Looking for an Upset in the Charles Town Classic

On April 18th, the racing world will turn its attention to Charles Town racetrack in West Virginia, where the $1,500,000 Charles Town Classic (gr. II) is the highlight of a thirteen-race card featuring eight stakes races. The star of the show will be Shared Belief, whose seemingly unlimited potential and accomplishments thus far have placed him in the position to stamp himself as an all-time great with a strong season this year. So with this background of excitement in mind, let’s take a look at the entries!

The Charles Town Classic is an intriguing and difficult race to handicap due to the six-furlong "bullring" nature of the track, which can make good horses look great and cause great horses to struggle. Game On Dude, one of the best horses of the last several years, ran in the race on three occasions and arguably underperformed each time, winning by a half-length in 2013 and finishing second in 2012 and 2014.

This brings us to the intriguing question of what to do with Shared Belief, who will be a very heavy favorite in the Charles Town Classic. The son of Candy Ride has won ten of his eleven starts, with his only defeat coming in a roughly-run renewal of the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Furthermore, his two races this year have been stellar—a decisive victory over California Chrome in the San Antonio Invitational (gr. I) and a romping 4 ¼-length triumph in the Santa Anita Handicap (gr. I). In terms of Beyer speed figures, he towers over his opposition, and it will be a major upset if he loses this race.

That said, this will be his first start outside of California, and his first start over a bullring racetrack. If there’s ever going to be a race in which he is vulnerable, this is probably the one. So given that he is bound to be an odds-on favorite, I’m going to try and beat him with a horse offering better odds.

One logical candidate to pull the upset is Imperative, who rebounded from a 17 ¾-length defeat in the 2014 Santa Anita Handicap to upset Game On Dude in last year’s Charles Town Classic. For his effort, he earned a career-best 107 Beyer, a figure he matched when third to Shared Belief in the 2014 Pacific Classic (gr. I). However, Imperative has not been in the best of form since then, finishing no better than fifth in his last five starts, and most recently coming home 12 ½ lengths behind Shared Belief when eighth in the Santa Anita Handicap. Still, his form wasn’t that much better leading into the 2014 Charles Town Classic, and it’s possible that a return to the site of his biggest success could yield a much-improved performance.

Moreno should also be right in the thick of things. The front-running winner of the 2014 Whitney Handicap (gr. I) returned from a layoff to finish second behind Shared Belief in the Santa Anita Handicap, then shipped to Fair Grounds and was beaten a half-length when third in the New Orleans Handicap (gr. II) after a race-long battle for the lead. He ran well to finish third in this race last year off a layoff, but figures to be challenged from the outset by Warrioroftheroses, and I’m not sure he will be able to hang on in the homestretch against the closers.

This brings us to General a Rod, who competed in all three legs of the Triple Crown last year, with his best finish being a fourth-place effort in the Preakness. Given a long rest after the Belmont, he returned to finish fourth in a seven-furlong allowance race at Gulfstream Park, after which he was transferred from the barn of Mike Maker to Todd Pletcher. In his second start off the layoff, he fired off a huge effort to win the 8.5-furlong Challenger Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs with a 104 Beyer, running the third quarter-mile in about :23 4/5 and the final five-sixteenths in about :30 3/5 to win by 6 ¼ lengths. Furthermore, the horses he defeated have come back to run very well—runner-up Old Time Hockey won the Tampa Turf Classic Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs, and third-place finisher Neck ‘n Neck came back to run second in the Ben Ali Stakes (gr. III) at Keeneland. Having landed a favorable outside post position, and with some speed in the race to help set up his late run, I think General a Rod can work out a great trip and repeat his performance from the Challenger, which might be enough to defeat Shared Belief if the latter doesn’t fire his best shot.

Now it’s your turn! Who do you like in the Charles Town Classic?

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In order to aid in handicapping the Derby, here is a current list of the top 23 Derby contenders, along with the replays of their last three races. Also, here are links to the Kentucky Derby prep race schedule and the complete entries and current standings for our "Road to the Kentucky Derby" Handicapping Challenge. Enjoy the racing!

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