By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
The Road to the Kentucky
Derby is complete, and the field is coming into focus for the 2025 Kentucky
Derby (G1). It's time to ponder an annual handicapping question: how fast a
pace will unfold in the Run for the Roses?
As the old saying goes, pace
makes the race, and that's certainly the case in the Kentucky Derby. A fast
pace often leads to a stretch-running winner (like 80-1 longshot Rich Strike in
2022), while a modest or slow tempo can favor horses racing up front.
Judging from the prospective
entries for this year's Kentucky Derby, the pace is going to be blazing.
There are plenty of speed
horses and proven pacesetters taking aim at the Derby, and here's the problem: many
have run well below form when beaten to the early lead.
Need examples? Here you go:
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East Avenue is
brilliant when racing on the lead. He won his debut by eight lengths, smashed
the Breeders' Futurity (G1) by 5 1/4 lengths, and finished second by a nose in
the Blue Grass (G1). But when he was beaten to the lead in the Breeders' Cup
Juvenile (G1) and Risen Star (G2), he finished ninth and tenth by double-digit
margins.
-
Rodriguez clocked
a fast final time when wiring the Wood Memorial (G2) by 3 1/2 lengths. He
earned a 101 Beyer Speed Figure, slightly better than the 100 he posted when
wiring a Santa Anita maiden special weight by seven lengths. In between,
Rodriguez was beaten to the front when second in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) and
third in the San Felipe (G2), races in which he earned far lower Beyers of 91
and 90.
-
Citizen Bull earned
champion two-year-old male honors after wiring the American Pharoah (G1) and
Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1). He kicked off 2025 with a gate-to-wire score over
Rodriguez in the Robert B. Lewis. But he was beaten to the lead in the Santa
Anita Derby (G1), and although he later got to the front via a midrace duel,
Citizen Bull tired in the homestretch to finish fourth by 9 3/4 lengths.
-
Owen Almighty has
crossed the wire first in two stakes: the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and the Pasco S.
In both races, he led at every call. The rating tactics he employed when second
in the Sam F. Davis S. and sixth in the Blue Grass weren't as successful.
-
American Promise runs
best when allowed to set or press the pace. Four starts back, he wired a fast
Oaklawn Park maiden special weight over future Arkansas Derby (G1) runner-up
Publisher, earning a 95 Beyer. He then regressed to Beyers in the 80s when
rating during the early stages of the Southwest (G3) and Risen Star (G2), two
races in which he finished off the board. Returning to forwardly placed tactics
for the Virginia Derby worked wonders—he pressed the pace on his way to victory
by 7 3/4 lengths with a 95 Beyer.
-
Madaket Road isn't
necessarily a need-the-lead type; he placed in the Bob Hope (G3) and Robert B.
Lewis after rating off the pace in small fields. But he's dashed to the lead in
his last two starts, finishing second in the Rebel (G2) and fourth in the
Florida Derby (G1), so Madaket Road is another with enough speed to influence
the Kentucky Derby pace.
-
Admire Daytona set
the pace or vied for the lead throughout the UAE Derby (G2), refusing to give
up his position along the inside. He also broke his maiden in Japan with
forwardly placed tactics. He wasn't nearly as effective after falling off the
pace in the Hyacinth S. on the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby; he could only
rally mildly to finish fourth.
-
Neoequos isn't
in the Kentucky Derby field yet, but if defections allow him to start, he's yet
another prospective pace player. Both of his wins have come while setting or
pressing the pace, and he also ran well with pacesetting tactics to finish
third in the Fountain of Youth (G2).
Any way you slice it, that's
a lot of speed. In particular, horses like East Avenue, Rodriguez, Citizen Bull,
Owen Almighty, and American Promise figure to ensure a fast pace since they've
run meaningfully better when able to race up front, and rating in the Kentucky
Derby could be risky. One or more figure to sprint hard in search of the early
lead, and the result could be an opening quarter-mile in :22-and-change, a swift
half-mile in :45-and-change, and six furlongs in 1:10-and-change.
A fast pace would suit the
many talented closers taking aim at the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Santa Anita Derby
winner Journalism and Florida Derby
(G1) victor Tappan Street figure to
settle in behind the leaders and take first aim turning for home, since they
have tactical speed combined with tractability. Then, down the homestretch,
deep closers like Blue Grass winner Burnham
Square, Arkansas Derby (G1) hero Sandman,
Louisiana Derby (G2) conqueror Tiztastic,
Florida Derby runner-up Sovereignty,
and even Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) winner Final
Gambit will aim to make their presence felt.
It's possible a talented
speed horse—perhaps Rodriguez—will hang around for a top-three finish even
after partaking in a fast pace. But overall, I expect I'll be favoring the
chances of late runners in the 2025 Kentucky Derby.
Now it's your turn! How do
you envision the Kentucky Derby pace unfolding?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
