By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
Arguably the most wide-open
Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier taking place this Saturday (barring a
postponement due to heavy rain) is the $1.25 million Blue Grass (G1) at
Keeneland.
The seven-horse field is
small in size, but quality runs deep. Four of the entrants have won Road to the
Kentucky Derby qualifiers, including two who have scored Grade 1 wins. The
other three entrants have all earned Kentucky Derby qualification points.
Indicating the competitive
nature of the Blue Grass, the five favorites are listed at odds between 5-2 and
9-2 on the morning line. I think a case can be made for any of them to visit
the winner's circle.
I anticipate the Blue Grass
will unfold at an honest pace. #5 East
Avenue (3-1) dominated his first two starts when employing pacesetting
tactics, most notably taking Keeneland's Breeders' Futurity (G1) while benefitting
from a rail-biased track. He's since run poorly when stumbling at the start of
the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) and when beaten to the lead in a fast-paced Risen
Star (G2), finishing off the board in both races.
East Avenue enters the Blue
Grass off fast workouts and is slated to wear blinkers for the first time, so I
expect he'll gun for early lead. That could put him at odds with #4 Owen Almighty (3-1), who exits a
gate-to-wire 3 1/2-length romp in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3). While Owen Almighty
set a modest pace in the Tampa Bay Derby, three starts back he dueled through
fractions of :21.92 and :44.53 on his way to crossing the wire first in the seven-furlong
Pasco S., so we know he has serious early speed.
#1 River Thames (5-2)
is another possible pace player after drawing the rail. He's been prominent
early in all three of his starts, including when finishing a pace-pressing second
against a tough field in the Fountain of Youth (G2). While I have my doubts
whether River Thames will try to hold the rail against Owen Almighty and East Avenue,
he'll likely be a presence in the middle of the race if he takes back and
circles outside to track and press the leaders.
A quick pace could play to
the strengths of two well-regarded closers: #3 Burnham Square (9-2) and #6
Chancer McPatrick (7-2). I'll side with Chancer McPatrick as my top choice.
Chancer McPatrick ranked
among the best juveniles of 2024. He closed from out of the clouds to win his
debut dashing 6 1/2 furlongs at Saratoga, after which he unleashed similar deep-closing
rallies to take the Hopeful (G1) and Champagne (G1).
The Breeders' Cup Juvenile marked
Chancer McPatrick's two-turn debut, and he ran below expectations, closing mildly to fish sixth. But he was beaten only 6 1/2 lengths against a tough
field including champion two-year-old male Citizen Bull, Del Mar Futurity (G1)
winner Gaming, and future Sunland Park Derby winner Getaway Car.
I initially viewed the
Breeders' Cup Juvenile as evidence that Chancer McPatrick might be superior as
a one-turn sprinter/miler rather than a two-turn route racer, and I suppose that's still
a possibility. But I was encouraged by his 2025 debut in the two-turn Tampa Bay
Derby. Chancer McPatrick showed improved tactical speed tracking the modest pace in third
place before staying on to finish second. He was no match for Owen Almighty,
but pulled 2 3/4 lengths clear of Breeders' Cup Juvenile third-place finisher
Hill Road.
Chancer McPatrick entered
the Tampa Bay Derby off only half a dozen timed workouts since the Breeders' Cup, so it's unlikely he
was cranked for a peak performance. That's typical for highly regarded Kentucky
Derby contenders trained by Chad Brown. Brown has done excellent working preparing
accomplished juveniles to peak on Kentucky Derby day using a two-prep approach,
but the strategy often results in a season-opening defeat.
Examples include Good Magic,
who finished third in the Fountain of Youth (G2) before winning the Blue Grass (G2)
and finishing second in the Kentucky Derby; Zandon, third in the Risen Star
(G2) before winning the Blue Grass (G1) and finishing third in the Kentucky
Derby; Practical Joke, a distant second in the Fountain of Youth (G2) before finishing
second by less than one length in the Blue Grass (G2) and fifth in the Kentucky
Derby; and Normandy Invasion, fifth in the Risen Star (G2) before running a
close second in the Wood Memorial (G1) and fourth in the Kentucky Derby.
The key here is that Brown
trainees typically improve in their second and final prep for the Kentucky
Derby. With the Tampa Bay Derby and two more workouts under his belt, I
anticipate Chancer McPatrick will move forward in the Blue Grass. If East
Avenue, Owen Almighty, and River Thames deliver a fast tempo, Chancer McPatrick
can rate off the pace under Eclipse Award-winning jockey Flavien Prat before
rallying to victory in the homestretch.
As for Burnham Square, he
exits a subpar fourth-place finish in the Fountain of Youth. The
stretch-running gelding closed only a little ground down the homestretch to
finish 2 3/4 lengths behind River Thames.
However, two starts back,
Burnham Square unleashed an eye-catching finish to win the Holy Bull (G3) by 1
3/4 lengths over Tappan Street, who returned to win the Florida Derby (G1) in
his next start.
Burnham Square has turned in
a series of quick workouts since the Fountain of Youth, including five furlongs
in :59 3/5 at Churchill Downs. His recent work tab is flashier than the one he compiled in
between the Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth, and more akin to his pre-Holy Bull
exercises. I believe Burnham Square is geared up for a peak performance in
the Blue Grass, and a quick pace may allow him to close for a top-three finish.
Selections
1st: Chancer McPatrick
2nd: River Thames
3rd: Burnham Square
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Blue Grass?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
