By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
Get ready, everyone! The 2018 Breeders' Cup World
Championships at Churchill Downs kick off tomorrow afternoon, and in
preparation for the two fantastic days of racing, I've compiled what might be
the longest Unlocking Winners blog post of all time—some 6,500 words analyzing
all fourteen races.
As suggested by one of my Twitter followers, I've added a
new feature to my Breeders' Cup selections this year—a "Confidence Level"
rating that ranks how confident I am that my top choice will win. The ratings
range from "1" (translation: I'm taking a stab with a longshot) to "5" (I'll be
legitimately surprised if this pick loses), and I hope they'll provide a little
deeper insight into my plays.
Without further ado, let's get started!
Breeders'
Cup Juvenile Sprint
Top
Selection: Trainer Wesley Ward has made a name for
himself conditioning brilliant two-year-old sprinters, so it's no surprise that
he'll be represented by four of the twelve starters in this race. My preference
among his quartet is for the filly #4
Stillwater Cove, who beat stablemate Chelsea Cloisters convincingly in the
5 ½-furlong Bolton Landing Stakes at Saratoga before attempting to stretch her
speed to a mile in the Natalma Stakes (gr. I) at Woodbine. It was her
performance in the latter race that really caught my eye, as Stillwater Cove tracked
a very fast pace before seizing command to lead by a length at the eighth pole.
While she ultimately tired to finish fifth, she was only beaten four lengths
and should relish the cutback in distance for the Juvenile Turf Sprint. Is she
the most likely winner? Probably not. But at 20-1, she seems like a significant
overlay and I'm expecting a very good run for my money. Confidence Level: 2
Second
Choice: #8 Sergei Prokofiev ran well in his debut over
the left-handed all-weather course at Dundalk, which is a subtle but perhaps
significant fact in his favor since several of the other well-regarded European
shippers in this race have never run over a turning course. Sergei Prokofiev's
overall race record is actually similar to that of his Aidan O'Brien-trained
stablemate Declarationofpeace, who won last year's Juvenile Turf Sprint at Del
Mar before the race had been deemed an official Breeders' Cup event. Both colts
found themselves overmatched in the Phoenix Stakes (Ire-I) and the Middle Park
Stakes (Eng-I), two of Europe's most prestigious sprints for juveniles, but
both colts also ran well at Dundalk, and Sergei Prokofiev actually achieved a
pretty high level of form (quite a bit higher than Declarationofpeace) while
winning the Cornwallis Stakes (Eng-III) at Newmarket last month with a 103
Timeform Rating. O'Brien's top jockey Ryan Moore has the mount, which is always
a good sign.
Breeders'
Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
Top
Selection: Ask me for my best bet of the Breeders' Cup,
regardless of odds, and I'll quickly point you toward #6 Newspaperofrecord. Trainer Chad Brown has won this race four
times, including three times in the last four years, and I expect him to secure
a fifth victory with this Irish-bred daughter of Lope de Vega. Quite simply, Newspaperofrecord
has looked like a beast in her first two starts, breaking her maiden by 6 ¾
lengths with a pace-tracking trip at Saratoga before employing front-running
tactics to crush eight rivals by 6 ½ lengths in the Miss Grillo Stakes (gr.
II). Both of those races were contested over yielding turf courses, so the soft
course expected on Friday should be no obstacle for Newspaperofrecord. She's
drawn well in post position six, has the tactical speed to stay out of trouble,
and hasn't been remotely challenged in her first two starts. What's not to
like? I think it's going to take a monstrous effort to beat her. Confidence Level: 5
Second
Choice: #13 My Gal Betty may have moved hair too soon when
finishing second in the Natalma Stakes (gr. I) at Woodbine last time out, but
she was only beaten a length on the day and is already proven over yielding
ground, having won the Catch a Glimpse Stakes at Woodbine by 4 ¼ lengths.
Interestingly, the last three times the Breeders' Cup has been held in
Kentucky, the Juvenile Fillies Turf winner prepped in the Natalma, which seems
to be part of a greater trend of Woodbine-based turf runners faring better than
usual when the Breeders' Cup is held in Kentucky. My Gal Betty might not beat
Newspaperofrecord, but I do think she can finish on the board at a nice price.
