By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
Seven months after it began,
the 2024-2025 Road to the Kentucky Derby concludes on Saturday with the running
of the $400,000 Lexington (G3) at Keeneland.
The 1 1/16-mile race is
unlikely to produce a Kentucky Derby (G1) starter, but we could certainly see a
Preakness (G1) contender or two emerge from this promising field.
Two Lexington entrants—#4 Rolando (6-1) and #9 Touchy (8-1)—seem destined to
scratch after competing in Keeneland's Lafayette S. on Monday. If that's the
case, we'll be left with seven starters.
#7 Praetor (2-1)
is the morning-line favorite, and it's hard to knock his credentials. He looked
like a serious Kentucky Derby contender last fall, when he led all the way to
win a one-mile maiden special weight at Aqueduct by a neck over Sovereignty,
who has since finished first in the Street Sense (G3), first in the Fountain of
Youth (G2), and second in the Florida Derby (G1).
Unfortunately, Praetor went
to the sidelines following that victory and didn't return to serious training
until late January. He returned to the races on March 9 in a one-mile $75,000
allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream Park, in which he pressed a solid pace
before drawing clear to win by 7 1/2 lengths.
I won't be surprised if
Praetor wins the Lexington, but there may be some chinks in his armor. For one,
his allowance win was a regression from a Beyer Speed Figure and Brisnet Speed
rating standpoint. For another, the Lexington marks his two-turn debut.
Lastly, there's a chance
Praetor will get caught up in an early speed duel with #6 Gosger (7-2). The latter withstood a sharp duel to win a
one-mile maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park last month, Both of Gosger's
pace rivals faded to finish out of the trifecta, so Gosger seems unlikely to
conceded the early Lexington lead to Praetor, especially since he's drawn
inside of Praetor.
What I'm building toward is
the notion that #8 Hypnus (6-1) can
win the Lexington. Unlike many of the Lexington entrants, Hypnus is dropping in
class out of tough Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifiers.
Two starts back, Hypnus rallied
through some traffic to finish seventh in the 1 1/16-mile Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn
Park. That turned out to be a tough race; third-place finisher Sandman returned
to win the Arkansas Derby (G1), while fifth-place runner Tiztastic came back to
win the Louisiana Derby (G2).
Speaking of the Louisiana
Derby, Hypnus took a shot at winning the 1 3/16-mile race at Fair Grounds, but
failed to factor while finishing seventh by 8 1/2 lengths. But he's bounced
back with a bullet half-mile over a muddy track at Churchill Downs in :47 1/5,
suggesting he's ready to roll in the Lexington.
In both the Rebel and the
Louisiana Derby, Hypnus dropped farther off the early pace than he did in his
Jan. 18 debut racing 1 1/16 miles at Oaklawn Park, in which he rallied from
just shy of midfield to win by 2 1/2 lengths with a promising 85 Beyer Speed
Figure. Hypnus is adding blinkers for the Lexington, and it's possible the
addition of headgear will sharpen his early speed and leave him with less
ground to close down the homestretch.
If that proves to be the
case, I believe Hypnus will be perfectly positioned to chase down Gosger and
Praetor in the Lexington, especially if those two set a quick pace. It wouldn't
be the first time trainer Kenny McPeek has won the Lexington with a horse
dropping in class off short rest. In 2017, McPeek sent out Senior Investment to
nab the Lexington only two weeks after finishing sixth by 5 3/4 lengths in the
Louisiana Derby. For all these reasons, Hypnus is my top choice to prevail this
Saturday.
#3 Bullard (9-2)
is bound to draw some support after rallying to finish first in the Bob Hope
(G3) and second in the San Vicente (G2) sprinting seven furlongs. But he
benefited from a blazing pace in the Bob Hope, and I think there's a chance
Bullard is more of a stretch-running sprinter than a two-turn router.
One double-digit longshot I
recommend considering is #2 Bracket
Buster (20-1). While he's yet to run particularly fast on the Beyer Speed
Figure or Brisnet Speed rating scales, he hasn't raced since October and is
eligible to improve with maturity. He was last seen finishing fifth behind
Sovereignty, Tiztastic, and Sandman in the Street Sense, and the Lexington
looks like a more manageable assignment.
Selections
1st: Hypnus
2nd: Praetor
3rd: Gosger
4th: Bracket Buster
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Lexington?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
