By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
The 2025 Kentucky Derby (G1)
is barely more than one week away. Post positions will be drawn on Saturday, after
which we can start finalizing our betting strategies.
Journalism is expected to
start as a clear favorite in the Kentucky Derby, and I'm confident he'll prevail
on the first Saturday in May. But three double-digit longshots have also caught
my eye, and I intend to use them in exotic wagers.
1. Citizen Bull
If you draw a line through
Citizen Bull's disappointing fourth-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby (G1),
it's hard to knock his credentials.
The champion two-year-old
male of 2024 posted gate-to-wire wins in the American Pharoah (G1) and Breeders'
Cup Juvenile (G1) last year, counting Del Mar Futurity (G1) winner Gaming and
future Sunland Park Derby hero Getaway Car among his beaten rivals. And Citizen
Bull started 2025 on a winning note, wiring the Robert B. Lewis (G3) by 3 3/4
lengths over future Wood Memorial (G2) winner Rodriguez.
Now granted, the Santa Anita
Derby was a big step backward for Citizen Bull. He led with three furlongs
remaining, but gave way steadily down the homestretch to finish 9 3/4 lengths
behind the winner.
But perhaps we can look at
Citizen Bull's performance in a different light:
-
The Santa Anita Derby
was a tough race. The winner, Journalism, posted a 102 Beyer Speed Figure (the
highest number from any of the final-round preps) and is the favorite for the
Kentucky Derby.
-
Citizen Bull entered
the Santa Anita Derby off a two-month layoff. Trainer Bob Baffert has been
saying since last year that Citizen Bull is a heavy horse who benefits from racing,
and Citizen Bull may have been short of peak fitness for the Santa Anita Derby.
Fitness shouldn't be an
issue for the Kentucky Derby. Citizen Bull got back on the work tab just eight
days after the Santa Anita Derby and has worked every five days since then,
going half a mile in :47 3/5, six furlongs in 1:11 4/5, and seven furlongs in 1:24
1/5.
Furthermore, the Daily Racing Form reports Citizen Bull
will race without blinkers for the first time in the Kentucky Derby, a change
that could help Citizen Bull work out a favorable trip settling behind the expected
fast pace at Churchill Downs.
There's a good chance
Citizen Bull will start around 20-1 odds in the Kentucky Derby, so if you're
willing to forgive his Santa Anita Derby misfire, you'll get a good price on a talented
horse with many positives in his corner.
2. Final Gambit
Some bettors may hesitate to
support Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) winner Final Gambit because he's never run on
dirt. In my opinion, Final Gambit's lack of dirt experience makes him more
intriguing as a longshot because switching surfaces gives him a clearer path to
significant improvement than other longshots in the Derby field.
I liked Final Gambit's
performance in the Jeff Ruby Steaks. The early pace wasn't overly slow—22.97, :47.91,
and 1:12.84—yet Final Gambit blazed his final three furlongs in :36.21 and his
final furlong in :11.91 to close from 8 3/4 lengths back and win by 3 1/2
lengths.
In the years since Turfway
Park switched from Polytrack to Tapeta in time for the 2021 Jeff Ruby, the race
has had better luck producing serious Kentucky Derby contenders. In 2022, Rich
Strike clocked the final three furlongs of the Jeff Ruby in :36.89 before
upsetting the Kentucky Derby at 80-1. In 2023, Two Phil's finished the Jeff
Ruby in :36.93 before running a game second in the Kentucky Derby.
As a son of Not This Time
out of a mare by Tapit, Final Gambit has the pedigree to shine while switching
to dirt. Don't leave this improving colt off your tickets.
3. Grande
Rodriguez is receiving
well-deserved acclaim for his gate-to-wire, 3 1/2-length romp in a fast edition
of the Wood Memorial. But runner-up Grande also deserves respect for a strong
showing.
Coming off maiden and
allowance victories running long at Gulfstream Park, Grande performed well with
a tricky trip in the Wood Memorial. He was caught very wide around the first
turn, but steadily advanced through the middle of the race, drawing within 1
1/2 lengths of the lead with three furlongs remaining. In doing so, he ran his
second and third quarter-miles in :23.85 and :23.98.
Even after making this big
middle move, Grande managed to run his final three furlongs in a sharp :37.24
to finish second, 3 1/2 lengths behind Rodriguez. He lost ground to Rodriguez
at the top of the stretch, but gained back half a length through the final
furlong. Considering Grande raced wide around the second turn as well, this was
an admirable performance.
Grande pressed the early
pace in both of his victories, but in the Wood Memorial he showed he can be
effective as a closer. If he gets a faster pace to work with in the Kentucky
Derby, I can envision Grande passing a lot of horses down the homestretch to
snatch a top-four finish at 15-1 or even 20-1 odds.
Now it's your turn! Which
longshots do you like in the 2025 Kentucky Derby?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