Live
Longshot: #9 Varenka has been beaten in all three of her starts,
but that includes a couple of runner-up efforts in stakes races conducted over
yielding turf courses. Last time out, she was no match for Newspaperofrecord in
the Miss Grillo Stakes, but Varenka did finish clearly best of the rest with a
rally from the back half of the field. For the Breeders' Cup, she picks up the
services of the Eclipse Award-winning jockey Jose Ortiz, and with the right trip,
she could be involved late at 20-1.
Breeders'
Cup Juvenile Fillies
Top
Selection: I could go a lot of different directions
here, but ultimately, I'm going to bank on the notion that #2 Serengeti Empress might just be a star in the making. Her
effortless 13 ½-length victory in the seven-furlong Ellis Park Debutante Stakes
was impressive to behold, given how she set a quick pace and just powered clear
of her rivals in the homestretch, but she looked even better stretching out to
8.5 furlongs in the Pocahontas Stakes (gr. II) over the same track and distance
as the Juvenile Fillies, drawing away with complete authority to win by 19 ½
lengths. There are several other front-runners in this field and I'm a little
concerned about Serengeti Empress getting burned up on the front end, but I
also don't think we've seen the best she has to offer yet. Drawing post two
should help her save ground on the turns, and her 7-2 morning line odds seem
quite fair. Confidence Level: 3
Second
Choice: #10 Bellafina has done little wrong in her first four
starts, which includes three straight graded stakes victories in California by
a minimum of 4 ¼ lengths. She's got lots of speed and has shown the ability to
rate off the lead, which is always a plus, but she has not been finishing
particularly fast and I wonder if she could be a little vulnerable today while
trying to work out a good trip from the outside post in a field where many of
her rivals share her running style.
Live
Longshot: There's a ton of speed in this field, and not many of the
top contenders have shown the ability to finish fast, so I can certainly
envision a scenario where the Juvenile Fillies falls apart late and the door
opens for a filly like #1 Reflect to
come running late and finish on the board. Trained by Keith Desormeaux, Reflect
showed some talent sprinting this summer, but took a big step forward when
stretched out around two turns for the Darley Alcibiades Stakes (gr. I). In
that race, Reflect broke from the rail and seemed a bit rank and uncomfortable
racing inside and behind horses, even tossing her head around at one point, but
when she got running room, she came on with a nice rally to finish second and
was gaining on the winner late. Had she been able to make an earlier move, the
outcome might have been different. At 15-1, she's definitely one I'll use in
the exotics and even the multi-race wagers.
Breeders'
Cup Juvenile Turf
Top
Selection: I outlined last week why I believe #14 Anthony Van Dyck is the most likely
winner of the Juvenile Turf, and while I'm not thrilled to see him draw the far
outside post position, I think wide draws are sometimes overestimated at the
Breeders' Cup and I'm not going to jump off the bandwagon for this reason
alone. Remember, Hit It a Bomb won the Juvenile Turf from post #14 in 2015, and
the following year Oscar Performance prevailed from the #13 stall. Good horses
can overcome poor post draws, and I think Anthony Van Dyck is a very good
horse. Confidence Level: 4
Second
Choice: As I mentioned last week, #5 Line of Duty showed a nice turn-of-foot to overcome a troubled
trip and win the Prix de Conde (Fr-III) last month at Chantilly, and the
third-place finisher—the filly Wonderment—gave the form of that race a boost by
coming right back to beat some quality colts in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud
(Fr-I). Trainer Charlie Appleby has won with two of his three Breeders' Cup
starters so far, and I think Line of Duty is very well-meant in this race.
Live
Longshot: With plenty of rain expected at Churchill Downs this week,
the turf should be soft and that could benefit #6 Henley's Joy. The progeny of Kitten's Joy tend to excel on soft
turf, and Henley's Joy has already shown a lot of potential on firm turf,
winning his debut and the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Stakes before finishing
second by just a nose in the Bourbon Stakes (gr. III) at Keeneland. I think
he'll drift up from his 8-1 morning line odds and offer value for the exotics.
Breeders'
Cup Juvenile
Top
Selection: There isn't much wagering value in this
opinion, but I have been very impressed by #9
Game Winner this year and believe he's a cut above his rivals in the
Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Trained by Bob Baffert, who has won this race three
times before, Game Winner is unbeaten in three starts and has already established
his class by winning the Del Mar Futurity (gr. I) and American Pharoah Stakes
(gr. I) in succession with eye-catching Beyer speed figures of 93 and 97. Even
better, Game Winner is versatile and can rate behind the leaders, which could
be very valuable given that this Juvenile field is packed with front-runners
and speed horses. I envision Game Winner sitting a perfect trip a few lengths
off the pace before rallying to win at a short price. Confidence Level: 4
Second
Choice: #6 Complexity is also unbeaten and made a terrific
visual impression winning the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) by three lengths in
gate-to-wire fashion. His connections have voiced some concerns about his
ability to handle longer distances, and the Juvenile could be a stiff test
since he'll be tackling two turns for the first time and facing a field filled
with speed, but it's obvious that this son of Maclean's Music has a ton of
talent and he might just be good enough to overcome the obstacles.
