By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
Although Kentucky Derby (G1)
winner Sovereignty is skipping Saturday's 150th running of the $2 million
Preakness (G1) at Pimlico, the second leg of the Triple Crown has nevertheless drawn
a quality field.
A couple of proven Grade 1
winners have joined the nine-horse lineup, along with a bevy of promising
up-and-comers. You can make a case for anyone to challenge for a top-three
finish, but as far as win potential goes, I'm confident #2 Journalism (8-5) ranks a cut above the rest.
Granted, I had equal
confidence in Journalism's ability to win the Kentucky Derby, and that proved
misplaced since he was beaten to second place at Churchill Downs. But I believe
Journalism ran an admirable race under challenging circumstances in the
Kentucky Derby.
Making his first start over
a sloppy track, Journalism ran into plenty of trouble during the opening three
furlongs. He was bumped at the start, and continued to bump with rivals down
the stretch and into the first turn. He was forced into a tight spot along the
inside and started tossing his head at one point, perhaps in reaction to
kickback or perhaps because of the tight quarters—it's difficult to tell
watching the replay.
In any case, Journalism didn't
give up. Heading down the backstretch, he found himself racing alone and was
able to steer outside for room. He launched a menacing rally around the far
turn and briefly took over the lead in the homestretch before Sovereignty ran
him down by 1 1/2 lengths.
This was an excellent effort
considering Journalism raced as many as 5 1/4 lengths closer to hot pace
fractions of :22.81, :46.23, and 1:10.78 than Sovereignty did. Even in defeat,
he earned a 102 Beyer Speed Figure matching the number he received for his
Santa Anita Derby (G1) triumph.
Facing a much smaller field
in the Preakness, Journalism figures to receive a cleaner trip. He remains one
of the best three-year-olds in training, and with Sovereignty skipping the
Preakness, Journalism has a perfect opportunity to secure a classic win of his
own. He's my choice to win.
For second place, I'm keen
to support #8 Clever Again (5-1).
The son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah has gone 2-for-2 since
returning from a long layoff and stretching out around two turns. First he
wired a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Oaklawn Park by 3 1/4 lengths, and
then he led all the way to take Oaklawn's one-mile Hot Springs S. by four
lengths.
Clever Again's Hot Springs
performance was excellent. He set a sharp pace and kicked clear down the
homestretch to defeat Del Mar Futurity (G1) winner and Breeders' Cup Juvenile
(G1) runner-up Gaming by four lengths. Gaming then flattered that form by
returning to finish third by 3 1/2 lengths in a deep renewal of the Pat Day
Mile (G2) on Kentucky Derby Day at Churchill Downs.
Clever Again posted a flashy
101 Beyer in the Hot Springs, and his pedigree suggests there's a chance he'll
relish stretching out over 1 3/16 miles in the Preakness. He'll have to reckon
with a few other pace players at Pimlico, but Clever Again strikes me as a
talented colt with plenty of upside for improvement. If anyone can upset
Journalism, it might be Clever Again.
#1 Goal Oriented (6-1)
is another horse who figures to race forwardly, especially after drawing the
rail. He's gone 2-for-2 under the care of eight-time Preakness-winning trainer
Bob Baffert, most recently wiring a 1 1/6-mile $125,000 allowance optional
claimer on Kentucky Derby Day at Churchill Downs. The question is, can he
handle stepping up sharply in class and distance while running back in just two
weeks?
I actually prefer the
chances of #6 River Thames (9-2) to
crack the top three. He has tactical speed, but has thus far proven more
tractable than Goal Oriented and Clever Again, so he ought to work out a cozy
trip tracking the pace in third or fourth position.
River Thames dominated his
first two starts before performing well in a couple of tough Road to the
Kentucky Derby qualifiers. In the 1 1/16-mile Fountain of Youth (G2), he led in
midstretch before settling for second place by a neck against Sovereignty. Then
in the 1 1/8-mile Blue Grass (G1), he fought gallantly between rivals down the
homestretch to finish third by three-quarters of a length. The top two
finishers, Burnham Square and East Avenue, performed decently when finishing
sixth and eighth in the Kentucky Derby.
I do question whether 1 3/16
miles is a suitable distance for River Thames; his pedigree suggests shorter
trips might be preferable. But his talent may compensate sufficiently to land a
spot in the Preakness trifecta.
#7 Sandman (4-1)
started as the second choice in the Kentucky Derby, but after dropping back to
18th place for the first six furlongs, he rallied only mildly to finish seventh
by 12 1/2 lengths. It's a little surprising that he didn't close with more
interest, since the quick pace resulted in late runners sweeping the Kentucky
Derby superfecta. Perhaps Sandman didn't care for racing over a sloppy track,
but if that's the case, he could be in trouble at Pimlico—there's rain in the
forecast for Baltimore this week, so there's a chance he'll encounter sloppy
footing again.
Sloppy or not, I'm inclined
to lean against Sandman since his rallying triumph in the Arkansas Derby (G1)
two starts back was aided by a pace meltdown. I don't anticipate the Preakness
unfolding at a blazing tempo, so Sandman will have to avoid falling too far off
the pace if he wants to close for better than third or fourth place.
#9 Gosger (20-1)
is an improving longshot fresh off a two-length win in the Lexington (G3) at
Keeneland, but Beyer Speed Figures and Brisnet Speed ratings suggest a spot in
the superfecta may be the ceiling for his potential. The same can be said of #5 Pay Billy (20-1), winner of the
Federico Tesio S. and Private Terms S. at Laurel Park. And I question whether
the form of UAE Derby (G2) runner-up #4
Heart of Honor (12-1) will stack up well at Pimlico, since UAE Derby winner
Admire Daytona finished last in the Kentucky Derby.
Rounding out the Preakness
field is #3 American Promise (15-1),
an intriguing longshot conditioned by seven-time Preakness-winning trainer D.
Wayne Lukas. American Promise raced close to the hot pace in the Kentucky Derby
and made a bid between rivals before tiring to finish 16th.
Two starts back, American
Promise faced easier competition in the 1 1/8-mile Virginia Derby and employed
pace-pressing tactics to obliterate his rivals by 7 3/4 lengths. He's not the
most consistent horse in training, but every now and then American Promise
steps up and fires a big shot—usually when he finds a comfortable position on
or near the lead. He may not get the right setup while facing Goal Oriented and
Clever Again in the Preakness, but I wouldn't dismiss American Promise as a
superfecta contender. His best effort is good enough to factor here.
Selections
1st: Journalism
2nd: Clever Again
3rd: River Thames
4th: Sandman
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Preakness?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
