By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
The 2025 Kentucky Derby (G1)
at Churchill Downs is almost here. Months of prep races have produced a strong
field for Saturday's 151st edition of the "Run for the Roses."
This is my 12th year
handicapping the Kentucky Derby on Unlocking Winners. My Derby record stands at
11-4-1-0 (36%); I would have had a fifth winner if Maximum Security hadn't been
disqualified for causing interference in 2019.
I'm optimistic I'll catch my
fifth winner in 2025:
Top Choice
#8 Journalism (3-1)
I find it difficult to make
a case against Journalism as the most likely winner of the Kentucky Derby. The
beautifully bred son of Curlin out of Mopotism has gone 4-for-4 since
stretching out around two turns (earning triple-digit Brisnet Late Pace ratings
in all four of those starts), and along the way he's conquered tough
competition in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), San Felipe (G2), and Santa Anita
Derby (G1).
In the San Felipe,
Journalism ran fast on the clock, earning a powerful 108 Beyer Speed Figure
that tops the Kentucky Derby field. In the Santa Anita Derby, he was bumped and
forced to steady at a pivotal moment around the far turn, but shrugged off the
incident to re-rally and prevail by three-quarters of a length with a 102
Beyer.
Journalism is the fastest
horse on paper and has drawn well in post 8, which should allow him to settle
into a perfect midfield position behind the early speed horses while saving
some ground. From there, Journalism can wind up his relentless drive around the
final turn and down the homestretch to win convincingly. It's been years since
I've felt this confident that a horse will win the Kentucky Derby.
Secondary Contenders
In rough order of
preference, the following seven horses are ones I intend to play underneath
Journalism in vertical exotic wagers like the trifecta and superfecta:
#18 Sovereignty (5-1)
Sovereignty first emerged as a
serious Kentucky Derby contender in October 2024, when he dominated the Street
Sense (G3) at Churchill Downs by five lengths over Tiztastic and Sandman. He
kicked off 2025 with a rallying triumph in the Fountain of Youth (G2), then finished
second in the Florida Derby (G1) off a relatively light workout regimen.
Sovereignty closed the final three furlongs of the Florida Derby in a sharp
:37.21 to finish only 1 1/4 lengths behind the victorious Tappan Street, and he's
trained sharply since then, suggesting he's sitting on a big performance in the
Kentucky Derby.
#7 Luxor Cafe (15-1)
Luxor Cafe could be any sort
of star after rattling off four straight wins in Japan. He finished fast over a
slow track to dominate the Fukuryu S. by five lengths, and his acceleration in
that 1,800-meter contest was visually spectacular. Luxor Cafe is one of few
horses I can envision upsetting Journalism in this Kentucky Derby, because we
don't yet know how he stacks up against the best American three-year-olds, and
there's a chance this son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah will stack up
quite well.
#4 Rodriguez (12-1)
Rodriguez is dangerous when
allowed to set the pace. Racing without blinkers for the first time in the Wood
Memorial (G2), he set a comfortable pace before rocketing his final three
furlongs in :36.95 to draw clear and win by 3 1/2 lengths. There's plenty of
talent here, but consistency isn't necessarily a strong suit for Rodriguez-two
starts back, he was beaten to the lead in the San Felipe (G2) and tired to
finish third, 11 1/4 lengths behind Journalism. The break will be key for Rodriguez-if
he's able to find a comfortable position on or near the lead, I think he'll be
formidable in the Churchill Downs homestretch.
#3 Final Gambit (30-1)
Final Gambit has never run
on dirt, and that's a little concerning since he's drawn an inside post and is
bound to encounter some dirt kickback early on. But this deep-closing colt has
a serious finishing kick, as he demonstrated when sprinting the final three
furlongs of the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) in a blazing :36.21 to romp by 3 1/2
lengths. He's trained well on dirt at Churchill Downs, and I expect him to be
closing ground down the Kentucky Derby homestretch. It's just a question of
whether he'll drop too far back early on to catch up late.
#21 Baeza (12-1)
The rapidly improving Baeza
finished second by three-quarters of a length to Journalism in the Santa Anita
Derby despite racing greenly. This half-brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner
Mage has lots of talent and potential, but he feels like a work in progress
whose best efforts will come sometime down the road. That doesn't mean Baeza
can't vie for a top-four finish in the Kentucky Derby, though doing so from
post 20 (if he draws in off the also-eligible list) could be tricky.