Live
Longshot: #12 Gunmetal Gray was no match for Game Winner
in the American Pharoah, but he did stay on gamely in the homestretch to secure
the runner-up spot with a 90 Beyer, his second strong effort going two turns.
Like Game Winner, Gunmetal Gray has shown the ability to settle off the pace,
and that could come in handy if the pace is hot and some of the more
highly-regarded front-runners start to tire in the homestretch.
Breeders'
Cup Filly & Mare Sprint
Top
Selection: I count at least nine runners in this field
who frequently race on or near the lead, which should ensure that the pace of
this seven-furlong sprint is hot right from the start. That should play right
to the strengths of #13 Marley's Freedom,
who has rattled off three straight graded stakes victories for trainer Bob
Baffert. The daughter of Blame was particularly impressive while overcoming a
wide trip and a slow early pace to rally and win the seven-furlong Ballerina
Stakes (gr. I) at Saratoga, seizing command in the homestretch and pulling away
with power to win by 3 ¼ lengths under Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith. I like
how Marley's Freedom ran the third quarter-mile in about :23 1/5 and the final
furlong in :12.47 seconds, suggesting that she's very well-suited to this
seven-furlong distance.
True, Marley's Freedom hasn't run since August, but the
long layoff doesn't bother me since Baffert has won several Breeders' Cup races
in recent years with horses returning from similar layoffs—think American
Pharoah, Arrogate, and Drefong. For her Ballerina effort, Marley's Freedom earned
a 100 Beyer—the second triple-digit number of her career—and if she gets a
quicker pace on Saturday, I think she'll come rolling in the homestretch to win
again. Confidence Level: 3
Second
Choice: #5 Golden Mischief has been steadily progressing this year
for trainer Brad Cox and enters the Filly & Mare Sprint off of three
straight stakes wins, including a hard-fought triumph in the Thoroughbred Club
of America Stakes (gr. II) at Keeneland, which has historically been a very
productive prep for this race. Yes, Golden Mischief only won by a head with a
94 Beyer, but take note, the early pace was slow and RacingFlow.com assigned
the race a Closer Favorability Ratio (CFR) of 7, indicating a speed-favoring
race, so under the circumstances I give Golden Mischief extra credit for
running down the leaders with a final quarter-mile in about :23 2/5. On October
28th, she signaled her readiness for the Breeders' Cup by breezing
four furlongs in a bullet :47 flat at Churchill Downs, the fastest of 113
morning workouts at that distance. She looks ready to roll, and if she stays at
her 10-1 morning line odds, she might even be a better win play than Marley's
Freedom. However, I do expect her odds to drop, perhaps significantly so. In
any case, I have a lot of confidence that either Marley's Freedom or Golden
Mischief will win this race, and I'd be tempted to use only these two in
multi-race wagers.
Breeders'
Cup Turf Sprint
Top
Selection: I feel like almost anyone could win this
race, so I'll take a shot in the dark with #8
Chanteline, a six-year-old mare who might get overlooked in the wagering.
Formerly a capable dirt sprinter, Chanteline has emerged as a force to reckon
with on turf over the last year and enters the Turf Sprint off victories in the
Smart N Fancy Stakes at Saratoga and the Buffalo Trace Franklin County Stakes
(gr. III) at Saratoga. In both races, she settled in fourth place before rallying
in the final furlong while earning Beyers of 104 and 99, the two best numbers
of her career. Runners that prepped at Keeneland have fared very well when the
Turf Sprint has been held in Kentucky, and Chanteline ran reasonably well over
a soft turf course in the Caress Stakes at Saratoga three starts back,
finishing second after tracking quick early fractions. I wouldn't go about
singling her in any multi-race wagers, but her 15-1 morning line odds are
appealing and I think she's got as good a chance as anyone else to win this
race. Confidence Level: 1
Second
Choice: The condition of the turf course shouldn't be an issue
for #11 World of Trouble, a
three-year-old who is 2-for-2 on turf, with both of those victories coming in
stakes races over rain-soaked courses. In the 5 ½-furlong Quick Call Stakes at
Saratoga, he used his speed to win in gate-to-wire fashion, while in the
six-furlong Allied Forces Stakes at Belmont, he tracked a fast opening
quarter-mile before taking command and powering away to score by 5 ¾ lengths
with a 103 Beyer. He also showed his class against high-quality dirt horses
while finishing just a neck behind the four-time graded stakes winner Promises
Fulfilled in the Woody Stephens Stakes (gr. II), a race in World of Trouble
made a middle move into a blazing :43 3/5 half-mile fraction. 6-1 seems like a
bit of a short price in this wide-open field, but I don't think he's
overmatched here, even while facing older runners for the first time.
