tired to finish sixth in the Sam F. Davis. While
Naughty Rascal did win the one-mile Armed Forces S. on turf, he's 0-for-2 in
dirt routes and 3-for-4 in dirt sprints, so I suspect distances shorter than 1
1/16 miles are Naughty Rascal's true forte.
Oaklawn Park $200,000
allowance optional claiming winner #4
Brodeur and Breeders' Futurity (G1) third-place finisher #5 Filoso have delivered some respectable
performances, but neither has run particularly fast on the Beyer and Brisnet
speed figure scales.
This leaves #7 Patch Adams as my top choice to win
the Tampa Bay Derby. The son of six-time leading North American sire Into
Mischief impressed in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Down
last fall, dominating by 10 1/2 lengths in the fast time of 1:20.77—only 0.33
off a 12-year-old track record set by two-time Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare
Sprint (G1) winner Groupie Doll. That effort yielded a 98 Beyer, the highest
number in the Tampa Bay Derby field.
Patch Adams regressed when stepping
up in class and distance for the Jan. 25 Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn Park,
finishing fourth as the 4-5 favorite. But his performance was better than it
first appears. Patch Adams normally races on or near the lead, but in the
Southwest he got off to a poor start and dropped back to seventh place early
on.
Patch Adams could have
thrown in the towel, but instead he unleashed a sustained rally around the far
turn. He reached second place in midstretch before flattening out slightly in
the final furlong to finish 2 1/2 lengths behind the winner.
Even in defeat, Patch Adams
earned an 89 Beyer that stacks up well against the Tampa Bay Derby field. With
a clean trip on Saturday, I expect to see Patch Adams secure a forward position
from the far outside post and parlay that favorable trip into his first graded
stakes win.
Selections
1st: Patch Adams
2nd: Owen Almighty
3rd: Chancer McPatrick
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Tampa Bay Derby?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