#1 Citizen Bull (20-1)
Six-time Kentucky
Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert felt Citizen Bull was short of peak fitness
when finishing fourth in the Santa Anita Derby, so Baffert has sent out the son
of Into Mischief to record four fast workouts leading up to the Kentucky Derby,
including seven furlongs in 1:24 1/5 at Santa Anita and five furlongs in a
bullet :58 2/5 at Churchill Downs. Two starts back, Citizen Bull led all the
way to beat Rodriguez by 3 3/4 lengths in the Robert B. Lewis (G3), and a
return to that level of form could make the reigning champion two-year-old male
a dangerous Kentucky Derby longshot. If Citizen Bull is able to make the lead
from post 1 (a task easier said than done), he may take this field a
surprisingly long way on the front end.
#10 Grande (20-1)
Grande put up a gallant
fight against Rodriguez in the Wood Memorial. Despite racing wide around both
turns, he closed his final three furlongs in a sharp :37.24 to finish second by
3 1/2 lengths. The son of Curlin is progressing in the right direction and has
the pedigree to relish stretching out over 1 1/4 miles, so he's eligible to vie
for a top-four finish if he can save some ground under three-time Kentucky
Derby-winning jockey John Velazquez.
Possible Contenders
In order of post positions,
these six horses are ones I will consider including in deep vertical exotic
wagers. However, for various reasons I'm less confident in these horses and I
don't anticipate betting on outcomes where more than one of them finishes in
the top four:
#9 Burnham Square (12-1)
Burnham Square has beaten
some quality horses on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, including Florida Derby
(G1) winner Tappan Street, but he benefited from a sharply decelerating pace
when rallying to win the Blue Grass (G1) by a nose over a compact field.
#11 Flying Mohawk (30-1)
Flying Mohawk showed nice
finishing speed in the Jeff Ruby Steaks, finishing second to Final Gambit while
clocking his final three-eighths of a mile in :37.22. There's at least an
outside chance Flying Mohawk will run a giant race while switching to dirt, but
his pedigree is geared strongly toward success on dirt and synthetic, so the
surface switch is a question mark for this son of Breeders' Cup Mile (G1)
winner Karakontie.
#14 Tiztastic (20-1)
Tiztastic stormed home from
off the pace to win the Louisiana Derby (G2) by 2 1/4 lengths, but much like
Burnham Square in the Blue Grass, he benefited from a fast early/slow late race
shape. The Louisiana Derby unfolded at a blazing tempo favorable to late
runners, and I'm not sure how much room Tiztastic has for improvement in the
Kentucky Derby.
#16 Coal Battle (30-1)
Coal Battle defeated future
Arkansas Derby (G1) winner Sandman (see below) and Tiztastic when taking the
Rebel (G2) two starts back, so we know he has serious talent. But he moved too
soon into a thoroughly destructive pace in the Arkansas Derby, ultimately
tiring to finish third by seven lengths against Sandman. A more patient trip in
the Kentucky Derby should help Coal Battle maximize his performance, but I
wonder if 1 1/4 miles is little too far for this speedily bred son of Coal
Front.
#17 Sandman (6-1)
After recording top-three
finishers in the Street Sense (G3), Southwest (G3), and Rebel (G2), Sandman
broke through with a deep-closing 2 1/2-length triumph in the Arkansas Derby.
But the blazing early pace gave Sandman a perfect setup, and he raced greenly
in response to the whip down the homestretch. A 20-horse Kentucky Derby field
isn't easy to navigate for deep closers, and I wonder if Sandman will leave
himself with too much to do in the final quarter-mile of the Kentucky Derby.
#19 Chunk of Gold (30-1)
Chunk of Gold raced
significantly closer to the blazing Louisiana Derby pace than eventual winner
Tiztastic, but even still he was beaten only 2 1/4 lengths in a solid
performance. He previously ran second in a lightning fast edition of the Risen
Star (G2), so I can envision a scenario in which Chunk of Gold settles midfield
or so in the Kentucky Derby before closing for a spot in the superfecta. But he
may need a favorite or two to misfire.
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