Breeders'
Cup Dirt Mile
Top
Selection: I had originally intended to pick #1 City of Light in this spot, and I
still respect his chances a great deal—he's a two-time Grade 1 winner, he's won
going as far as nine furlongs in top company, and he had a very wide trip when
second in the Forego Stakes (gr. I) last time out. But wouldn't you know it, I've
talked myself into picking #3 Isotherm instead,
and while that might seem crazy at first glance, let me outline my reasoning.
Ever since he broke his maiden going two turns on grass in
2015, Isotherm has been campaigned primarily as a turf horse, and for logical
reasons—he's a two-time graded stakes winner over the surface. But his
connections have occasionally tried him on dirt, running him against high-class
competition in the 2015 Breeders' Cup Juvenile and the 2017 Santa Anita
Handicap (gr. I), and while he was never a serious factor in either race, the
fact that he was tried on dirt at all speaks of his connections' belief that he
might be able to handle the surface.
Interestingly, Isotherm returned to dirt again this
summer after a string of defeats on grass and showed new life, finishing second
with a wide trip behind the capable Dabster in the Harry F. Brubaker Stakes
going a two-turn mile at Del Mar. He then stepped up sharply in class for the
nine-furlong Awesome Again Stakes (gr. I) at Santa Anita and ran one of the
best races of his career. After tracking the pace in third place, Isotherm made
a strong mid-race move (third quarter in less than :24 seconds) to challenge for
the lead around the far turn, and after staying in contention to the eighth
pole, he flattened out only slightly to finish third behind the Breeders' Cup
Classic favorites Accelerate and West Coast. Remarkably, he was beaten just a
half-length by West Coast.
Obviously, this was a big step in the right direction for
Isotherm, and the way he ran—making a mid-race move and then flattening
out—suggests to me that he's a horse that might appreciate the cutback to a
one-turn mile. The two previous Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile winners at Churchill
Downs were cutting back in distance from longer races, including Dakota Phone,
who upset the 2010 Dirt Mile at odds of 37-1 one start after finishing third in—you
guessed it—the Awesome Again (then known as the Goodwood Stakes).
Beyond the two favorites, this Dirt Mile seems pretty wide-open,
so at the very least I think Isotherm can offer a lot of value for the trifecta
and/or superfecta, And if the pace gets hot up front, maybe—just maybe—he can
spring a really memorable upset. Confidence
Level: 1
Second
Choice: #10 Catalina Cruiser has done nothing wrong in
his first four starts, winning them all by a minimum of 2 ¼ lengths while
posting Beyers of 89, 107, 107, and 103. He won the San Diego Handicap (gr. II)
going 8.5 furlongs by 6 ¾ lengths against a quality field, and he crushed the
2017 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile winner Battle of Midway by 7 ¼ lengths in the seven-furlong
Pat O'Brien Stakes last time out. If Catalina Cruiser brings his A-game, he'll
be tough to beat, but the son of Union Rags hasn't run since August, and
trainer John Sadler doesn't have the best record with horses returning from
layoffs or with shipping horses outside of California. For those reasons, plus
the fact that Catalina Cruiser will be a clear favorite, I'm tempted to try to
beat him while respecting that he is the most likely winner of the race.
Breeders'
Cup Filly & Mare Turf
Top
Selection: Trainer Chad Brown has won this race three
times, and while his #6 Sistercharlie has
beaten her stablemate #1 Fourstar Crook twice
this year, the latter was able to turn the tables by a head in the 1 ¼-mile New
York Stakes (gr. II)—the longest of their three meetings—and I suspect going 1
3/8-miles will further shift the advantage in favor of Fourstar Crook. Whereas
Sistercharlie missed her final prep race for the Filly & Mare Turf,
Fourstar Crook was able to contest the 1 ¼-mile Flower Bowl Invitational (gr.
