By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
The $500,000 Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs has undergone a few transformations through its history.
It started out as a 1 1/4-mile turf race. It shortened to 1 1/8 miles and moved
to Laurel Park for three runnings as the Commonwealth Derby. Then it returned
to Colonial Downs as the Virginia Derby, but stayed at 1 1/8 miles. Along the
way it's been held in July, August, September, and October.
Now the Virginia Derby has
undergone another major reconfiguration. It's shifted to March and switched
from turf to dirt while keeping its 1 1/8-mile distance. The changes are for a
reason: Saturday's renewal of the Virginia Derby marks its first running as a
Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier worth 50-25-15-10-5 points to the top five
finishers.
Ten horses have entered the
Virginia Derby, but according to Marcus Hersh of the Daily Racing Form, Sam F. Davis S. winner #2 John Hancock will scratch and instead await next week's
Louisiana Derby (G2).
This leaves #6 Getaway Car as the expected favorite
for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. Getaway Car's credentials are excellent. As
a juvenile, he placed second in the American Pharoah (G1) and fourth in the
Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), two races won by champion two-year-old male
Citizen Bull. Then he ended the year with a runner-up finish in the Los
Alamitos Futurity (G2), a race won by current Kentucky Derby favorite
Journalism.
Those efforts stamped
Getaway Car as the 6-5 favorite to win his 2025 debut in the 1 1/16-mile
Sunland Park Derby. After setting the pace, Getaway Car dug deep to turn back a
challenge from Oaklawn maiden winner Caldera and prevail by a nose.
I won't be surprised if
Getaway Car wins again in the Virginia Derby, especially since the scratch of
John Hancock takes some pace out of the race. But it's worth noting the
Virginia Derby wasn't the first plan for Getaway Car. Baffert had intended to
enter Breeders' Cup Juvenile runner-up Gaming, but according to Joaquin Jaime
of FanDuel, a temperature knocked Gaming out of consideration and prompted
Baffert to enter Getaway Car instead.
Getaway Car may have the
talent to win the Virginia Derby on short notice, but he's posted only two
modest workouts since the Sunland Park Derby: four furlongs in :50.20 and three
furlongs in :36.60. It's a much lighter work tab than the one Getaway Car
brought into the Sunland Park Derby.
That's why I'll try to beat
Getaway Car with up-and-coming maiden winner #7 Rapture. A stoutly bred son of Uncle Mo out of a mare by
Bernardini, Rapture is bred to relish racing 1 1/8 miles.
Rapture debuted in a
one-mile maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park, where he settled a couple
lengths off the pace before closing to finish second by one length against
Vassimo. The latter returned to win a Tampa Bay Downs allowance optional
claimer and finish fourth in a fast edition of the Risen Star (G2) at Fair
Grounds.
This respectable debut prepped
Rapture for victory in his second start. Stretching out around two turns for a
1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Oaklawn Park worked wonders for Rapture; he
tracked the pace in second place before seizing command to win by 6 1/2
lengths. His winning time of 1:46.17 stacked up well against the 1:45.86
clocking posted by Speed King in the Southwest (G3) on the same day.
Rapture has turned in five
workouts since his maiden win, including a trio of five-furlong exercises over
the slow track at Payson Park. I envision Rapture tracking Getaway Car's pace
in the Virginia Derby before taking over under Eclipse award-winning jockey Flavien
Prat to make his stakes debut a winning one.
The other horse I'm keen to
support is #3 American Promise. He
wired a fast maiden special weight at Oaklawn last December, then finished
sixth in the Southwest (G3) and fifth in the Risen Star (G2) on the Road to the
Kentucky Derby.
Those graded stakes defeats
were better than they first appear. American Promise broke slowly in the
Southwest before racing up to engage in a speed duel with eventual winner Speed
King. And the Risen Star was a fast race won in runaway fashion by Magnitude;
American Promise made a move around the far turn to chase Magnitude before
tiring late to finish only 3 1/4 lengths behind the runner-up.
The Virginia Derby looks
like an easier spot than the Risen Star, so I'm optimistic a top-three finish
is within reach for American Promise.
Selections
1st: Rapture
2nd: American Promise
3rd: Getaway Car
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Virginia Derby?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
