By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
The Saturday in between the
Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness (G1) presents an opportunity for possible Belmont
(G1) contenders to shine in the $200,000 Peter Pan (G3) at Aqueduct's "Belmont
at the Big A" meeting.
The 1 1/8-mile race for
three-year-olds turns out a Belmont winner every once in a while. Examples from
the last dozen years include Tonalist (2014), Sir Winston (2019), and Arcangelo
(2023).
This year's Peter Pan has
drawn a 10-horse field containing quite a bit of talent and potential. Five of
the entrants are Road to the Kentucky Derby alumni, including #8 Captain Cook (2-1), the slight
morning-line favorite and the horse to beat in my opinion.
Captain Cook first caught
eyes when he employed pace-pressing tactics to smash a seven-furlong maiden
special weight over a sloppy track at Aqueduct by 9 1/4 lengths. He
subsequently demonstrated strong form over a dry track when stretching out over
1 1/8 miles in Aqueduct's Withers S. on the Road to the Kentucky Derby,
tracking the pace in third place before taking over to score by 2 1/4 lengths.
That effort yielded a 94
Beyer Speed Figure, the highest number in the Peter Pan field. And guess who
owns the second-highest number? It's also Captain Cook. In the 1 1/8-mile Wood
Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct, his most recent start, Captain Cook pressed the pace
in second place before weakening in the final furlong to finish fourth by 6 3/4
lengths against high-profile Preakness (G1) contender Rodriguez. The Wood
Memorial elapsed in the fast time of 1:48.15, and even in defeat Captain Cook
earned a 91 Beyer.
There isn't much pace entered
in the Peter Pan field, so Captain Cook has every chance to work out a
picture-perfect trip setting a slow tempo. Securing an uncontested lead should
leave Captain Cook with plenty in the tank to kick on down the homestretch and
win comfortably. He's my choice to win.
#4 Hill Road (5-2)
is another logical contender. Formerly based in Ireland, the son of Quality
Road made his dirt and U.S. debut in the 1 1/16-mile Breeders' Cup Juvenile
(G1) last fall. After settling at the back of a 10-horse field, Hill Road
closed ground to finish third by 4 3/4 lengths against champion two-year-old
male Citizen Bull.
Hill Road likely wasn't
cranked for a peak performance when making his 2025 debut in the 1 1/16-mile
Tampa Bay Derby (G3), but even still he rallied into strong closing fractions
to finish third by 6 1/4 lengths against future Kentucky Derby fifth-place
finisher Owen Almighty.
Unfortunately, a fever
caused Hill Road to miss an intended start in the Wood Memorial. He went three
weeks between workouts, and while he's posted trio of timed workouts since
getting back on the work tab, the Peter Pan may prove to be more of a prep race
for the Belmont than a goal in and of itself.
That's one reason why I
believe #6 Uncaged (8-1) can get
involved for a top-two finish at more enticing odds. The beautifully bred son
of Curlin out of the Pioneerof the Nile mare Dark Nile caught my attention when
he rallied to win his debut sprinting six furlongs at Saratoga last summer. The
fact Uncaged won sprinting as a juvenile is noteworthy since he's bred top and
bottom to shine running long at ages three and older.
Uncaged went to the sidelines
after his debut and started 2025 with a fourth-place finish in a six-furlong
$75,000 allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream Park. But he improved when
stretching over one mile for his second start of the season. In a $100,000
allowance optional claimer at Aqueduct, Uncaged closed from the back of a
six-horse field to score by 1 3/4 lengths.
Uncaged has yet to run
especially fast on the Beyer scale, but he's also yet to race around two turns.
The Peter Pan affords him an opportunity to stretch out around two turns for
the first time, and his pedigree suggests he'll relish the change in
configuration. Even if a slow pace unfolds in the Peter Pan, I expect Uncaged
to make his presence felt down the homestretch.
Candidates to finish in the
Peter Pan superfecta include #1 Vassimo (5-1),
who finished fourth in the Risen Star (G2) and sixth in the Louisiana Derby
(G2) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby; #3
Surfside Moon (8-1), runner-up to Captain Cook in the Withers; #5 McAfee (8-1), the fifth-place
finisher from the Wood Memorial; and #10
Lordship (12-1), a stoutly bred debut winner racing one mile and 40 yards
at Tampa Bay Downs.
Selections
1st: Captain Cook
2nd: Uncaged
3rd: Hill Road
4th: Vassimo
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Peter Pan?
*****
Want to test your handicapping skills against fellow Unlocking Winners readers? Check out the Unlocking Winners contest page—there's a new challenge every week! (Please note: older contest entries can be found here.)
*****
The Unlocking Winners Road to the Kentucky Derby Handicapping Challenge is back! Check out the special contest page to play along.
J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