I) at Belmont, in which she rallied from behind a slow pace over a rain-soaked
course to win by two lengths. Fourstar Crook has been improving steadily over
the last two years and seems to be peaking just in time for the Breeders' Cup. I
think she'll relish the conditions on Saturday and can spring a mild upset
under jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr., who won this race for Brown in 2015 aboard
Stephanie's Kitten. Confidence Level: 4
Second
Choice: #3 Wild Illusion is a very classy three-year-old with
three Group 1 wins under her belt, including a victory over Breeders' Cup Mile
entrant Polydream in the Prix Marcel Boussac (Fr-I) over a soft course last
year. She also finished second in the Epsom Oaks (Eng-I) over a rain-soaked
course, so no matter how wet the turf gets on Saturday, it shouldn't affect her
chances. She enters the Breeders' Cup off decisive wins in the Nassau Stakes
(Eng-I) and Prix de l'Opera Longine (Fr-I), both going 1 ¼ miles, and as
mentioned previously, trainer Charlie Appleby has fared very well with his
previous Breeders' Cup starters, even winning this race last year with Wuheida.
Wild Illusion might not have the most breathtaking
turn-of-foot, but the Churchill Downs homestretch is a bit longer than at most
U.S. tracks, so that should help Wild Illusion's chances a bit. The 1 3/8-mile
distance of the Filly & Mare Turf could also be an equalizer since she
boasts very high-class form going 1 ½ miles. For my top choice, this race is
really a tossup between Wild Illusion and Fourstar Crook; I'll use them both
equally in the multi-race wagers.
Live
Longshot: #14 Eziyra didn't get the best draw, but this
lightly-raced four-year-old has run very, very well over wet courses in Europe,
most recently winning the Blandford Stakes (Eng-II) over yielding ground at the
Curragh. Her best Timeform Ratings aren't far behind those posted by Wild
Illusion, and Eziyra's lone defeat this year came in the prestigious Yorkshire
Oaks (Eng-I), where she finished behind only the high-class fillies Sea of Class
(runner-up in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe) and Coronet. For good measure, she's
run very well over left-handed courses at Leopardstown, York, and Tipperary,
and the legendary jockey Frankie Dettori will be in the saddle.
Breeders'
Cup Sprint
Top
Selection: Three-year-olds have historically fared well
in the Sprint, including three winners since 2012, and I'm expecting #2 Promises Fulfilled to become the
latest sophomore to defeat his elders at the Breeders' Cup. This sensationally
fast son of Shackleford has wicked early speed—enough to run a half-mile in
:43-and-change on two occasions this summer—and while he won the H. Allen
Jerkens Stakes (gr. I) going seven furlongs at Saratoga, I think he might be
even better going six furlongs. Certainly he was impressive over this distance
in the Phoenix Stakes (gr. II) at Keeneland last month, in which he sprinted
the first two quarters in :22.50 and :22.59, but still came home in a strong
:23.96 to defeat the very capable older sprinters Whitmore and Limousine
Liberal in a tight finish.
Notably, Promises Fulfilled appears to have missed a
workout prior to the Phoenix since he entered the race with no official breezes
in two weeks; that won't be the case on Saturday, as he worked a half-mile in a
solid :48 2/5 on October 28th. I expect to see Promises Fulfilled
sprint hard for the lead from post position two, and from there, it could be
easier said than done for any of his older rivals to run him down. Confidence Level: 3
Second
Choice: The favorite #5
Imperial Hint would be the obvious choice, but while he showed brilliance
in his two Grade 1 wins this year, he was also facing fields of overall questionable
quality, and when he faced the much tougher Witmore in the True North Stakes
(gr. II), he was all-out to win by a neck. At 9-5, I view Imperial Hint as an
underlay, so for my second choice I'll take #8 Limousine Liberal. The six-year-old gelding is a true "horse for
the course" with a 6-for-8 record at Churchill Downs, but his recent form has
been slightly sullied by tough trips, which should ensure that he starts at a
nice price. In the Forego Stakes (gr. I) two starts back, he endured a very wide
trip but was beaten just 1 ½ lengths at the finish by Whitmore and City of
Light, and in the Phoenix Stakes against Promises Fulfilled and Whitmore, he
never got a clear run down the homestretch but was still beaten just a
half-length despite this traffic-filled trip. I think Limousine Liberal might
be a bit better going seven furlongs than six, but his obvious affinity for
Churchill Downs is a big asset, and if he finally gets a reasonable trip, he
can be right there at the finish.
