By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
Five weeks out from the
Kentucky Derby (G1), two pivotal prep races are on the agenda.
The $1.5 million Arkansas
Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park and the $1 million Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream
Park have both drawn promising fields. We'll analyze both in this week's
edition of Unlocking Winners.
Arkansas Derby (G1)
There's risk involved with
betting a maiden winner stepping into the Grade 1 ranks while stretching out
three furlongs in distance. But I'm optimistic the talent of #9 Cornucopian will trump his
inexperience in the Arkansas Derby.
Sold for $1.1 million as a
yearling, Cornucopian made a powerful impression when debuting in a six-furlong
maiden special weight on Feb. 23 at Oaklawn. The Bob Baffert-trained son of
Into Mischief broke on top, set fractions of :21.86 and :45.50, and then
accelerated his final two furlongs in :11.91 and :11.61 to win by 5 3/4 lengths
in 1:09.02.
Any way you slice it, this
was a huge performance. Cornucopian earned a 100 Beyer Speed Figure, and the
fact he accelerated down the homestretch bodes well for his chances of
stretching out over 1 1/8 miles for the Arkansas Derby. Keeping in mind the
example of Taiba—a Baffert-trained six-furlong maiden winner who won the 1
1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby (G1) in his second start—I believe Cornucopian can
handle the step up in class and distance at Oaklawn. He's my choice to win.
#8 Coal Battle (7-2)
and #6 Sandman (3-1) are other logical
contenders. Coal Battle has won four straight stakes, including the 1 1/16-mile
Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn. Sandman exits top-three finishes in the Rebel and
Southwest (G3) over this track. Of the pair, I give an edge to the versatile
Coal Battle, who moved sooner into a hot Rebel pace than Sandman and still
finished 1 3/4 lengths ahead of his rival.
But don't count the maiden #3 Publisher (6-1) out of the mix for a
top-three finish. Conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, who upset
last week's Louisiana Derby (G2) with Rebel fifth-place finisher Tiztastic,
Publisher rallied for fourth place in the Rebel despite getting squeezed badly between
rivals in the homestretch. He fought gamely through that adversity to close
ground and finish two lengths behind Sandman. Perhaps adding blinkers will
sharp Publisher's speed and help him stay closer to the early pace, leaving him
with less work to do down the homestretch.
Florida Derby (G1)
#10 Sovereignty (8-5) is doubtlessly the horse to beat in
the 1 1/8-mile Florida Derby. An impressive winner over Tiztastic and Sandman
in the Street Sense (G3) last fall, Sovereignty opened 2025 with a rallying
triumph in the 1 1/16-mile Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream. In a race that
ended at the sixteenth pole, Sovereignty overcame the shortened homestretch to
prevail by a neck over the previously undefeated River Thames.
But I'm going to bet on
Baffert to score a Grade 1 double this week. I believe #8 Madaket Road (7-2) can spring a mild upset.
Madaket Road has displayed
promising form on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. He finished third in the
Robert B. Lewis (G3) behind champion two-year-old male Citizen Bull, one of the
favorites for the Kentucky Derby. Then he ran second in the Rebel, beaten only
1 1/4 lengths by Coal Battle after setting intense fractions of :22.47, :45.72,
and 1:10.94.
Madaket Road was the only
speed horse to remotely survive the Rebel pace. His closest pursuers—Lecomte
(G3) third-place finisher Innovator and two-time stakes winner Smoken
Wicked—faded to finish 12th and 13th, beaten 20 3/4 lengths and 27 1/2 lengths.
Furthermore, the horse who raced fourth in the early going—Southwest (G3)
winner Speed King—gave way to finish 10th by 15 lengths.
Viewed from this
perspective, Madaket Road ran a giant race in the Rebel, especially considering
he'd never previously set the pace. Perhaps removing blinkers for the Florida
Derby (a 33% winning move for trainer Bob Baffert per Brisnet statistics) will
help Madaket Road return to rating tactics and settle behind a relaxed pace set
by Fountain of Youth third-place finisher #1
Neoequos (10-1) and flashy Gulfstream maiden winner #4 Disruptor (4-1). From there, Madaket Road can take first run at
the leaders and hold off Sovereignty down the homestretch.
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Arkansas Derby and Florida Derby?
*****
Want to test your handicapping skills against fellow Unlocking Winners readers? Check out the Unlocking Winners contest page—there's a new challenge every week! (Please note: older contest entries can be found here.)
*****
The Unlocking Winners Road to the Kentucky Derby Handicapping Challenge is back! Check out the special contest page to play along.
J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