Breeders'
Cup Mile
Top
Selection: No, this is not a sentimental play, though I'm
sure longtime readers of this blog are well aware that I've been a big fan of #15 Divisidero for years. As a
one-dimensional deep closer, this son of Kitten's Joy has been frequently
compromised by slow paces, but he seems relatively immune to such scenarios
when racing at Churchill Downs, where he's won three of his four starts. That includes
two renewals of the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (gr. I), in which the
runners-up were the high-class World Approval (winner of the 2017 Breeders' Cup
Mile) and Beach Patrol (second in the 2017 Breeders' Cup Turf). Furthermore, I
think Divisidero would be unbeaten in four starts at Churchill Downs if not for
a tough trip in the Wise Dan Stakes (gr. II) back in June, in which he got
shuffled back in traffic around the far turn, but came running strongly when
finally in the clear to be beaten less than a length.
Need any more reasons to consider Divisidero? Let me
offer a few....
1. He's
proven over wet courses, having won the 2017 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic over
a course officially labeled "good," but which seemed quite a bit softer than
that.
2. He's
consistent if nothing else; if you like Beyer speed figures, he's cracked the
97 mark in each of his last 16 starts, a streak that includes 11 triple-digit
Beyers. None of his North American-based rivals can boast a similar record.
3. He
had absolutely no chance whatsoever in the Woodbine Mile (gr. I) last time out,
a race in which the front-running winner Oscar Performance ran the first
half-mile in :48.78 and the second half-mile in a blazing :44.34. So extreme
was this setup that RacingFlow.com assigned the race a Closer Favorability
Ratio (CFR) of 1 on a scale of 1 to 100—you can't get any more speed-favoring
than that. As a result, the Woodbine Mile was essentially a parade from start
to finish, so Divisidero deserves some credit for sticking right with that
rapid final half-mile to be beaten just 3 ½ lengths.
4. Four
of the last seven Breeders' Cup Mile winners prepped in the Woodbine Mile.
5. Thanks
to the large field, Divisidero might actually get a meaningful pace to close
into this time.
How often can you get 30-1 odds on a two-time Grade 1
winner with a strong record over the local course? Even if he doesn't win, Divisidero
could give a huge boost to the exotic payoffs in he finishes in the money. I'm
definitely not counting him out and believe he has a legitimate chance to win
the whole thing. Confidence Level: 2.5
Second
Choice: #5 Oscar Performance may have had things his own
way in the Woodbine Mile, but regardless, you have to admire a horse who can
run the final half-mile of a one-mile race in :44.34 second. That was his
second impressive win going a mile this year, following a North American
record-equaling run in the Poker Stakes (gr. III) at Belmont Park, and he's
actually unbeaten in three starts going a mile, with his first (and arguably
most prestigious) victory over the distance coming in the 2016 Breeders' Cup
Juvenile Turf (gr. I).
The field size alone should ensure that the Breeders' Cup
Mile unfolds at a somewhat more contested clip than the Woodbine Mile, but on
paper, Oscar Performance seems to have a clear pace advantage and should have
every chance to work out a winning trip. I actually think he would be an
overlay at his 6-1 morning line odds and I will absolutely use him in all my
multi-race wagers.
Breeders'
Cup Distaff
Top
Selection: Outside of the two favorites, this race looks
pretty wide-open, and when you consider that one of the favorites is coming off
a career-worst effort and the other is a three-year-old facing older rivals for
the first time, maybe this isn't a two-horse race after all. So why not
consider #10 Blue Prize? This five-year-old
Argentinean-bred mare has won her last three starts at Churchill Downs (all
graded stakes races), and I was intrigued by her erratic victory in the
Spinster Stakes (gr. I) at Keeneland last time out. After seizing command
coming off the far turn, Blue Prize wound up wandering to the inside and then
ducking out severely, losing a lot of ground in the process. Despite this
strange run, Blue Prize held on to win with a reasonably solid 94 Beyer, and I
don't think there's any doubt she could have won by much more (and with a much
higher Beyer) had she maintained a straight course.
Jockey Joe Bravo was riding Blue Prize for the first time
that day, so since he's had a chance to learn some of her quirks, he can
hopefully help her stay more focused on Saturday. If one or both of the
favorites come up vulnerable, Blue Prize could be poised to capitalize at a
nice price. Confidence Level: 2
Second
Choice: If not for a disqualification for drifting around in the
homestretch of the Cotillion Stakes (gr. I), #11 Monomoy Girl would enter the Distaff having won five
consecutive Grade 1 races. Even still, this exciting three-year-old is a neck
away from having crossed the wire first in all ten of her starts, a streak that
includes three victories in four races at Churchill Downs, most memorably a
hard-fought triumph in the Kentucky Oaks (gr. I). She's got plenty of tactical
speed and should be able to work out a good trip from her outside draw, though it
could be important to make sure she doesn't strike the front too soon, as she's
shown a tendency to lose focus on the lead, which proved costly in the
Cotillion.
I would be fully on board the Monomoy Girl bandwagon
except for the fact that she's never run against older horses and has received some
pretty soft pace setups in her most impressive victories. I wonder if a testing
nine furlongs might be a hair beyond her best; remember, she had to dig deep to
win the Kentucky Oaks, a race that unfolded at only a mildly quicker clip than she
typically encounters.
Live
Longshot: The rapidly-improving #1 Champagne Problems won the Groupie Doll Stakes (gr. III) this
summer and finished second behind Blue Prize in both the Locust Grove Stakes
(gr. III) and the Spinster Stakes (gr. I), so if I like Blue Prize, I have to
like Champagne Problems by extension. Drawing the rail should help this
daughter of Ghostzapper work out a ground-saving trip under the Hall of Fame
jockey Calvin "Bo-Rail" Borel, and I think she has every chance to finish in
the trifecta or superfecta at 12-1.
Breeders'
Cup Turf
Top
Selection: I outlined two weeks ago why #2 Enable might have the best chance of
any horse yet to win the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-I) and the Breeders' Cup
Turf in the same season, and I'll stick by my conviction that she'll get the
job done this Saturday. Trained by John Gosden, who has four Breeders' Cup
victories on his record, this four-year-old daughter of Nathaniel has shown no
difficulty handling soft turf or left-handed turns; in fact, she won the 2017 Cheshire
Oaks over the nearly round course at Chester, so the turns at Churchill Downs
should be less of a challenge for her than for some European shippers. Also
significant is that Enable has plenty of tactical speed and the ability to
produce a terrific turn-of-foot in the homestretch, which should help her
secure the trip she needs and pounce to the lead when necessary. She'll be a
heavy favorite, but I do view her as the most likely winner. Confidence Level: 4
Second
Choice: #12 Waldgeist doesn't have quite the same turn-of-foot
as Enable, but this son of Galileo is a high-class multiple Group 1 winner with
great form at 1 ½ miles, and he was only beaten 1 ¾ lengths in the Arc while
weaving his way through traffic in the homestretch. Trainer Andre Fabre has won
the Turf three times before, and Waldgeist has handled all sorts of ground
conditions throughout his career, so nothing in that regard should bother him
on Saturday.
Live
Longshot: Maybe #11 Sadler's
Joy has lost a step or two over the last few months, or maybe he's been the
recipient of some tough trips and setups.
In any case, he was only beaten 2 ¼ lengths in the Breeders' Cup Turf
last year, and the three-turn configuration of the Turf at Churchill Downs should
be right in Sadler's Joy's wheelhouse. As a son of Kitten's Joy, he shouldn't
be bothered by the wet conditions on Saturday; indeed, he finished a close
third in the Bowling Green Stakes (gr. II) over a soft course at Saratoga this
summer, and he was also third with a tricky setup over soft turf in the Joe
Hirsch Turf Classic (gr. I) last time out. On that day, the inside seemed to be
the best part of the course, and Sadler's Joy unleashed an eye-catching rally
up the rail on the far turn before flattening out once shifted to the outside.
I don't expect him to win, but I do think he can outrun his 30-1 morning line
odds and finish in the top four once again.
Breeders'
Cup Classic
Top
Selection: I pretty much have to pick a longshot here
since I'm not overly enthusiastic about the morning line favorites, who all—in my
opinion—have some questions to answer. #14
Accelerate has been brilliant this year with four Grade 1 wins (including
three over the 1 ¼-mile distance of the Classic), but he seemed a bit dull in
the Awesome Again Stakes last month and his Beyer regressed sharply to a 100,
his lowest of the season. Throw in the fact that he's drawn the far outside
post and is shipping outside of California for only the second time of his
career, and I have to oppose him.
To lesser degrees, I also think #7 West Coast and #6
McKinzie could be vulnerable. West Coast has run just once since March,
finishing second in the Awesome Again after appearing to be out of gas on the
far turn. That was a solid enough comeback given that he wasn't fully cranked
for the race, but his runner-up effort in the Dubai World Cup (UAE-I) two
starts back was also a step down from his previous form, and I do wonder if
perhaps he's a little better going shorter than 1 ¼ miles. As for McKinzie, he's shown flashes of
brilliance in his first five starts, but he's lightly-raced, has never negotiated
1 ¼ miles, and has never faced a field remotely this competitive. Another
well-regarded contender is #11 Mind Your
Biscuits, but while he's got the proven class and is in great form, he's
been a sprinter for most of his career and has never tackled 1 ¼ miles-I just
think this distance, against this caliber of competition, might be too tough of
a test.
That's why I'm going to pin my hopes on #10 Yoshida. A former grass star who
won this year's Old Forrester Turf Classic (gr. I) at Churchill Downs, Yoshida
made the switch to dirt for the Woodward Stakes (gr. I) two months ago, and his
resulting performance was eye-catching. After settling comfortably inside of
horses early on, showing no hesitation handling the unfamiliar dirt kickback,
Yoshida shifted to the far outside on the final turn and powered relentlessly
down the homestretch to catch the leaders and win going away by two lengths. I
loved how he finished full of run with a final furlong in less than :12 2/5—to my
eye, he was just getting going as he came down to the wire.
Beforehand, the Woodward field was billed as being somewhat
weak, but three of the beaten runners have come right back to win graded stakes
races, including the third-place finisher Leofric (who won the Grade 2 Fayette
Stakes at Keeneland last week) and Discreet Lover (who upset the Grade 1 Jockey
Club Gold Cup).
The main track at Churchill Downs has a reputation for
playing kindly toward turf horses, so if Yoshida can handle the dirt at
Saratoga, he might be even better at Churchill Downs. Furthermore, six of the
eight renewals of the Breeders' Cup Classic at Churchill Downs were won by late
runners who trailed by significant margins after the opening half-mile, so
Yoshida's running style would appear to fit this race and track very well. His
trainer, Bill Mott, has already won the Classic twice with Cigar (1995) and
Drosselmeyer (2011), and he's given Yoshida a couple of solid workouts at
Churchill Downs to prepare him for this race. Call it a hunch, but I'm
expecting a big run from Yoshida, and we might even get a better price than his
10-1 morning line odds. Confidence
Level: 3
Second
Choice: I was all set to pick #2 Roaring Lion until he drew post position two; given that he's
never run on dirt before and prefers to race from off the pace, this could
potentially leave him boxed in behind horses early on, where we have no idea
how he'll react to the kickback.
But on class alone, I'd argue that this three-year-old
son of Kitten's Joy might be the best horse in the field. He's a true 1 ¼-mile
specialist with the raw talent to compete in high-class races going both longer
and shorter, and he's rattled off four straight Group 1 wins in Europe since
July, defeating such accomplished runners as Saxon Warrior and Poet's Word in
such storied prizes as the Coral Eclipse Stakes (Eng-I), Juddmonte
International (Eng-I), QIPCO Irish Champion Stakes (Eng-I), and Queen Elizabeth
II Stakes (Eng-I).
Roaring Lion's victory in the Queen Elizabeth II came
just two weeks ago, and he had to work hard to win over a soft course that wasn't
his preference, but I think the one-mile distance was ideal for getting him to
the Classic in top shape. The 2008 Breeders' Cup Classic winner Raven's Pass
and the 2000 runner-up Giant's Causeway both used the Queen Elizabeth II as a
springboard to their strong efforts in the Classic, though granted, the Queen Elizabeth
II used to be held earlier in the year and they had more time recuperate before
the Breeders' Cup.
Ultimately, I have just enough questions about Roaring
Lion to keep him from being my top choice, but on talent alone he has to be
considered a threat and I will use him strongly in multi-race wagers.
Now, after more than 6,500 words, it's your turn! Who do
you like in the fourteen Breeders' Cup races?
*****
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*****
J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, blogger, videographer, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite. He is the founder of the horse racing website www.theturfboard.com.
